Gene Frenette: Jaguars don't have top-5 NFL pick, but player they covet should be there at 24

If the Jacksonville Jaguars must wait until 24th overall to make their first NFL Draft pick, this is about as good a year to do it as any.

While it’s impossible to know for certain which players might be gone when the Jaguars are on the clock, there’s a reasonably good chance someone they covet will be available.

Whichever “two or three guys” that GM Trent Baalke says he has in mind for the team’s first-round pick — in a smokescreen-filled process, that number might really be four or five prospects — the Jaguars hopefully come away with a player as productive as running back Travis Etienne, the No. 25 selection in 2021.

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To that end, whatever priority Baalke, coach Doug Pederson and personnel evaluators have put on each draft prospect, they should in most instances stick to that value board and not be overly swayed by reaching at positions of need. More on that later.

At last, barring an inexplicable trade up, the Jaguars are out of the top-10 picking business after going that route 14 of the past 15 years.

This draft is another reminder to savor having a promising quarterback like Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars can let other AFC South teams and whoever else stress over which of the four projected first-round quarterbacks — Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis — they might take or even if they’ll be available before Baalke is on the clock.

A fifth quarterback, Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, is also a potential first-rounder, depending on the level of a team’s desperation.

“When you don’t need a quarterback and there’s four or five of them in the draft people are coveting. . . . it is going to push everybody back down,” said Baalke. “You hope there’s other positions that aren’t real needs of yours that are heavy at the top end, too, because that will continue to push guys down.

“We need as many guys to go ahead of us as possible, and hopefully we’ll have our pick of two or three guys that we have in mind right now.”

Drafting late not detriment

Picking in the bottom quarter of the NFL draft might appear to be a disadvantage. But given the Jaguars’ roster situation and the depth available at positions of biggest need, the potential to hit on the right players like they did in 2021 is there.

Baalke got off to a terrific start when he traded for Atlanta Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley in November, a brilliant preemptive strike because this draft is somewhat thin at that position.

It just so happens this draft is well stocked at cornerback, edge rusher and tight end, all spots the Jaguars could either use an upgrade or possibly an insurance policy without an Evan Engram long-term contract extension.

One Jaguars’ insider told me this is one of the weaker drafts he’s ever seen once picks get beyond the third round, and Dane Brugler — the uber-intuitive draft analyst for The Athletic — wholeheartedly agrees, texting me: “Don’t love the day 3 players this year.”

Other than maybe adding a core special-teams guy in rounds 4-7, the Jaguars’ roster is finally in a good enough place where only picks 24, 56 and 88 have a realistic shot at being long-term fixtures in Jacksonville anyway.

That’s why it’s imperative for the Jaguars to take advantage of the draft offering them an ideal balance of value and need in the top rounds, with a heavier emphasis on the former.

Baalke’s draft history, as well as what he told the Jaguars’ media last week, suggests he follows that formula.

“You’re always balancing need and value, and when you say that, really, each year the board is different,” said Baalke. “Some years, the O-line, D-line are more prominent than maybe the edge guys or vice-versa, inside versus out. You’re still setting the board based on value.

“Once you’ve got the board set on value, then you start looking at the needs. You don’t want to push players up the board value-wise just because you have a need at that position. Most of the time, the value and need come together.”

Brugler is bullish on the Jaguars coming away with a quality first-rounder, saying: “I think there is a good chance someone will be there they really like. But when you pick in the 20s, you’re likely out of first round grades at that point.”

Trust evaluation process 

It’s a crapshoot trying to figure out what direction the Jaguars might go with their first-round pick.

There’s so many variables, between guessing who remains on the board and how the Jaguars have prioritized needs. The truth is anyone predicting four players Baalke might take at No. 24 probably has a 50 percent chance of being wrong.

So which prospect should the Jaguars take if they stay put in the first round? Versatile Alabama safety/nickel back Brian Branch or the other Bryan, defensive tackle Bresee from Clemson?

Other names potentially enticing the Jaguars are cornerbacks Joey Porter (Penn State), Deonte Banks (Maryland) and Emmanul Forbes (Mississippi State), along with edge rushers Nolan Smith (Georgia), Lukas Van Ness (Iowa) and Myles Murphy (Clemson). That is, if any of them are even available.

But whatever happens, the Jaguars would be better off making sure they acquire a player with greater value because outside of quarterback, receiver and linebacker, the need component in most spots is going to be there. If not this year, then in 2024.

For instance, let’s say the Jaguars’ value board has tight ends Dalton Kincaid (Utah) and Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) listed significantly higher than any edge rusher, cornerback or offensive lineman available.

That might not be the case, but if it was, why pass up a higher-valued player just because another prospect happens to play a position of greater need?

The Jaguars finally have a formidable roster, one good enough to be considered an AFC South favorite next season. Doesn’t it make a lot more sense to have a tight end grading out as a 9.2 -- giving the Jaguars a future alternative to Engram – than a boundary corner or pass-rusher who checks in at 8.5?

Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence might be the best pure guard in the draft, but with no flexibility to play another position, he might not have better value to the Jaguars than a couple SEC tackles, Darnell Wright (Tennessee) and Broderick Jones (Georgia), or Syracuse's Matthew Bergeron.

Look, there are only 127 “draftable” players the Jaguars believe will fit their culture, which is about half the number of total draft selections. So Baalke might as well take prospects the Jaguars view as better value over ones that fill a greater need.

Owner Shad Khan is paying a lot of money to Baalke, the Jaguars’ coaches and scouting department to figure all this stuff out.

With drafting such an inexact science, the Jaguars are better off doing the one thing to maximize their draft: trust the board.

A better GM emerges 

When you look at Baalke’s draft record with the San Francisco 49ers (2012-16), it’s a mixed bag.

Four of his five first-round picks (DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, Jimmie Ward and Eric Reid) were defensive players who have combined for 366 career starts and three Pro Bowls. Another first-rounder, receiver A.J. Jenkins from Parker High, was a complete bust.

It’s staggering how many Baalke second-day draft picks, among them Joshua Garnett, Will Redmond, Marcus Martin, Chris Borland, Brandon Thomas, Tank Carradine and LaMichael James, didn’t pan out. But as we all know, drafting is a hit-and-miss business with just about every GM.

Since being put in charge of the Jaguars’ selections, Baalke has hit for a much higher batting average, particularly from the first three rounds of the 2021 class (Lawrence, Etienne, Tyson Campbell, Walker Little, Andre Cisco).

My guess is Baalke’s somewhat chaotic experience with the 49ers, especially his chilly relationship with coach Jim Harbaugh that led to being roundly criticized in media circles, has made him a more effective GM.

Given the esprit de corps Pederson gushes about with Baalke, there’s probably a better chance than not of the Jaguars getting decent mileage out of those same rounds this year, though the 2022 class outside of third-round center Luke Fortner remains mostly a work in progress.

One thing is certain: the Jaguars are probably not going to fill every need in this draft. Either the defense has too many holes to plug, or injuries will happen at positions where the replacement is a big drop-off.

So Baalke should just stick to his board, fortify the roster with the best talent and hope the Jaguars make the right judgment call.

If not, at least you have Trevor Lawrence, who can make up for a lot of shortcomings.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Trevor Lawrence presence makes draft easier for Jaguars to wait on 24th pick