Frenette | College Football Limbo: Precarious future awaits FSU, Miami outside SEC/Big Ten

With each passing day, college football inches closer toward its most alarmingly uncertain future in history because big-brand programs are engrossed by the twin motivations of greed and self-preservation.

Any concept of team or league membership loyalty is as extinct as the T formation. That is, unless you need a tag-team escort to jump ship and accompany you on the path to gridiron survival.

Conference realignment — whether it’s the SEC poaching Texas and Oklahoma last year from the Big 12, or the recent Big Ten counterpunch of pilfering USC and UCLA from the Pac-12 — is becoming a runaway train with no clarity on what college football looks like when the big dominos stop falling.

One popular consensus is the SEC and Big Ten will eventually form 20-team conglomerates who conduct their own national championship. As for what might remain of teams from other Power 5 leagues, that is also an ongoing mystery. Maybe they fight for the leftover TV crumbs, perhaps playing as some sort of junior varsity/FCS configuration in a separate playoff system.

For now, the imaginations of every athletic director in the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 are running wild with endless possibilities, many of them gloomy.

Will the Big 12 try to sell Pac-12 members Colorado, Utah or both Arizona schools on joining? Does the Big Ten wait on Notre Dame to finally abandon its independence before chasing after Oregon, Washington, North Carolina or Virginia? What can the ACC do to remain viable, assuming that Florida State, Miami and Clemson don’t abandon ship?

Nobody has any idea where this jigsaw puzzle is headed, leaving many to wonder if they’ll emerge in a better place financially than the precarious spot all schools outside the SEC and Big Ten are now feeling.

“What Southern Cal and UCLA did was kind of mind-boggling, I don’t think anybody saw that coming,” said Gator Bowl president/CEO Greg McGarity, who served as Georgia’s athletic director from 2010-20. “A lot of things are probably simmering beneath the surface. I’m sure TV executives are hard at work because they want the best product on their networks. You have a lot of cooks in the kitchen.

“The part that’s hard to wrap your head around is you don’t know what’s happening in a world of confidentiality. I think the ACC is probably circling the wagons. They don’t want anybody going anywhere. It’s kind of chaos right now.”

ACC schools in tough spot

Maybe if FSU had a crystal ball back in 1992 and could see where college football is now headed – more so with realignment, but also the NIL (name, image and likeness) benefits for athletes – it would have joined the SEC instead of jumping from being independent to the ACC.

Then again, the Seminoles might not have three national championship crystal balls in their football trophy case if they had to navigate an SEC schedule, so that monumental decision had some desirable perks.

But now, FSU and other high-profile ACC programs like Miami, Clemson and North Carolina find themselves in football limbo. They’re pretty much stuck with being in a league where only Clemson has been a national player in recent years, which diminishes the value of the product.

Plus, the ACC’s binding grant of rights being part of its TV package through 2036 would translate into a monster buyout price – reported to be $120 million or more – for any school wishing to join another league.

“It’d be very difficult, awfully expensive and very complicated for the ACC schools to leave,” said McGarity. “That’s why Texas and Oklahoma aren’t going to the SEC until 2025 because the financial burden [from grant of rights] is too big.

“Another problem is I just don’t think the SEC is going to go out and cherry-pick because I don’t think they need to. They have a tremendous contract with Disney [and ESPN] after the ‘24 season.

“It boils down to one thing: where is the financial value? That’s what’s driving all this realignment. If I’m an AD in the SEC, what value do those [ACC] schools bring? You’re already in the state of South Carolina and Florida television markets.”

Given the SEC history, McGarity’s point has merit. When the nation’s preeminent football league brought Texas A&M and Missouri aboard in 2012, it created a footprint in two previously untapped major markets. Adding Texas and Oklahoma created a win-win for both TV impact and the SEC brand.

The same was true when the Big Ten, after receiving overtures from both USC and UCLA, tapped into the LA market. Now that league has a membership presence in the country’s top four TV markets – along with New York, Chicago and Philadelphia.

Outside of Notre Dame, there are only a limited number of football heavyweights with a robust combination of brand and TV market to go conference hunting. Like maybe Washington, Stanford and Oregon for the Big Ten, Clemson and FSU for the SEC, and possibly UNC and Miami for both.

While geography is seemingly becoming less of a factor in realignment, it’s still hard to envision any kind of merger between the ACC and Pac-12 schools, one of many potential speculative arrangements.

The overriding dilemma is this: nobody can realistically gauge what might be the next big domino to fall. Notre Dame has no reason to jump to the Big Ten any time soon. The ACC schools are handcuffed financially.

As for the Pac-12 and Big 12, both are dangerously close to being on life support with no obvious solution, since either one poaching from the other is not viewed as a sure ticket for consistent entry into the College Football Playoff.

Trust issues pose roadblock

One former college administrator, who spent decades as a Power 5 athletic director and remains a consultant for multiple schools, has grave concerns about the fallout from the mad scramble for prime seating at the college football table.

He spoke only on the condition of anonymity, due to the sensitive nature of his conversations with current ADs and the importance of preserving confidentiality with clients.

His biggest worry is confidence among administrators working together has dissolved so much, it could undermine the college football landscape moving forward. He fears the clandestine nature of the USC-UCLA jump to the Big Ten, preceded by Texas and Oklahoma flocking to the SEC, will make it harder for schools to find an ideal landing spot somewhere else.

“With all the things taking place, people just don’t know which way to turn,” the former AD said. “One thing very disappointing to me is there’s no trust any more. By the phone calls I take, people are really down right now and concerned. I feel more like a psychiatrist now than a former AD because people are so upset with what’s going on.

“Anti-trust now has a double meaning. There’s the legal part, and then there’s [people saying], ‘I just can’t trust people around the table anymore.’ It’s bad enough the NCAA didn’t do anything for five years. Now we’re operating in a world where there are no rules, no penalties and no consequences.

“You can lay 95 percent of this at the feet of the NCAA and the lack of leadership at the top. Using sentences that have the terms compliance, enforcement and consequences, you might as well put a smiling emoji around it. None of that exists. We’ve outlived a bad [NCAA] structure.”

Complicating matters in this game of Realignment Roulette is the movement coincides with two major issues: NIL (name, image, likeness) raising concerns about some schools offering seven-figure incentives to entice recruits to their schools, plus the unresolved issue of whether the CFP will expand from four to 12 teams once the current deal expires after the 2025 season.

“If you’re part of the CFP decision-making body, there’s so much uncertainty now because realignment is so murky,” McGarity said. “At some point, it has to stabilize in order for the CFP to move forward.”

Pac-12 “really sucking air”

With the SEC and Big Ten flexing its considerable muscle, one thing that seems inevitable is the gap widening between them and other Power 5 leagues. The next SEC media rights phase with ESPN, which starts in 2024, is expected to be worth $300 million per season through 2034. That deal is nearly six times the $55 million number the conference now has with CBS.

It remains to be seen whether college football will come out the other side with a better product, which may be the case for the SEC/Big Ten, and if those outside the privileged lot have any chance at financial prosperity.

One thing is certain: the college football landscape is seeing more change than at any time in history, and not necessarily for the better.

“We’re living in a broken house right now and it’s going to take exceptional leadership to lead us out of this,” the former AD said. “Think of the money that has been earmarked for coaching salaries and staffs. We’re well down the path of a mini-NBA and mini-NFL. A lot of things people said would never see happen, they’re now happening.”

It’s too late to slow down the arms race, especially in a college football caste system where only a couple dozen schools have the resources to compete for a national championship.

But which schools among the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 will be best positioned to not be left out in the realignment cold? The perception is properties like FSU, Miami, Clemson, North Carolina, Oregon and Washington have too much going for them to be excluded, but there are no guarantees in this unpredictable climate.

“It’s still very hard to forecast when all this realignment will come to a halt,” said the former AD. “A lot will depend on who goes next. If it’s an ACC school, the lawyers will be lined up to read the wording in that contract.

“If anybody is really sucking air, I think it’s the Pac-12. They’re the ones at the greatest risk of coming apart.”

What we do know is college football is approaching a crossroads. And the way things are proceeding, the Power 5 schools outside the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame have good reason to wonder if their future is brighter than it once was.

gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540 

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: College football realignment could mean shaky future for FSU, Miami