Frigid Weather Hammering the US Threatens to Upend Iowa Voting

Nancy Cook and Hadriana Lowenkron
·4 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Frigid weather gripping the US has snarled travel, disrupted the National Football League playoffs and now threatens to alter the course of the 2024 presidential election.

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The National Football League’s Kansas City Chiefs won against the Miami Dolphins where the temperature was minus-5F (-21C) at kick-off Saturday night. Those willing to brace the bitter cold were rewarded with glimpses of pop star Taylor Swift, who is dating Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, and who has attended several recent games.

The brutal cold forced the NFL to delay the Buffalo Bills’ match-up against the Pittsburgh Steelers from Sunday to Monday after forecasts for high winds and as much as two feet of snow in Western New York. As of Saturday evening, some 1,346 flights within, into or out of the US had been canceled, according to FlightAware.

But it’s in Iowa where the stakes are the highest in the face of the winter storm. The state kicks off the start of the 2024 Republican presidential nominating cycle with its caucuses on Monday evening. The National Weather Service issued an advisory for “life threatening wind chills” forecast to persist through noon central time Tuesday.

That’s made voter turnout even more crucial.

Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has banked on riding high turnout from his “Make America Great Again” or MAGA, voter base to a huge victory that would demoralize Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, allowing him to more forcefully pivot to a general election rematch against President Joe Biden.

Turnout Worries

For every Republican campaign, the worry is the terrible weather will keep caucus-goers at home on Monday night and suppress turn-out.

Trump, who arrived in Iowa Saturday evening after weather-related delays, expressed concern about the weather in a tele-rally with supporters.

“I just landed in the airplane and it’s nasty out there. From the airplane to the car was about 20 feet and I’m saying ‘wow, that’s low you have a hard time reaching it.’ But it’s getting better. I’m worried about that, but at the same time I’m watching even the newscasters today, they’re saying the Trump voter has so much more spirit, dedication,” Trump said.

For DeSantis and Haley, battling for at least the No. 2 slot in the caucus, the weather could determine the longevity of their presidential bids. A Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Saturday evening showed Trump with 48% of likely voter support, but Haley supplanted DeSantis as runner-up at 20%. DeSantis was at 16%.

The poll included a vital measure amid the bad weather. Forty-nine percent of Trump supporters said they were extremely enthusiastic to caucus for him, with 23% of DeSantis voters saying the same, according to the poll. By contrast, only 9% expressed extreme enthusiasm for Haley.

Change of Plans

DeSantis and Haley both held in-person events Saturday after having to postpone appearances on Friday, or move them online.

DeSantis brought a team of roughly 200 Florida supporters and surrogates to Iowa to help with volunteering, knocking on doors and turning out caucus-goers.

“They can throw a blizzard at us and we are gonna fight. They can throw wind chill at us and we are gonna fight. They can throw media narratives at us and we are gonna fight,” DeSantis said at an afternoon rally he held Saturday.

Haley posted a video to X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, in front of a snow pile, with the wind whirling, saying “alright its caucus time. I know it’s cold, but we need you out there. Wear some layers, bring your ID and bring your friends. We can do this.”

Bryan Moon, an undecided Iowa voter, at a DeSantis event Saturday was undeterred by the weather forecasts.

“I will be voting no matter what, not sure for who, but I will be there,” Moon said.

But Iowa Republican donor Bruce Rastetter’s Saturday trek into Des Moines for a roundtable with Bloomberg News offered a glimpse of the challenges caucus-goers — and the candidates — face alike for Monday.

The native Iowan got stuck in a snow drift.

“It’s about as bad as I’ve seen it out there in my lifetime,” he said.

--With assistance from Julie Fine.

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