Fresno State vs. Boise State prediction: Is Jake Haener the difference-maker in rematch?

The last time Fresno State and Boise State met in the Mountain West Conference football championship game was in 2018, a 19-16 Bulldogs overtime victory in Boise.

The teams meet again at Albertsons Stadium at 1 p.m. PST Saturday (FOX) in a rematch from earlier this season. The host Broncos won that game 40-20 that sent Fresno State to 1-4 without quarterback Jake Haener and cornerback Evan Williams.

The Bulldogs (8-4, 7-1 in the MW) haven’t lost since.

And this time, Fresno State will have Haener and Williams against the Broncos.

On the other hand, defensive tackle David Perales is questionable to play after sustaining an ankle injury last week against Wyoming. He’s the Bulldogs’ leader with 10.5 sacks and 15.0 tackles for loss.

Fresno State is 2-2 in MW championship games, while Boise State is 3-2.

The Bulldogs and Broncos (9-3, 8-0) met in both 2017 and 2018 at Albertsons Stadium in the MW title game with Boise State defeating Fresno State in the first matchup 17-14 and the Bulldogs winning the OT thriller in the snow the next year. Jeff Tedford was the Bulldogs coach for both.

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Predictions from Boise and beyond

Here is how predictions are unfolding:

Idaho Statesman: Boise State 31, Fresno State 28

USA Today: Boise State 33, Fresno State 26

SportsLine: Boise State 33, Fresno State 25

Sports Illustrated: Boise State 35, Fresno State 28

FanSided: Fresno State 31, Boise State 27

College Football News: Fresno State 30, Boise State 27

The Bee’s analysis/prediction

Much like in 2018, the weather Saturday will be very cold, but that won’t slow either team.

The Bulldogs need to slow the Broncos’ running game. In the October game in Boise, George Holani rushed 17 times for 157 yards and Ashton Jeanty had 19 rushes for 109 yards. If Perales can’t play then the Bulldogs have big shoes to fill — but they stepped up last week after he went down against Wyoming.

Fresno State only trailed 20-17 at the half in October and tied it midway through the third quarter before Boise State pulled away.

Having Haener back will make a differencee for the Bulldogs, especially down the stretch, and The Bee believes Fresno State will come out on top.

Prediction: Fresno State 34, Boise State 30