Game-by-game Chiefs picks: Why 2023 schedule could give Patrick Mahomes, KC hot start

The real games have arrived.

A year ago, the Chiefs had spent months describing the wait for a season opener, after a summer that moved at a painstakingly slow pace.

A bit different now. This time, you’ll hear the Chiefs talk about an offseason that flew by because, well, there really wasn’t much of an offseason. The breaks of a celebration, right?

But we’re inside of a week of the NFL Opening Night — the Chiefs are hosting the Lions on Thursday — so it’s time for the annual tradition of some predictions.

Every last game.

I wrote about this back when the schedule was released, but the Chiefs actually have a more difficult slate than the old-fashioned strength of schedule statistics would have you believe. The simple explanation is the betting markets believe their opponents are better in 2023 than their records showed in 2022.

But, hey, one game at a time...

WEEK 1: VS. LIONS (THURSDAY NIGHT)

Speaking of the betting market, there’s no team that has made a bigger jump from the onset of last season to the onset of this season than the Lions, who open as the favorites to win the NFC North. This is a bigger test out of the gate than it seems. The Chiefs are adamant about moving on from last year, but that becomes just a tad more difficult when they’ll raise a Super Bowl banner before the game ... to honor last year. Of note, though: The Lions were one of football’s worst teams last season against the pass. It could be a big opening night for Patrick Mahomes.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Lions 27

WEEK 2: AT JACKSONVILLE

The opening couple of weeks will present a challenge — been awhile since we could say that about back-to-back games against the Lions and Jaguars — but that challenge might not reach the Chiefs offense. While the Jaguars made significant strides in 2022, the pass defense was in shambles for large portions of the season. In a rare appearance in the early-afternoon window, Mahomes could begin his 2023 season similar to the way he finished 2022.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 27

WEEK 3: VS. BEARS

Here’s perhaps the best snapshot of the Chiefs’ 17-game slate: While they hold a massive edge above all other teams in the betting markets, for now they are not once favored by double digits. But this comes close. The Chiefs’ biggest spread of the season, as it stands today, is a 9.5-point line against the Bears. It’s another enticing matchup for Mahomes. Chicago had the league’s second-worst defense on a per-play basis last season and the very worst against the pass. While the Bears have improved, it’s hard to envision them marching into Arrowhead and making it anything more than mildly interesting.

Prediction: Chiefs 37, Bears 20

WEEK 4: AT N.Y. JETS (SUNDAY NIGHT)

You know the theme of the first three games that I mentioned — how they are opponents that struggled against the pass last season? Yeah, that stops here. The Jets are loaded in the secondary with young talent. While it’s hard to ever bet the Chiefs to lose — they’re literally favored in all 17 contests — I think the Jets could have some desperation by Week 4. They open with the Bills, Cowboys and Patriots, and if they lose a couple of those, they’ll need this one more than a potentially undefeated Chiefs team would. Either way, it feels like a game decided by a field goal or less.

Prediction: Jets 27, Chiefs 26

WEEK 5: AT MINNESOTA

The Vikings’ record was great last year. But the advanced metrics show they were the beneficiaries of some luck. Or a lot of luck. They won 11 consecutive one-score games. They actually finished the season with a negative point differential — the first NFL team in history to couple that stat with 13 wins. It’s hard to envision the ball bouncing their way so frequently in 2022. Although Minnesota is a tough place to play, this is a more lopsided matchup than last year’s record would have you believe.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Vikings 20

WEEK 6: VS. BRONCOS (THURSDAY NIGHT)

People forget the Broncos had one of the better defenses in the league a year ago — because their offense wouldn’t allow any of us to take note. If their offense could be even average, they could be in the playoff mix. But I have my doubts. Russell Wilson was the second-worst quarterback in football at turning pressures into sacks, per PFF, and turning 35 years old during the season isn’t exactly a reason to believe that will change. Besides, the Chiefs didn’t play particularly well against Denver either matchup a year ago but still won them both. It’s been 15 straight. The Broncos are going to have to prove they can do it before I pick them to do it.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 16

WEEK 7: VS. CHARGERS

The annual question: Is this the Chargers year? (The usual answer: No.) Justin Herbert remains excellent, but it would be nice if the Chargers let him show it a little bit — not just with horizontal throws. The roster is largely unchanged, leaving the biggest adjustment in coaching. And it is indeed a big adjustment. The Chargers brought in Kellen Moore to call the plays this season. If nothing else, at least it’s not more of the same. I expect the Chargers to get one game from the Chiefs this season, though it’s not this one.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Chargers 27

WEEK 8: AT DENVER

It’s unusual to be done with the Broncos before Halloween — and to see them twice in the span of 18 days. But everything above applies. The Chiefs have won 15 straight in this matchup. No reason to be the contrarian.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Broncos 20

WEEK 9: VS. DOLPHINS (IN GERMANY)

The trip to Germany should be a cool experience, but I certainly wish it wasn’t this opponent. I can’t be the only one who was looking forward to Tyreek Hill’s return to Arrowhead Stadium. Still, the Dolphins have plenty of offensive firepower, health pending, to make this as entertaining of a game as the NFL has sent to Europe.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Dolphins 28

WEEK 11: VS. EAGLES (MONDAY NIGHT)

If we’re picking all of these games in a vacuum, you could predict the Chiefs to win each of them. But they’re not going 17-0, and this is as good of a spot as any for a slip. Sure, Andy Reid is dominant after a bye, but this isn’t a normal bye week after the trip overseas. Since 2018, teams playing in Europe are just 5-15 in their first game back stateside, even though most of them returned after a bye week. The Eagles lost both coordinators — that’s not nothing — but they’re stacked with talent on both sides of the ball. Last season was no fluke.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Chiefs 27

WEEK 12: AT LAS VEGAS

It’s always worth watching when Patrick Mahomes and Maxx Crosby share a field, but even more so after we got a glimpse of their rivalry through Netflix. But that might be about all the intrigue the Raiders are able to provide. Jimmy Garoppolo is not the step-down from Derek Carr he’s made out to be — at least not last year’s version of Carr — but the rest of the Raiders roster needs help. It’s not just the quarterback holding them back.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Raiders 17

WEEK 13: AT GREEN BAY (SUNDAY NIGHT)

Andy Reid is headed back where his NFL career started. The Chiefs are actually one of the few teams to already see Jordan Love. In fact, Love’s only career start came at Arrowhead Stadium — with his family occupying some seats in the nosebleeds, you might recall. I actually think the Packers are a bit better than the narratives would have you believe, and I expect they’ll be in the thick of the race in a bad division by the time the Chiefs come to town.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Packers 17

WEEK 14: VS. BILLS

You’d rather play the Bills early than late. We know what the offense can do. But edge rusher Von Miller will begin the season on the PUP list, missing at least the first four games, while he works his way back from knee surgery. He was the difference-maker in the Bills’ win at Arrowhead Stadium last season. A healthy Bills team — one probably in a tighter fight for its division — could trip up the Chiefs for a third straight season during the most challenging part of the Chiefs’ schedule.

Prediction: Bills 30, Chiefs 24

WEEK 15: AT NEW ENGLAND (MONDAY NIGHT)

Of all the games we’ve cycled through on the schedule, I’m still a bit surprised this one is getting the prime-time treatment. The Patriots are always tough defensively, though Mahomes has managed just fine. He has a 100.9 career passer rating against Bill Belichick and has thrown for 290.3 yards per game.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Patriots 16

WEEK 16: VS. RAIDERS (MONDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY)

The Raiders will be out of it by Christmas. The Chiefs will have plenty left to play for.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Raiders 21

WEEK 17: VS. BENGALS

Wouldn’t it be great if the No. 1 seed in the AFC were still in play on New Year’s Eve? You know, because there’s not enough else at stake when these two teams meet. There are rivalries the fans generate, and then there are rivalries the players create. This is the latter. As Mahomes said last year ahead of the AFC Championship Game, “I think we match up better against the Bills, but I want to play the Bengals. I just want to play them because we haven’t beaten them, and I’m tired of them talking.” One thing has since changed. Will the other? For all of us who enjoy the antics surrounding the game, let’s hope not.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Bengals 23

WEEK 18: AT L.A. CHARGERS

For all of the attention we’ll give matchups with the Bengals, Bills and Eagles, among others, it’s the Chargers games that have been the surest bets to provide late-game drama. Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert have faced off five times. Two went to overtime. The other three featured lead changes in the final quarter.

Prediction: Chargers 31, Chiefs 24