Gene Frenette: Gators' football, basketball fans should brace themselves for bumpy ride

University of Florida fans are in the midst of being put to the one test they routinely flunk: patience.

For Gators supporters, waiting on their definition of success in the two sports they care about most — football and men’s basketball — has never been a virtue. At least, not since head coaches Steve Spurrier and Billy Donovan spoiled them so badly, they get antsy at the first sign of a possible program rebuild.

Well, the respective architects of football and hoops, Billy Napier and Todd Golden, have either finished their first season or closing it out and the overriding consensus is both are a long way from being nationally relevant.

Not that expectations were terribly high for the debut seasons of Napier and Golden, but a 6-7 record in football and 14-15 in basketball (going into Tuesday’s game at Georgia) puts Florida’s biggest revenue sports in danger of having a losing season simultaneously for the first time since 1979-80.

For programs with a combined five national championships — UF is the only Division I school in the country with multiple national titles in both sports — hanging around .500 will always be viewed as a borderline disaster.

Both programs have had temporary dips, but consecutive 6-7 football seasons under two different coaches and now a basketball season heading in the wrong direction — though losing Colin Castleton to a hand injury didn’t help matters — has the fan base trying to gauge how long it must wait on a turnaround.

With the Gators playing in the rugged Southeastern Conference, where the arrival of Texas and Oklahoma in 2024 only makes winning any championship or football playoff access even harder, it might be time for UF fans to do the unthinkable and dial down expectations just a bit.

Nobody accustomed to seeing Florida hoist trophies, mostly in non-revenue sports, wants football and men’s basketball to be second-tier SEC programs. But until Napier and Golden can acquire more talent and establish a winning culture, the reality is the Gators are stuck being average for the moment.

That’s not what athletic director Scott Stricklin, whose own job security will likely become an issue if Napier and Golden don’t pan out, expects from UF’s highest profile sports.

SEC football Armageddon 

It’s hard to know at this point whether to look at the glass as half-full or half-empty for the future of Gator football.

Napier looks and sounds the part of a coach possibly being the long-term answer, but the gap between the Gators and programs like Georgia and Alabama isn’t something he’s likely to close significantly any time soon. Plus, Tennessee appears to be surging and incoming brands Texas and Oklahoma add to the cutthroat competition in recruiting.

The quarterback situation for 2023, with Wisconsin one-year transfer rental Graham Mertz considered the top option, appears lukewarm at best. Highly-regarded Willis High (Tx.) 2024 QB recruit DJ Lagway, a dual threat who talks openly about his desire to be the next Tim Tebow, gives UF fans some reason for optimism.

For now, Lagway’s commitment certainly eases some pain from the whole Jaden Rashada NIL fiasco, but Napier has a lot more on his to-do list before he can realistically put the Gators on a consistent SEC contender path.

Having to replace three assistant coaches who left for greener NFL pastures, including defensive coordinator Patrick Toney, is mildly concerning, but not the three-alarm fire some UF skeptics are making it out to be. It’s not like the Gator defense — ranked eighth or worse in the SEC the past three years, and last in 2022 in third-down stops — has anybody coaching them who’s irreplaceable.

Besides Mertz, UF is hoping transfers Cam’Ron Jackson (Memphis) at defensive tackle and linebacker Teradja Mitchell (Ohio State) can fortify a unit in desperate need of a major upgrade.

When you add the fact four out of five starters departed from a respectable offensive line, the reality is Napier’s football program might be two or three years away from becoming a league contender. And that’s if everything goes right.

Florida is not much different than a lot of SEC programs chasing Georgia and Alabama. Even with the benefit of a 12-team playoff, how often should Gator fans expect to be part of that postseason when there’s six or seven teams with similar resources in their own league?

This isn’t the same football landscape as the 1990s or mid-2000s. Most years, it’s realistic to think the SEC will get three or four schools into a 12-team playoff, but Florida being one of them in the next decade is a crapshoot.

A Golden opportunity?

One of the great myths about UF’s basketball season is that, if not for losing their best player Castleton to a broken hand two weeks ago against Ole Miss, the Gators might have made the NCAA Tournament.

Not likely. It’s doubtful the outcome of losing their last three games against Vanderbilt (88-72), Arkansas (84-65) and Kentucky (82-74) would have changed even if Castleton had remained healthy. Those losses now leave the Gators perilously close to missing the NIT as they did in 2014-15 when they finished 16-17 in Donovan’s last year.

Sure, Florida is much better with Castleton on the floor, being their leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker. But the fact is the Gators still allowed 32 of 68 three-pointers and 85.7 points per game to opponents in three games before Castleton got injured.

Translation: Golden’s roster wasn’t good enough around Castleton to be the difference between getting to March Madness and being a spectator.

Riley Kugel has stepped up his game significantly in Castleton’s absence (20.1 points per game), but the freshman guard was also held to single digit points in 17 of his first 22 games.

None of the other top scoring options — Will Richard, Kyle Lofton, Kowacie Reeves or Riverside High product Alex Fudge — have played with anywhere near the consistency required to give Florida a legitimate shot to win more games.

When he got the job, Golden promised a more entertaining, vibrant product, but that didn’t happen all that much even when Castleton was doing everything to keep his team in contention.

The truth is Florida hoops, outside of an occasional upset of a ranked team now and then, has been rather average for five years. Their 45-41 SEC record in that span, seventh-best in the league, attests to that.

It’s doubtful the Gators rise much above that next season without Castleton, unless Golden strikes gold in the transfer portal or some of the returning starters significantly elevate their games.

A couple big men, Thomas Haugh and Australia’s Alex Condon, coming aboard may help Florida, but Golden has to start stringing together top-25 recruiting classes to get the program where he aspires it to be.

It’s still too early to know how well Napier and Golden can take advantage of Florida’s resources in the NIL/transfer portal era. What is undeniable is the Gators, in both football and basketball, face a much tougher challenge to reach their potential once Texas and Oklahoma join the SEC.

Be patient, UF fans. Your average football and basketball programs remain a work in progress.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540  

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: UF fans should brace for continued mediocrity in football, hoops | Opinion