Garth Brooks is a great performer, but he's out-of-tune on Titans stadium view | Opinion

While Garth Brooks is a first-rate entertainer, he hits some bum notes in his letter of support for the proposed Titan’s stadium. Realistic magnitudes of the economic impact of mega-events, even Brooks’ famed concerts, come nowhere close to justifying the cost imposed on the residents of a city already straddled with unsustainable finances.

Garth Brooks can sell out stadiums. But stadium tours are tours precisely because they bring the show to where people live. That means the crowds of fans seeking to hear the thunder roll are overwhelmingly local. Since people have fixed entertainment budgets, it means that if residents throw down $300 for tickets, drinks, and parking for a concert, they have $300 less to spend at other local entertainment options. The only way you don’t get this offsetting effect is if you host events that attract new tourists.

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But this is precisely where stadium proponents, including Brooks, get off-key. Many out-of-town guests attending concerts in Nashville were already planning a trip to take advantage of all our city offers, whether for a weekend getaway or a bachelorette party. Even if they adjust their travel dates to accommodate a concert, this means that, like locals, more time and money spent at a concert means less time and money spent on Broadway or other tourist attractions across Nashville. No new spending occurs; thus, increased tax receipts are offset by decreased tax collections elsewhere.

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Will visitors care if the stadium is new or renovated?

An act as great as Garth Brooks will undoubtedly attract new tourists to Nashville. But the relevant question is how many new tourists will travel to a Garth Brooks concert solely because it is held at a new stadium compared to a more affordable, upgraded Nissan Stadium? Any realistic estimate is exceedingly tiny.

And more importantly, this slight increase is likely unsustainable. A new stadium might make the difference for a handful of tourists coming to see large acts, but the novelty will wear off quickly. This is especially true as other cities contribute to the stadium arms race and build something bigger and better even before the new-stadium smell wears off in Nashville.

An even bigger problem is that few entertainers can fill a stadium like Garth Brooks. This speaks to his amazing talent. There are not enough major acts of his ability to keep a sustainable rotation of new tourists flocking to Nashville. Just as importantly, these major acts frequently tour over the summer because many venues across the country are outdoors.

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In fact, a lot of concertgoers prefer the unique vibe of outdoor concerts. But this is why Victor Matheson, a sports economist at the College of the Holy Cross, notes that there is no discernable difference in the number of events held between outdoor and indoor stadiums across the country.

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Can a new stadium thrive with one-time mega events?

But let’s not beat up on Garth Brooks too much, who, after all, is not an elected official with fiduciary responsibility. Elected officials advocating for the stadium, however, are making the same mistakes regarding the handful of home Titans games. Realistically, there are just not that many fans willing to travel to Nashville for an NFL game solely because of the new indoor stadium that would be unwilling to travel for an upgraded Nissan stadium.

It seems the hope of stadium advocates is banked on long-shot attempts to land mega events such as the Super Bowl, WrestleMania, and the Final Four, which certainly attract tourists. The problem is that these events are realistically only one-time events over the life of a stadium. And the magnitude of their economic impact is very small in comparison to the significant public investment that would be imposed on Nashvillians. A tax bill of over $800 million spent gambling on securing a handful of one-time mega-events, the very biggest of which provides only $30 million of economic impact, is the type of deal that surely involves friends in low places.

With the utmost respect and affection to Garth Brooks, the case for this stadium deal is built on many unrealistic prayers, and the evidence strongly suggests they will be unanswered.

Daniel J. Smith is the director of the Political Economy Research Institute at Middle Tennessee State University and professor of economics at the Jones College of Business. Twitter: @smithdanj1  

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Garth Brooks is great, but he's out-of-tune on Titans stadium view