Franklin to blast Hispaniola with torrential rain

Tropical Storm Franklin made landfall in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday morning and will emerge along the northern coast of Hispaniola in the afternoon. AccuWeather meteorologists are concerned about the risk of life-threatening conditions in the Dominican Republic and Haiti associated with excessive rainfall.

As of Wednesday midday, the center of Franklin was located 65 miles to the south-southwest of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, and was moving northward at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 mph with higher gusts.

Tropical storm warnings were in effect along the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, the southern coast of Haiti and the Turks and Caicos located north of Hispaniola on Wednesday.

"While Franklin was holding onto tropical storm status on Tuesday, [the storm] struggled to form a single consolidated center," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. Maximum sustained winds had dipped to 40 mph for a time on Tuesday, which was just above the minimum threshold for a tropical storm. A tropical storm has sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Conditions began to change quickly Tuesday night as the storm began to consolidate and pick up some forward speed. Brushlike high-level cirrus clouds were evident over top of the storm -- which was a sign of strengthening.

With a somewhat more compact center, steering breezes have begun to push Franklin along.

Tropical Storm Franklin appears in the middle of this image of the Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic captured on Wednesday morning, Aug. 23, 2023. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite)

When heavy rain falls on the steep slopes, the likelihood of flash flooding, mudslides and washouts also increases, and that is the primary reason for a moderate to high risk to lives, property and infrastructure in the region.

On Hispaniola, Franklin is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.

A general 2-4 inches of rain will fall on the island of Hispaniola.

However, a zone where 8-12 inches of rain will fall will be centered on the Dominican Republic, and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches over the mountains is expected. Rainfall of this magnitude will lead to major flooding.

Much of the rain may fall in 24 hours or less.

As the system churns in the northern Caribbean, waves and rip currents will build along with the risk of storm surge flooding.

A storm surge of 3-6 feet is most likely to occur along part of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday.

While the main threats from Franklin in the Dominican Republic and Haiti will be from flash flooding and mudslides, enough strong winds are likely to occur and knock down trees, damage poorly constructed buildings and lead to power outages.

Damage from winds is expected to be relatively minor, but falling trees and flying debris can be serious hazards for pedestrians.

Because of a more compact storm, when compared to the start of the week, most of the impacts in the Caribbean will be felt on Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos, rather than in Puerto Rico. However, there may still be locally drenching, gusty thunderstorms on Puerto Rico and perhaps Jamaica and eastern Cuba due to the proximity of the storm.

The Turks and Caicos will experience the worst effects from Franklin later Wednesday and Wednesday night as the storm pulls to the north of Hispaniola. During this time, surf will build, winds will pick up and areas of heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms are likely.

The mountains which extend thousands of feet above the landscape on Hispaniola may halt any strengthening process or could lead to some loss of wind intensity while this system moves across the island. However, the system is likely to strengthen while turning toward the northeast, north of the Caribbean later this week.

Franklin is likely to become a hurricane north of the Caribbean, forecasters say, following the only other such system to do so in the Atlantic so far this season. That system was Don in the middle of July. Don spent its entire life at sea and peaked as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph.

There is some data suggesting that Franklin may travel northeastward to only a certain point. The system may turn toward the northwest and could wander within a few hundred miles of Bermuda this weekend. If so, clouds and squalls from the system could begin to affect the islands of Bermuda at that time.

Should the system travel this far to the northwest, it could later be drawn northward into Atlantic Canada toward the end of the month.

There are other systems that AccuWeather meteorologists are closely watching for tropical development.

A tropical disturbance, or tropical wave, that AccuWeather meteorologists had their eye on since early in August ramped up to a tropical depression and then became Tropical Storm Harold prior to making landfall in Texas on Tuesday. Harold will push westward through the Rio Grande Valley through midweek with areas of heavy rain and localized flash flooding.

Farther to the east over the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Emily formed over the weekend, roughly halfway between Africa and the eastern islands of the Caribbean. By late Monday evening, Emily had lost organization and wind energy and had dissipated. There is a chance that Emily could regenerate late this week over the central Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Gert formed on Sunday night, a few hundred miles to the east of the northeastern islands of the Caribbean. Like Emily, Gert has met its demise after a brief lifespan.

For a time on Sunday night and early Monday, three named systems were spinning in the Atlantic at the same time. After a brief pause, Franklin, Gert and Harold were active on Tuesday morning.

Farther to the east, there are additional tropical waves that AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring for development this week.

One such system was near the Cabo Verde Islands, located just off the coast of Africa.

Yet another tropical wave was crossing Africa and may evolve into a tropical system later this week as it moves over the warm waters of the Atlantic.

During the middle to the latter part of next week, AccuWeather's tropical weather team will be watching the zone from the western Caribbean to the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico for tropical development.

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