Gallego could face Sinema, Lake in historic Ariz. Senate race. What role will Trump play?

Arizona’s looming U.S. Senate race is shaping up to be among the most closely watched in the country despite the fact that three of the likely candidates have yet to announce whether they are even running.

Kyrsten Sinema, who bailed on the Democratic Party in December to become an independent, would appear to have all the usual advantages of an incumbent, though her ability to pull even a small number of voters from her former party seems to be a significant challenge.

The fact that she’s not using that incumbent advantage to have announced a re-election campaign yet is mystifying to experts.

Republicans Kari Lake and Blake Masters are expected to jump in the race, but have yet to do so, leaving the only official candidates at this point as Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.

Adding to the intrigue are reports that former President Donald Trump has weighed in on the potential race in an attempt to play kingmaker, but his preferred candidates lost the Arizona Senate race, governorship, Secretary of State and Attorney General to Democrats in 2022.

“It’s fair to say the political class is salivating at the idea of a three-way race with Kyrsten Sinema the incumbent running as an independent, and a MAGA candidate on the right and a bona fide liberal on the left, and all that means for proving who Arizona is when it comes to self-governance,” said Stan Barnes, president of Copper State Consulting Group and a Republican consultant.

There appears to be some chance former President Donald Trump taps Lake to be his 2024 running mate, but it appears more likely the general election will pit Gallego, Sinema and Lake against each other.

“It’s going to be three people with built-in constituencies, plenty of money and a lot of confidence to pull it off,” Barnes said. “It’s going to be extremely fun to watch if you are an amateur political scientist.”

It will be Kyrsten Sinema's hot race, if she runs

Barnes anticipates Sinema will run, despite her delay in announcing as much.

Other Arizona experts are less sure Sinema will run, even if they respect the allure of Sinema as a candidate.

“She will have to run a super-aggressive campaign,” said Chuck Coughlin, president of HighGround Inc., a Republican-leaning consulting firm. “Because the campaign is inevitably going to be about her if she chooses to run.”

Another question is whether Sinema can win considering the animosity she faces from her former party, which includes outsized reaction in 2021 to a social-media post of her wearing a ring emblazoned with an expletive that was taken as a missive to her Democratic critics. Even if that ring wasn’t directed at Democrats, it was perceived that way, and Sinema did not bother to clarify it.

Then there’s her fundraising so far.

“I was surprised that the last report was not more robust,” Coughlin said of her financial take.

Barnes gives Sinema more of a fighting chance.

“Her personal dynamism, incumbency, her ability to raise money, her record and the fact that she probably is the best politician now in office in Arizona with a Bill Clinton-like ability to make you feel important when you talk to her one on one. … If anyone could pull this off, she could,” Barnes said.

He added that should she win as an independent, she’d immediately wield more power than any other U.S. senator, and that would seem almost impossible to pass up.

“She’s following the path that the average guy allegedly wants. The theoretical average guy, which is this above-party, pragmatic position in state politics,” Barnes said. “That’s where she’s going. And I believe she has the temerity and personality energy necessary to test that theory.”

Kari Lake likely to jump in, political observers say

Both Coughlin and Barnes see it as a near certainty Lake eventually gets in the race though, likely by Thanksgiving, Coughlin predicts.

Coughlin has questions about whether Lake, loser of the 2022 governor’s race, can win statewide.

“I think she already hit her high-water mark in that election. I don’t think she’s expanded her voter universe,” Coughlin said.

Masters has a path, but it's difficult, experts say

Lake's 2022 statewide defeat leaves a possible lane for Masters, who also lost a statewide race in 2022 running for Senate against Democrat Mark Kelly.

Masters would be expected to run as a MAGA candidate after having Trump’s endorsement for his last effort, but to try this time around to position himself as more electable than Lake, should the two one-time allies face off in a primary.

“It’s difficult for Masters to run as MAGA, but he’s electable,” Coughlin said. “It’s a very difficult path for him to run. But not impossible.”

Barnes is with Coughlin on that prediction for Masters.

“I think he might (run) because he’s still got ambitions and he’s still young,” Barnes said. “But he and Kari are so much chasing the same constituency. And Kari is higher profile, working harder, probably has a head start on name identification and fundraising.”

Trump, who lost the state of Arizona in his 2020 loss, apparently chimed in on the potential primary match-up between Lake and Masters, according to the New York Times, which recently reported Trump called Masters to tell him he couldn’t beat Lake.

Neither Masters nor Lake responded to requests for comment on the New York Times story.

Lake has been discussed as a possible vice presidential running mate to Trump, but it's unclear why he would bother to make such a call to Masters if he were considering Lake as a running mate.

Experts would be surprised by primary victory for Lamb

Coughlin and Barnes agree on one other point regarding the race: Neither believes Lamb has a shot.

“It’s common consensus around the chattering class of the Capitol that Mark Lamb is a great candidate and great sheriff, but he does not have a built-in name identification or resources that Kari Lake has or for that matter that Blake Masters has,” Barnes said. “It is hard to imagine Sheriff Lamb becoming Senator Lamb when others in the Republican primary are so well-known and so well-funded.”

Campaign fundraising: Lamb makes lackluster debut in initial financial report.

Coughlin concurred.

“Where does he get his money? I don’t understand how to fund a statewide Senate campaign from the base from which he comes,” Coughlin said. “He’s not perceived by the donor community or Republican base as a credible candidate.

Reach reporter Ryan Randazzo at ryan.randazzo@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-4331. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter: @UtilityReporter.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Sinema, Lake and Gallego would be a historic Senate race