Fact check: Gavin Newsom says California’s economy is booming. Is that correct?

Gov. Gavin Newsom, eager to convince the nation that California is booming, rattled off number after number to Sean Hannity on the Fox News host’s show recently.

While most of Newsom’s numbers were accurate, there was other, less flattering data he didn’t share.

Yes, California’s economy grew at one of the fastest paces in the nation in 2021. But Florida’s grew more last year.

Yes, more than one-fourth of the nation’s new jobs in April were in California. But the state’s unemployment rate remained well above the national average.

And so on. Newsom’s interview aired in two parts (June 12 and 16) on Hannity’s widely watched program — a rare instance of a prominent Democrat agreeing to lengthy interviews on the popular conservative channel.

It was a continuation of Newsom’s aggressive bid to establish himself as a prominent national figure — and possible presidential candidate. He has ruled out a 2024 bid, but 2028, when Newsom will turn 61, remains a real possibility.

Newsom vs. Hannity

Here’s a fact-check of Newsom’s comments, and his office’s responses to requests for elaboration:

▪ “Your president, Donald Trump, lost 2.6 million jobs during his four years.”

TRUE. When former President Donald Trump left office in January 2021, about 2 million fewer people were working than when he was inaugurated in January 2017. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that between January 2021 and April 2023 the economy added about 11 million jobs.

BUT...The Covid crisis that occurred during Trump’s presidency triggered a sudden, in some ways unprecedented, economic collapse. In April 2020, unemployment hit 14.7%, the highest level in the history of such federal data, dating back to January 1948.

That month, at the height of the COVID downturn, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics said 133 million people were reported to be working while 23 million people were without jobs. By the time Trump left office, 17 million more people were working.

▪ “In 2021, California (had) 7.8% of GDP growth in this country, one of the fastest growing economies anywhere on planet Earth.”

TRUE. China and India grew faster in 2021. but California outpaced Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, Mexico and virtually all other major free market countries. The state’s 2021 growth was one of the United States’ best, topped only by Tennessee and New Hampshire, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. California’s growth has made it the world’s fourth largest economy.

BUT...Florida, the state Newsom loves to criticize, grew 6.9% in 2021. Last year, it grew another 4%, while California’s economy grew 0.4%.

California’s share of the national economy has been slipping. Last year, the state had 14.4% of the national Gross Domestic Product, the value of the nation’s goods and services, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis.

That was down from 14.7% in 2021. The 2020 figure was 14.4%.

▪ ”The state continues to be the temple of the American economy, 25.6% of all American jobs came from this state in April.”

TRUE. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 253,000 new jobs nationwide in April, and 67,000 were in California.

BUT...California’s unemployment rate in recent years has been consistently higher than the nation’s, and that trend continued in April. The state rate was 4.5%, while the nation’s was 3.4%.

There were 867,600 unemployed Californians in April, up 7,400 from March and 76,100 from April 2022. Nationally, 5.7 million people were unemployed. That means roughly 15% of unemployed people in the U.S. lived in California.

Is California shrinking?

▪ ”Eighteen states had declines in population. California’s at 0.3 percent. You didn’t bring up any of the red states that had declining populations. It’s an interesting fact, and I don’t see it on here. It’s an interesting omitted fact.”

TRUE. Newsom was referring to Census Bureau data that showed California’s population was down 0.3% from 2021 to 2022, the 10th-worst decline among states.

Of the nine worst showings, three — Mississippi, Louisiana and West Virginia — are red states.

BUT...A Pew Research Center study said that from 2020 to 2021, 17 states lost population. “Among the 17 states where population declined over the year, losses were greatest in New York (-1.58%), Illinois (-0.89%), Hawaii (-0.71%) and California (-0.66%),” Pew said. All are blue.

Seen through a broader lens, the study found that during the 2010s, eight states “experienced their slowest decade of growth ever,” including California. Only Florida is a red state.

On homelessness: “I had 68,000 people off the streets last year.”

TRUE. Newsom’s office points to its homelessness initiatives. Project Roomkey, launched as the pandemic started in March 2020, attempts to place homeless people in non-traditional shelters such as hotels. He also created the Homekey program, which provides grants to local governments to help the homeless.

Through these programs, Newsom says, some 68,000 people have been taken “off the streets.”

BUT...The most authoritative measure of homelessness, HUD’s point-in-time count, takes a census of the homeless population on a single night in January.

Last year’s data showed a total of 171,521 people counted as homeless in California, with 115,491 unsheltered. In January 2019, Newsom’s first month in office, HUD reported California had 151,278 homeless people, including 108,431 unsheltered.

That would mean the number of unsheltered Californians increased by about 7,000 during the first three years of Newsom’s administration.

California and business

▪ “We have a 47% increase in business start-ups this year, compared to last year.”

TRUE. Newsom’s office cited Census Bureau data showing California had 46,015 more applications for new businesses in May than a year earlier, an increase of 17.7% While not at the 47% level, it’s still one of the best percentage increases in the country, trailing only Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming.

BUT...Florida received 53,528 applications in May, though it was only a 3.4% increase over the year. Texas’ applications dropped 3.5% to 38,196.

▪ “71% of the GDP in America are blue counties.”

TRUE. President Joe Biden won 509 counties in 2020 while former President Donald Trump won 2,547. Democrats are regarded as “blue” and Republicans as “red.”

A 2020 study by the Brookings Institution, a center-left Washington research group, found that the Biden counties account for 71% of the nation’s economic activity.

▪ More Floridians (have been) moving to California than Floridians that…came from California per capita.”

TRUE. Newsom’s office cited a PolitiFact study that looked at 2021 census data. It found that 1.16 per 1,000 Floridians moved to California in 2021 and 0.96 Californians moved to Florida that year.

Newsom’s staff points to a University of Minnesota study that found about 90 per 100,000 Californians moved to Florida in 2021, while about 123 per 100,000 Florida residents moved to California.

So, PolitiFact found, “Newsom’s statement is accurate but needs clarification or additional information. We rate it Mostly True.”