France’s Le Pen Leads in Presidential Election First-Round Poll

(Bloomberg) -- French nationalist leader Marine Le Pen would lead in the first round of the presidential election with as much as 36% if it took place on Sunday, according to an Ifop poll of voting intentions.

Most Read from Bloomberg

• Google and Amazon Struggle to Lay Off Workers in Europe

• Nassim Taleb On What Bitcoiners, Anti-Vaxxers, VCs and Deadlifters Are Getting Wrong

• China Restraint on Taiwan Shows Xi Has Bigger Concerns Now

• Traders on Guard Hoping for ‘Just Right’ Jobs Data: Markets Wrap

• Top Tax Mistakes to Avoid If You Make More Than $100,000

The constitution doesn’t allow Emmanuel Macron to run for a third consecutive term as president in 2027, so the pollster tested some of his allies as potential candidates. These include his former prime minister, Edouard Philippe, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin and Francois Bayrou, president of centrist party Modem.

None of them would beat Le Pen in the first round, according to the poll of 1,105 adults carried out via Internet on March 30-31 for Le Figaro Magazine and Sud Radio. Philippe comes closest with as much as 28%, though still three points shy. The margin of error is 1.4-3.1 percentage points.

France’s president is elected in a two-round system, with the two candidates with the most votes in the first facing each other in a runoff, assuming neither obtains more than 50%.

In the last election a year ago, Le Pen had 23.2%, compared with Macron’s 27.9%. He won the second round with 58.6%.

An Elabe poll of 1,808 adults carried out via Internet on April 3-5 for BFM TV shows 55% would vote for Le Pen in a re-run of the runoff against Macron today.

The president and his allies went on to lose their absolute majority in legislative elections in June last year, when Le Pen’s far-right National Rally became the biggest single opposition party.

Since a series of nationwide strikes and protests against Macron’s plan to raise the minimum retirement age began in mid-January, she’s adopted a discreet stance and fell short of urging her supporters to join the movement, saying they were free to make their own choice.

In a separate poll of 1,002 adults on March 28-29 by Ifop for Paris Match, 58% said Le Pen understands their concerns and 57% that she’s attached to democratic values, while 52% consider her to be competent and 51% capable of reforming the country. She has the stature of a president, according to 47% of those surveyed.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

• Scaramucci’s SkyBridge Capital Was Spiraling, and Then Came FTX

• Apple’s Complex, Secretive Gamble to Move Beyond China

• Xi Jinping Launches a Charm Offensive to Repair China’s Tattered Image

• Thanks to Putin, Business Is Booming for Germany’s Defense Contractors

• What to Do With Your Money—and Your Life—in a Wild New World

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.