Gavin Newsom fact check: Do blue states really have lower crime, better health and higher GDP?

When Gov. Gavin Newsom announced last week that he was launching a new political action committee to stand up against “rising authoritarianism” and regressive policies adopted by Republicans, he lambasted red state leaders for banning books, targeting trans children and stoking racism.

In a video created to rally support for his organization, Campaign for Democracy, photos of former president Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders flashed on the screen.

Newsom also used the video to make a handful of broad statements about red states, asserting that they had higher crime rates, poorer health outcomes and weaker economies than blue states.

We took a look at those claims. For context, we defined blue states as those that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 and red states as those that voted for Trump.

Claim: Blue states have lower murder rates

Rating: Mostly true

Details:

More people are murdered per capita in red states than in blue.

Blue states have less than half the average murder rate, according to the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2020, there were 6 murders per 100,000 residents in blue states. The red state rate was 14 per 100,000, CDC data shows.

The top seven states with the highest murder rates are all red: Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina and Tennessee. Three blue states — Maryland, Illinois and New Mexico — round out the top 10.

Meanwhile, eight of the ten states with the nation’s lowest murder rates are blue.

Still, some red states buck the trend. Idaho and Utah, which both voted for Trump in 2020, maintain two of the 6 lowest murder rates, both below 3 per 100,000. That’s far lower than Mississippi’s 20 per 100,000.

California is on par with the average murder rate for blue states, at 6.1 homicides per 100,000.

Claim: Blue states have better health outcomes

Rating: Mostly true

Details:

People who live in blue states have been found on average to be twice as healthy as those in red states, according to a recent analysis from Forbes Advisor.

Forbes Advisor analyzed state-by-state data from the CDC and the Kaiser Family Foundation across three categories. Those indicators included rates of disease prevalence and mortality, substance abuse, lifestyle habits, and the percentage of adults who are smokers or obese.

Based on those factors, the nation’s 10 unhealthiest states as identified by Forbes Advisors were all red: West Virginia, Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Ohio.

As an example, more people die of cancer per capita in red states than in blue.

Of the 10 healthiest states, nine were blue: Hawaii, Minnesota, California, Massachusetts, Colorado, Washington, Connecticut, New York and New Jersey.

Utah was the red outlier, listed as the second healthiest state in the nation. Utahans have the lowest rates of chronic illness and disease mortality, according to the report.

Claim: Blue states have greater GDP

Rating: Misleading

Details:

The top five states with the nation’s greatest GDPs — California, Florida, Illinois, New York and Texas — are a mix of blue and red. On average, blue states have larger economies by value, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

But in terms of recent economic growth, red states are leading the nation.

California’s economy — poised to become the world’s fourth-largest — has been growing at a slower pace than many comparable red states.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, the latest data available, the state’s economy grew at an inflation-adjusted 2.4% annual rate, slightly below the national rate of 2.6%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Texas’ growth led the nation at 7%. Florida’s economy grew 3.7%. North Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma and West Virginia and Alabama each grew at least 3%.

The numbers don’t necessarily mean people are leaving densely populated, higher-tax states and fleeing to less populated, lower-tax areas. Agriculture, fishing, hunting and forestry all slumped, causing the economy to shrink in red South Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska.

California, though, has lagged many other red states. Its unemployment rate has been consistently higher than the national average. It was 4.3% in February; the national rate was 3.6%. Texas’ was 4%, but many red states came in lower than the national average. Florida’s was 2.6%.

Lowest February jobless rates were recorded in red North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Montana and Utah. Each was 2.4% or less.

California’s slower economic growth was largely attributable to tourism industries that have yet to fully to recover from the Covid pandemic. The number of people employed in the state’s leisure and hospitality sector remained in February slightly below the pre-pandemic levels of three years ago.