Gavin Newsom’s not-so-hidden presidential ambitions
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Gov. Gavin Newsom of California has denied holding aspirations for the White House in 2024 and is adamant about supporting President Joe Biden.
Still, as he fundraises and campaigns for Biden, Newsom has not only become a often-mentioned candidate to possibly replace Biden in 2024 but also to succeed him in 2028.
“Can you name another high-profile Democrat with the name recognition, donor base and political talent to assume control and succeed after Biden is gone?” Derek Hunter, a radio host and columnist, opined in an article for The Hill.
But if Newsom does make a run for the presidency, he may have to defend not just his own record in California, but the state’s obvious problems as well — including increased homelessness, drug use and crime.
Could Joe Biden drop out?
Recent reports suggest the Democratic Party is preparing for a scenario where Biden unexpectedly drops out. Topping the speculative list of candidates is Newsom, who made international headlines during his trip to China and Israel in October, as he tries to boost his foreign policy credentials.
Newsom signed agreements for California to work on combating climate change alongside Shanghai, the home to a Tesla Gigafactory, according to a press release from his office. He also had a surprise visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, leading to some criticism of him.
“The governor doesn’t have a role to play in diplomacy that’s official,” political science Prof. Gar Culbert at the California State University, Los Angeles, told the Deseret News. So, it’s more of a play to boost his national profile, he added.
He has also faced some PR challenges. During his trip to China, Newsom was filmed playing basketball with a group of school kids in Beijing. During the game he collided with one of the children, knocking the child down. Thankfully, neither the child nor Newsom suffered injuries.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker also made the speculative list.
The Democrats who are currently challenging Biden for the Democratic nomination, author and wellness guru Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, don’t have the same political profile as Newsom, who has always looked like he was working to get the top job, even before his time as mayor of San Francisco and governor of California.
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Newsom’s aspirations for White House have always been evident
His desire to run for office was evident as far back as his college days. The congratulatory message Newsom’s family left in the senior yearbook of Santa Clara University from 1989 said: “Gavinsy by George you did it! The next step the Presidency?”
Or, perhaps, California governors are naturally pulled towards the White House. Ronald Reagan, a Republican, served as the governor of the Golden State before entering the White House, while others like former governors Jerry Brown, a Democrat, and Pete Wilson, a Republican, launched unsuccessful bids.
“That’s what politicians do. They’re always moving, in one form or another,” Brown said, talking about his three tries at becoming president between 1976 and 1992 in a 2020 oral history of his career. “Anybody who’s running for governor is thinking about being president. Why not?”
“As long as the economy keeps growing, you’re relatively popular. Stay out of the way. That’s the conservative way,” he said, adding that he, on the other hand, wanted to keep things interesting — Teddy Roosevelt style — and dive into issues more on the national level, like climate change, which Newsom has taken a huge interest in.
“I know (Roosevelt) charged up San Juan Hill, and I think he went hunting in Africa or something,” said Brown. “But you’ve got to have a little romance in running for president.”
Can Newsom play on his youth and charisma?
David Axelrod, the brains behind former President Barack Obama’s campaigns, called the 56-year-old governor “bright” and “charismatic,” in an episode of “The Axe Files” podcast from February.
Newsom has often spoken about being raised by “a single mom who worked 3 jobs and waitressed at night to support” him, his sister and his foster brother, as he said in a social media post when he was running for governor in 2018. “She taught me everything I know about grit, hard work, and determination,” he said of his mother.
Polls say that most voters are concerned about President Biden’s age, a worry that wouldn’t affect the 56-year-old governor.
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Run for presidency could be the obvious next step for Newsom
Newsom is going to term out in 2027, which might explain why he is strengthening his national profile, said Culbert.
It’s hard to miss his frequent appearances on Fox News, whether it’s sitting down with host Sean Hannity or popping in for an interview right after the second GOP primary debate, where he said he baited Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a presidential candidate, into debating him.
He has also rented out billboards in red states to call out conservative policies on guns and abortion, as The Washington Post reported.
All this plays a role in building his name recognition, which Culbert says is a good strategy. “Why else would the governor of California appear on national media the way he is?” he said. “It’s not the activity of somebody who’s looking to retire when they’re done with their cycle.”
But Newsom has earned pushback from conservatives, including DeSantis, who challenge him based on the performance of his state.
“California and Florida just have two very different models, and we’ve seen the results of those models. People have fled California since he’s been governor. That’s never happened before. California used to be the state everyone aspired to go to. A lot of them have moved to Florida, which we never had before when I was growing up,” DeSantis told Fox News in September.
He added, “I think it’s also a window into the country’s future because what they’re doing in California – this is just a few years ahead of what Democrats in Washington typically want to do. California is kind of the leading indicator.”
Is Newsom a moderate candidate?
Newsom has been trying to position himself as more of a middle-lane option by championing more moderate laws in the California State Legislature, a trend that came about after the end of the Trump administration, said Culbert.
“Now that there is no overt need to challenge the sitting administration, there is no reason for him to portray himself as a progressive,” he said. “In fact, he doesn’t want to go over the route so as to scare away any moderate voters.”
He decided the fate of 700 bills that landed on his desk last month at the end of California’s legislative session, vetoing nearly 30% of the bills. According to Cal Matters, he blocked bills for three main reasons: The legislation was unnecessary, went too far on policy, or as too costly for the state. Newsom vetoed bills that would have decriminalized psychedelics, given legislative staffers the right to unionize and required large corporations to disclose emissions, the report listed.
Can Gavin Newsom defeat Trump or DeSantis?
There isn’t recent polling available on how Newsom would fare against former President Donald Trump, the likely Republican presidential nominee. A poll from July 2022 shows them polling about even.
But a poll from September found that voters prefer DeSantis to Newsom, 43% to 39%. Around 81% of Republican respondents supported DeSantis, while roughly 77% of Democrats sided with the Golden State governor.
DeSantis also made more headway with independent voters, 43% compared to Newsom’s 32%.
That will be Newsom’s challenge moving forward if he does intend to run for president in 2028 — or, less likely, in 2024 — convincing moderate voters a governor from progressive California can lead a country as large and politically diverse as the United States.
