Gavin Newsom denies White House bid, but he is following the contender’s playbook

Grant Tennille, the Arkansas Democratic Party chairman, never expected to hear from Gavin Newsom. Then one day in March, a call came into his office in downtown Little Rock.

“Out of the blue he contacted me and he said ‘I want to come to Arkansas and help you,’’’ Tennille recalled.

Tennille, a political veteran, has fielded his share of calls from ambitious out-of-state politicians. There was a difference, though. Newsom offered to help raise money and visit with local folks.

“He did exactly what he said he was going to do. He brought his whole family. He really got into being in Arkansas,” Tennille said of his April visit. He spoke at a fundraiser in the northwestern part of the state, then headed to Little Rock.

This is how presidential campaigns are built, brick by brick.

The California governor says he’s not running, not in 2024 or any other year. Yet, quietly but aggressively, Newsom is following the playbook for White House aspirants.

He’s meeting with small, influential groups of Democrats around the country, raising and donating lots of money and speaking out against Republicans.

These efforts are aimed at strengthening the Democratic party, said senior adviser Nathan Click. Newsom has honed this role after easily winning three statewide elections over the last five years, including the 2021 recall that got him national attention.

“Two years ago he looked in the mirror and said, ‘I’m as much a leader in this party as anyone else. Why don’t I use my own agency and the organization that I have to help Democrats where they need it the most?” Click recalled.

And that’s what he’s doing. But, as the 55-year-old governor of the nation’s largest state, actively seeking a national platform, Newsom has also placed himself in the White House conversation.

Newsom’s roadblocks

He has a long, upstream swim ahead.

No California Democrat has ever been elected president. Not Jerry Brown, who ran as a 38-year-old new generation wunderkind in 1976, then again in 1980 and 1992. Not Sen. Alan Cranston, who tried to mobilize the nuclear freeze movement for his 1984 campaign. Not Kamala Harris, whose 2020 campaign was over by the end of 2019.

Their common problem — one that Newsom is already facing — is that for many Americans the California map consists of glamor-filled Hollywood and ultra-liberal San Francisco. Newsom is a former mayor of San Francisco. For decades, Republicans have blasted “liberal Democrats from San Francisco.”

That means Newsom, a former San Francisco mayor, has to convince voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, the South and other places far away culturally and geographically that he understands them.

So far, he has parachuted into some of the nation’s most conservative areas.

In Alabama, he met with several state lawmakers, including House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels.

Daniels wanted to see how sensitive Newsom could be to Alabama’s unique issues. The state is run by Republicans who want strict limits on abortion and are making it difficult for Black voters to win more representation in Congress. Daniels came away impressed with Newsom, finding him a good listener who is willing to talk candidly.

The challenge, Daniels said, will be understanding local concerns. “Addressing the gap between each area’s polling and the national polling is going to be critical for Governor Newsom,” Daniels said.

In Arkansas, Newsom also made quite an impression. Chris Jones, the Democrats’ 2022 candidate for governor, praised what he called a “constructive discussion” during his April visit. Newsom contributed $100,000 to Jones’ campaign last year.

Looking to the future, Jones was more circumspect. “Regarding his potential as a national candidate, I believe Governor Newsom possesses certain qualities that could make him a compelling contender someday,” Jones said.

“He’s not alone in that regard. But his time in Arkansas was focused on helping us now and not national office.”

Click recalled how Newsom said, “‘I want to go to the places and I want to help the Democrats in places Democrats don’t often go or are most on the defensive.”

Kamala Harris

Newsom’s biggest challenge, should he ultimately decide to run, is likely to come from a fellow Californian. Win or lose next year, Vice President Harris—the first Democrat from California to ever win that office — is likely to begin the 2028 campaign as the Democratic presidential frontrunner if she’s interested.

Her political profile is nearly identical to Newsom’s — close in age (58), winner of three statewide elections, and political roots in San Francisco, where she was district attorney.

But Harris would make history as the first woman and Asian American — and second Black person — to occupy the Oval Office. That is likely to give her strong support in communities of color, which make up a decisive bloc of Democratic votes, particularly in Southern states.

Steve Phillips, a California-based author of “How We Win the Civil War: Securing a Multiracial Democracy and Ending White Supremacy for Good,” said Newsom is “unlikely to garner significant support from voters of color in the primary…substantively and stylistically, he’s just not ‘one of us.’’’

Phillips called Newsom “usually a fine ally, but that’s a long list of people.” He compared him to former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, the Democratic presidential candidate whose star rose briefly 20 years ago with his fighting style.

Today, that style is embraced by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who won a strong following when he ran for president in 2016 and 2020. Sanders finished second to Hillary Clinton in California 2016 with 46%, and easily won the state’s 2020 primary over Joe Biden.

“That’s largely a progressive white constituency, and it’s not clear that Gavin is the logical next leader for that sector of the population,” said Phillips, founder of Democracy in Color, a political organization focused on race issues in politics.

Even if he got the Democratic nomination, Newsom would be an attractive target for Republicans, GOP strategists said.

“California has never produced a Democrat president and I don’t think that Gavin will be the first,” said Republican strategist Matt Shupe.

“A campaign against Gavin Newsom is a campaign against San Francisco, and I think in a lot of places, that’s a very easy campaign to win, especially in the state that the city is in now,” Shupe added.

Shupe said Newsom’s campaign consultants are taking a smart approach by building a national fundraising base and positioning the progressive governor as an “heir in waiting.”

“Every hour, day, month or year that he’s no longer a sitting governor, his relevancy deteriorates, so they’re trying to proactively set him up for some sort of continuation of his political career,” he said.

Running but not running

Newsom is carefully doing all the things a prospective presidential candidate does.

Click said none of the governor’s efforts have that ambition in mind. As Newsom won statewide elections, “he’s built in the process one of the best grassroots fundraising networks in the country. He looked across the country and said, “I want to really help Democrats.” Click said Newsom wants to help fight the “Republican 20-30-40 year war against abortion rights, LGBTQ rights and gun safety.”

Newsom is advancing on three key fronts:

▪ He’s raising and donating lots of money. “People underestimate being governor of a large state. It’s certainly a place to raise money,” said John Fortier, senior fellow at Washington’s center-right American Enterprise Institute.

Newsom has put the infrastructure in place. He set up three different campaign committees, just as potential presidential candidates often do. One group can take unlimited funds from individuals, corporations and labor unions, and operate independently of Newsom.

Another committee has contribution limits, and allows Newsom to give money to candidates around the country. A third group allows donors to give bigger amounts, which the Newsom-backed team can distribute largely as it wants.

▪ He’s doing the little things. Ever since largely unknown 1976 presidential candidate Jimmy Carter, then a former governor of Georgia, began quietly visiting homes and small groups in Iowa, then the site of the nation’s first Democratic presidential caucus, candidates have routinely followed his path. Carter topped other candidates in that caucus and suddenly was a serious contender. and eventually the party’s nominee

Newsom in April traveled to Southern states for meetings such as the one in Alabama with Daniels and other Alabama House Democrats. This year he’s visited Idaho, Oregon, Utah and Montana and met with Democrats.

In Idaho, the Los Angeles Times reported he addressed the presidential question. “I guess I should be humbled by that,” he said. “But that’s not why I’m here.”

In Alabama, Daniels said he was “impressed by Governor Newsom’s candor and genuine overtones,” and his “listening-first approach.”

He found Newsom “understands the issues that confront families and local economies, and he values hard work and commitment. This is a great basis for establishing a connection with America, and Alabama is no exception to that.”

▪ He’s establishing himself as a national voice. He’s raised money for Biden at posh Manhattan fundraisers. He’s gone two rounds with conservative commentator Sean Hannity on the popular Fox News show.

Newsom has been outspoken in his criticism of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Last summer, Newsom ran a 30-second ad in Florida, warning, “Republican leaders, they’re banning books, making it harder to vote, restricting speech in classrooms, even criminalizing women and doctors,”

Last month, he and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Sanders were fighting over who has the more appealing state. This fall, Newsom is expected to debate DeSantis with Hannity moderating.

Insiders around the country notice. “I love the fact he’s made it his mission to be a thorn in Ron DeSanctimonious’ side,” said Scott Brennan, a Democratic National Committee member from Iowa. “Being a foil for Ron DeSantis builds your national profile.”

Hanging out in Arkansas

In Little Rock, Newsom visited two famous landmarks, Central High School, site of the 1957 battle to integrate public schools, and the Clinton Presidential Center. He taught a civics class at the high school, and met with students at the Clinton School of Public Service, part of the University of Arkansas, located at the presidential center.

“Those two things are very important and personal to everybody in Arkansas,” Tennille said.

Arkansas’ Tennille came away convinced Newsom could win broad appeal in his state.

“Do I think Arkansas Democrats will get behind somebody like that? Yes. I do,” he said.

But there’s a long and winding road ahead if Newsom wants to go there. Republicans will paint Newsom as a “wacky California liberal who can’t be trusted. There are people here who will buy that.,” Tennille said., so any Newsom effort to gain broad support “is going to take awhile.”

A Harvard-Harris Poll last month asked people their views of different political figures. Newsom was 18th in favorability at 25%, tied with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. One-third of those surveyed saw him unfavorably and the rest never heard of him or had no opinion..

That’s not unusual. “Think of baseball on Opening Day. Everybody’s a contender,” said Dennis Goldford, professor of politics at Drake University in Des Moines. “Right now for 2028 it’s Opening Day.”

Maggie Angst of McClatchy’s Capitol bureau contributed.