Gas prices climb closer to $6 a gallon in Fresno and California. When will it end?

The average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in the Fresno area was $5.50 on Wednesday afternoon – the highest cost per gallon in nearly a year, and almost 40 cents higher than a month ago.

And one leading analyst said California residents – who according to online real-time price-tracking site GasBuddy.com already face a statewide average price of $5.92 at the pump – can brace for even higher prices in the days to come.

The increases across the state are being driven by ongoing refinery maintenance, in part due to heavy rains from Tropical Storm Hilary that soaked Southern California several weeks ago. California also has yet to switch back to a cheaper-to-refine winter blend of gasoline – something that has already happened in some other states, said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy.

Refineries in Torrance, El Segundo and Los Angeles, which serve California’s southern market, experienced issues due to the storm and also had scheduled maintenance planned, De Haan said.

While fuel costs in Fresno have gone up steadily for months, the pain is particularly acute in Los Angeles and other parts of Southern California, DeHaan said in an online webcast Tuesday night. As of Wednesday, the average price for regular unleaded had reached $6.17 per gallon, creeping closer to a record of almost $6.50 per gallon last October.

“L.A. is already facing prices that have just jumped through the roof in the last week,” DeHaan said Tuesday. “Unfortunately prices are going to keep marching higher across these areas.”

How much higher? “I would expect that average prices could jump another 15 to 45 cents a gallon” in Southern California, DeHaan said, and perhaps about 15 to 30 cents a gallon in other parts of California and the West Coast.

The national average gas price reported Wednesday by the American Automobile Association was $3.83 per gallon, down about four cents from a week ago, but up from $3.81 a month ago.

The impact of gasoline prices can be shortened if “the governor steps in to issue a waiver,” De Haan said. Otherwise, gasoline prices could jump 15 to 35 cents per gallon over the next few weeks.

Finding cheap gasoline in the Fresno area

GasBuddy’s real-time price tracking map, based on data feeds and customers who use the app to report actual at-the-pump prices at stations throughout the country, shows that as prices in the Fresno area approach $6 per gallon, there were a handful of stations throughout Fresno County where sharp-eyed drivers could still find regular unleaded for a cash price of under $5 per gallon.

Those included $4.84 per gallon at a Chevron Extra Mile station on Sierra Street in Kingsburg; $4.95 at a Fastrip store on Tahoe Avenue in Caruthers; and $4.97 at the Walmart Supercenter on Whitesbridge Avenue in Kerman.

But GasBuddy users also reported at least two Fresno stations at which posted prices were already over $6 per gallon.

To the north, in Madera, a price of $4.95 per gallon was listed for an Arco station on North Golden State Boulevard, and $4.99 per gallon was reported at the EZ Trip Travel Center at Avenue 12 and Highway 99.

To the south, in the Kings County community of Lemoore, $4.99 gasoline was reported at the Yokuts Gas station near the Tachi Palace casino and resort on Jersey Avenue, at a Sinclair station on West D Street and at the Fastrip station on North Lemoore Avenue.

The 4B Gas station on West Inyo Avenue in Tulare was listed with a price of $4.97 per gallon.

What’s going on with gasoline prices in California?

“Supply cuts by OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and a cut from Russia have pushed prices up and are likely to stay high until end of 2023,” wrote Gokce Soydemir, Foster Farms endowed professor of business economic at California State University, Stanislaus, in an email to The Sacramento Bee.

He also added that “a series of refinery outages also had an effect” on the price increase.

DeHaan said that refineries in Torrance, El Segundo and Los Angeles experienced problems from Tropical Storm Hilary and the rain that it dumped in the south – more than a foot of rainfall in some parts of Southern California. Refineries also had scheduled maintenance already planned, he added.

“Which is pushing the price up, which is in turn then drawing attention from refineries in Northern California, which are sending gasoline to the south. And that’s why prices now are likely to start going up in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest.”

But DeHaan said that while some analysts focus on prices for crude oil, “this is not an oil price problem.”

“Oil prices do affect the situation, but the primary reason for the pricing impacts is simply due to a lack of breathing room” with refinery capacity in California.

What will help lower gasoline costs?

“Prices fall in the fall,” DeHaan said in his podcast. “The reason we cite is lower demand and the changeover back to winter gasoline, which is easier to produce.”

Under regulations from the California Air Resources Board, the conversion by gasoline stations to selling the cheaper winter-blend gasoline in much of inland California, including Fresno County and the rest of the central San Joaquin Valley, happens on Oct. 31. In other parts of the state, the changeover happens on Sept. 30.

“California is really the only area that has not made the transition back to cheaper winter gasoline,” DeHaan said.

Last year, amid rising fuel prices, California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued a waiver that allowed for the winter blend to be sold ahead of schedule. DeHaan said Newsom’s office “would be well advised to issue waivers to offer gas price relief.”

While California’s layers of regulations, fuel taxes and others aggravate price increases, the biggest factor is refinery capacity, DeHaan said – something that may not abate for a few weeks as some refineries have maintenance scheduled into October.

“Eventually these prices will go down; that’s the good news,” DeHaan said. “I’m expecting a lot of relief. The question is when these refinery issues will be addressed and when maintenance season is done.”

The Sacramento Bee contributed to this report.