Fresno State can’t halt offensive slide in a loss to last-place San Diego State

Three weeks back, Fresno State had just beaten Boise State to run its record to 8-1. It was ranked No. 25 in the AFCA Coaches Poll, in control of its destiny in the Mountain West Conference race and had an outside chance to play in a New Year’s Six bowl game for the first time in school history.

It just finished 8-4, with a 33-18 loss to San Diego State on Saturday at Snapdragon Stadium, a third loss in a row and a painful mirror image of the two that came before it.

There are a lot of things that play into that equation, but the only certainty with a bowl game yet to play is this team at the moment is just lost.

Injuries hurt, obviously. But the past two weeks the Bulldogs have been beaten up by New Mexico, which was tied with San Diego State in last place in the conference at kickoff, and then the Aztecs, who were all alone in last place in the conference at game time.

“It’s been a disappointing last three weeks, yeah, it has,” coach Jeff Tedford said in a post-game radio interview. “We’re an 8-4 team and we went down the stretch and unfortunately we had a lot of unfortunate things happen to us. But we didn’t play well enough, so we’re 8-4 and now we get an opportunity to play in a bowl game. Hopefully, we can regroup, get some guys back healthy and make a better showing.”

Consider that doubtful.

At the start of the season, and as Fresno State (8-4, 4-4 Mountain West) was winning Power Five road games at Purdue and at Arizona State, the expectation was the Bulldogs’ defense would build on a solid 2022 and provide a young offense time to develop under first-year coordinator Pat McCann.

It never reached that level and in this three-game losing streak has been brutalized by opposing run games and had difficulty getting off the field on third downs.

The Bulldogs allowed 226 yards on the ground to the Aztecs, the most San Diego State has had this season against a bowl subdivision (FBS) opponent. Before that, Fresno State allowed 345 rushing yards to New Mexico and 313 to San Jose State, season-high totals for the Lobos and Spartans.

They also allowed San Diego State to convert 8 of 19 third-down plays and 3 of 3 fourth downs into firsts, and over the past three games opponents have converted 45.2% of their third downs.

But the offense is perhaps more the culprit — while the defense can’t get off the field, and the offense keeps putting it back on, often with very little rest between series.

Running back Malik Sherrod rolled up a school-record 312 all-purpose yards against the Aztecs with a career-high 138 yards rushing, 44 receiving and 130 on kickoff returns.

But an inability to consistently rush the football and control critical points in the game have hurt. In the past two games the Aztecs (40:51) and Lobos (40:41) have held huge advantages in time of possession.

The Bulldogs in those two games have gone three-and-out nine times in 21 truly offensive series. That’s 42.9% of their drives. Three plays, and a punt. They have 12 three-and-outs in their three-game losing streak, and in the first nine games of the season they had 15 total.

Fresno State went three full games without a three-and-out in victories over Arizona State, Kent State and Nevada.

Bulldogs’ offense struggling at worst time

But that is not the only glaring statistic in illustrating just how far the offense has fallen off over the final three weeks of the season.

After that victory over Boise State, the Bulldogs were leading the Mountain West in completion percentage, hitting 66.3% of their passes.

In the past three games, they have completed only 56.4% of their passes, including 56.8% in the loss to San Diego State (4-8, 2-6) with quarterback Mikey Keene 21 of 36 for 190 yards with no touchdowns and one interception.

They also were leading the conference in first downs, averaging 22.6 per game. But in the past three they have averaged 16.3, a number that is the fewest in the conference over the final three games of the regular season.

They were third in the conference in scoring, averaging 34.0 points per game. But in their losing streak the Bulldogs have averaged 17.7, which over this last three-game stretch of the season is ahead of just a Nevada team that is 2-10.

They were second in third-down conversion percentage at 50.4%, but over the past three games have fallen off to 33.3% and were 1 of 9 against the Aztecs.

Fresno State was ranked fourth in the conference in total offense, averaging 407.0 yards per game. The past three that average is down to 292.7, with 341 against San Diego State, the most it has had in the three-game losing streak.

Even with Sherrod rolling up 138 rushing yards on 15 plays — he had 100 of those yards on just four, including a 62-yard touchdown on the first series — Fresno State this season is averaging just 3.7 yards per rush.

The Mountain West will go to computers to determine who will play in and host the conference championship game due to a three-way tie at the top between UNLV, San Jose State and Boise State. That is wild, especially if the Spartans get left out after going on the road and beating UNLV to end the regular-season.

But it is no more wild than what has happened to the Bulldogs, who just three weeks ago appeared to be headed back to the conference championship game.

By the numbers

1: Fresno State finished No. 1 in Group of Five attendance, averaging 39,939 for its six home games. South Florida was second at 39,676, but had just 29,279 for its final home game on Saturday against Charlotte.

0: Explosive pass plays of 20 or more yards by the Bulldogs. It is the first time Fresno State quarterbacks did not have at least one in a game.

7: Games in a row the Bulldogs have been outgained by their opponent, with the Aztecs gaining 415 yards to the Bulldogs’ 341. It was only the second time this season San Diego State had generated 400 or more yards.

13: Tackles by Fresno State linebacker Malachi Langley. It is the second game in a row Langley has had 13 tackles, and his fourth career game with 10 or more.

10: Rushing plays of 20 or more yards allowed by the Bulldogs’ defense over the past three games, with two by San Diego State and four by San Jose State and by New Mexico. Fresno State had allowed four in the first nine games of the season.

3: First-time starters on the Bulldogs’ defense in linebackers Tyler Mello and Tuasivi Nomura and defensive lineman Merhauti Xepera.

60: Conversion percentage in the second half for San Diego State on third downs. The Aztecs were 6 of 10, after going just 2 of 9 in the first half.

3: Games in a row Fresno State completed less than 60% of its passes, going 21 of 37 (56.7%) against San Diego State, 56.3% against New Mexico and 56.1% at San Jose State. That has not happened since the Bulldogs’ final four games in a 1-11 season in 2016.