As gas prices soar, so does hesitancy toward hurricane evacuations
Motorists across the United States are hard-pressed to find gas prices that dip below $4.30, and a recent survey found that the soaring prices could influence the choice of Florida residents to evacuate or stay ahead of an approaching tropical weather threat.
As of June 7, the average gas price across Florida was about $4.77 -- roughly 15 cents higher than Texas, which is the Gulf State with the second-highest average gas price, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). The national average for a gallon of gasoline was about $4.92 on Tuesday, and AAA predicts gas in Florida could even surpass $5.
"Unfortunately, the pain at the pump is likely to get even worse this week," AAA spokesperson Mark Jenkins said in a statement Monday. "Gasoline made very strong gains in the futures market last week. When that happens, we normally see retail prices rise. It can take days or a week for pump prices to reflect the change, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see retailers raise their prices another 20 cents by Monday night. At this rate, it sure seems like there's very little resistance to rising prices at the pump, and $5 a gallon is quickly becoming a very real possibility this summer."
The average national cost of a gallon, which stood at $4.86 on Monday, rose by nearly 10 cents overnight.
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A customer pumps gas at an Exxon gas station, Tuesday, May 10, 2022, in Miami. U.S consumers have so far defied higher prices for gas, food and rent and have been spending more in 2022, providing crucial support to the economy. How long that can continue will be one of the key factors affecting the economy and inflation this year. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier) |
The rising pain of gas prices may also construct the options for Florida residents this hurricane season, however.
About 42% of respondents in a recent AAA survey said that high prices and the availability of gas would make them less willing to evacuate their homes if recommended to do so this hurricane season, which AccuWeather forecasters are expecting to be active again.
One in four of the Florida residents involved in the survey said they would ignore hurricane evacuation warnings altogether.
Major hurricanes seemed to be one threat that would convince people to evacuate, with 60% saying they would leave only if they were in the path of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane.
"Prices at the pump are likely to remain high throughout the summer," Jenkins said. "So, if you're worried about evacuation costs, it may be a good idea to start setting aside some money now."
In the past, hurricanes have also contributed to a rise in gas prices after carving through offshore rigs and refineries, many of which are throughout the Gulf of Mexico.
About 65% of the gasoline used along the East Coast and 15% of the crude oil run in refineries in the Midwest was shipped from the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to 2020 data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), meaning that a shortage due to a hurricane can impact more than just the areas in the path of the storm.
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Most offshore platforms are designed to endure strong winds and towering waves from hurricanes, with those built since 1988 designed to withstand "100-year storms," including Category 5 hurricanes, according to the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA).
To address flooding threats, standards set by the Bureau of Safety and Environment Enforcement (BSEE) require platform decks to exceed the average height of hurricane-driven waves, which is generally estimated to reach 80 feet.
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NEW ORLEANS, La. (July 12, 2005)--Thunder Horse, a semi-submersible platform owned by BP, was found listing after the crew returned. The rig was evacuated for Hurricane Dennis. (USCG photo by PA3 Robert M. Reed) |
The new designs proved their durability in 2005, when hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed a total of 113 platforms, of which 108 were built before 1988. These pre-1988 facilities represented only 1.5 percent of total Gulf of Mexico production at the time, according to NOIA. Even if damage to facilities is limited, however, hurricanes can still result in production loss as it takes time for operations to resume after an evacuation.
In 2005, gas prices in cities across the U.S. surged by as much as 40 cents a gallon for a few days, a brief spike that was blamed on disruptions caused by Hurricane Katrina meddling with Gulf of Mexico oil production.
Hurricane Katrina shut down about 95% of oil production in the Gulf -- a region that delivers about a quarter of domestic oil across the U.S., NBC News reported at the time.
In 2017, Hurricane Harvey passed through a corner of the Alaminos Canyon offshore production area as a Category 4 hurricane, resulting in the loss of 6% of crude oil and 7% of natural gas production in the Gulf Coast for the month of August over the course of 13 days, according to the EIA. Nearly a week after landfall, retail prices for gas had risen by about 14 cents, according to the Oil Price Information Service, cited by The Wall Street Journal.
But while Harvey was a major hurricane, a storm that's a Category 3 force or stronger, Category 1 Hurricane Nate in October 2017 caused a larger impact on oil rigs. Nate passed through the Mississippi Canyon offshore production area before making landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi River. The hurricane resulted in 18% and 15% of the total October Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production, respectively, not due to its strength, but due to its path, according to the EIA.
While Nate impacted oil rigs, it was a fast-moving storm and didn't interfere much with the flow of fuel to market, GasBuddy senior petroleum analyst Patrick DeHaan said in a news release. He added that at the time the nation had a large supply of crude oil, so the storm wouldn't cause enough stress to greatly impact oil prices.
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