Gambling: Picking Denver to extend series; Bucks-Nets to score more

Jun. 12—We have two games Sunday in the NBA, with the Milwaukee Bucks looking to even up their series with the Brooklyn Nets, and the Denver Nuggets looking to extend their season in front of their home crowd against the Phoenix Suns.

Game 3 between the Bucks and Nets was wild. It had late-game drama, clutch baskets and ugly play. A lot of it came from Joe Harris, who couldn't buy a bucket, scoring just three points. He shot an awful 1 for 10 from beyond the arc and 1 for 7 from 3-point land, which really feels like an outlier. His points prop is opening up at 12.5, and I'm taking the over.

This is still a matchup with a Bucks team that is allowing 38.9% of their points from long distance, the third-worst rate in the NBA. With Brooklyn still missing James Harden, Harris should get a ton of shots up.

Staying in this game, I like the over here, despite the awful shooting display in Game 3. Both teams shot below 38% from the field, but it was a ton of open shots that were missed, which doesn't seem sustainable. Brooklyn, despite missing Harden, still has two of the best scorers in the league. Milwaukee is also playing at a blistering pace, which should lead to better scoring days. The shots that weren't falling last game likely do in Game 4, and I expect a final score that doesn't resemble the early 2000's NBA.

Finally, Denver looks to avoid the sweep against the Suns on Sunday night. Nikola Jokic has been doing whatever he can to keep his team in it, but they will need more from someone like Michael Porter Jr. It is tough to sweep teams in the playoffs, and at home I think Denver pulls this one out. Phoenix is favored by three on the road, and while it has dominated this series, if I think Denver wins, it obviously will cover the spread here.