Gene Frenette: Jaguars, long known as an AFC South afterthought, should be division favorite

For whatever segment of Jaguars fans are still unconvinced about this team’s readiness to be a playoff contender, or question whether its hopes of winning the AFC South are realistic, just abandon those thoughts.

Now it’s understandable why some might be pessimistic on both counts, given the 44-120 record of the previous decade. The Jaguars have earned a reputation for being among the NFL’s most notorious underachievers.

Time and time again, they have killed or severely diminished preseason optimism by Halloween.

Well, those were the Jaguars of yesteryear, but not this team.

Gene's previous 3 columns:

• Honoring a Jags legend: Jaguars documentary on Tony Boselli a fitting tribute to an amazing football life

• Comeback trail: Maybe playing his old home course will bring spark to David Duval's game

• Missed opportunity: Lawrence turnovers, Jaguars defense waste chance to be special in Philly

It won’t be doing what so many others coached by Jack Del Rio (last 4 years), Mike Mularkey, Gus Bradley, Doug Marrone (except for the 2017 outlier) and Urban Meyer did early and often.

Why? Because the 2022 Jaguars have so many good qualities that their predecessors lacked, starting with a creative, no-panic leader in head coach Doug Pederson. He knows how to build a team and also happens to be a pretty good play-caller.

Pederson and his assembly of quarterback whisperers (Press Taylor, Mike McCoy, Jim Bob Cooter) have made Trevor Lawrence feel more comfortable, and thus more productive, because No. 16 respects their offensive acumen.

Trevor is being given a real voice in the game plan, thanks to a coaching entourage of former QBs who have a good feel for unleashing his vast potential.

Beyond the infusion of upgraded talent through free agency and the draft — particularly Christian Kirk, Foye Oluokun, Foley Fatukasi, Zay Jones, Brandon Scherff, Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd and Luke Fortner — what also separates the ‘22 Jaguars from those coming before them is their connectivity.

In 28 years of covering this franchise, I’d be hard pressed to identify one or two teams that have bonded as quickly as these guys. Some might have had more talent and experienced on-field success, but the tight-knit relationships Pederson’s Jaguars have formed is evident by how hard they play and the joy they get from being around each other.

Another benefit is the 2-2 Jaguars, heading into Sunday’s matchup with the Houston Texans at TIAA Bank Field, have a roster chock-full of ascending players.

Almost everybody outside of maybe 32-year-old receiver Marvin Jones, whose contract expires after this season, has an arrow pointing up on their career trajectory.

There’s strong reason to believe the Jaguars will be better in 2023, ‘24 and ‘25, especially if Pederson and GM Trent Baalke continue to acquire players that fit into the team-first mentality that permeates a cohesive locker room.

“Credit to Doug [Pederson] on that,” said fourth-year outside linebacker Josh Allen. “I feel like the trust you have to have in your coaches plays along with that. This is a young team that we know, mentally, can win. To trust the process, you have to trust the people calling the shots.

“I think Doug and the coaches are going about it the right way, to help us feel that we are the top dogs. That helps us play with a sense of urgency, a sense of knowing we can dominate because we’ve shown it.”

AFC South top dogs?

Four games into the season, the Jaguars have put together a resume that has completely changed the perception of where everybody thought this team was a month ago.

Cautious optimism, or maybe a wait-and-see approach, has given way to legitimate hope. The Jaguars have the look of a good team in a mediocre division. NFL national pundits and oddsmakers are no longer dismissing Pederson’s team as being automatically a notch below the 2-2 Tennessee Titans or 2-2-1 Indianapolis Colts, but could, and maybe even should, be the AFC South favorite.

One indicator is just looking at the point differentials of the respective division members: Jaguars +38, Titans -26, Colts -25, Texans -20. The Jaguars and a much-improved Lawrence are averaging 26.3 points per game, more than a touchdown better than Tennessee and Houston, and nearly double Indianapolis.

With the kindest part of their schedule in the next four-game stretch — Texans, at Colts, New York Giants and Denver Broncos in London — a glorious opportunity to seize control of the AFC South awaits the Jaguars.

Sunday’s matchup against the 0-3-1 Texans, who surprisingly own an eight-game winning streak over the Jaguars despite being just as talent-challenged the past two years, is somewhat of a crossroad game.

If the touchdown-favored Jaguars want to get into the driver’s seat in the division (held the solo lead or shared it with Tennessee the entire 2017 season), it’s imperative to take care of business Sunday and next week against the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium.

They couldn’t ask for a better setup. While Houston is a pesky team that plays above its talent, you can’t lose at home to the Texans and expect to raise an AFC South banner. Neither the Texans or the Colts have any kind of explosive element to their offense, so this is low hanging fruit the Jaguars must pick off.

Did you watch Indianapolis’ eye-gouging 12-9 overtime victory Thursday night over the Denver Broncos? Do you remember how overwhelmed 37-year-old Colts quarterback Matt Ryan (three interceptions) looked here against the Jaguars’ defense in a 24-0 mismatch three weeks ago?

With the Colts’ offensive line going from a strength to arguably its biggest weakness (Ryan has been sacked 21 times), and defending NFL rushing champion Jonathan Taylor unable to find a groove, it’s hard to foresee the Jaguars going to Indy and falling to the league’s lowest-scoring team (13.8 ppg).

That leaves Tennessee as probably the biggest obstacle to an AFC South title, but the Titans haven’t been the same since losing as a No. 1 seed to the Cincinnati Bengals in last year’s playoffs. Tennessee still has to deal with a brutal five-week schedule gauntlet later this season — featuring road games against Kansas City, Green Bay and Philadelphia and a home date with the Bengals — that is much tougher than the Jaguars’ remaining slate.

In addition, the Titans have been outscored 64-7 in the second half this season, while also losing left tackle Taylor Lewan and pass-rusher Harold Landry to season-ending injuries.

So the Jaguars’ relatively good health, outside of run-stopper Fatukasi (quad) missing the Texans’ game, and the juice of a Lawrence-led offense puts them in a good place to emerge as a division frontrunner.

A Jaguars transformation

As disappointing as last week’s 29-21 loss was to the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles, that should actually reaffirm Jacksonville’s position as an AFC South favorite than cast doubt on it.

Considering the Jaguars had five turnovers (four Lawrence fumbles and an interception) against Philly and still had a chance at the end to force overtime on the road, that’s rather encouraging.

It speaks volumes about the resiliency of Pederson’s team, which blew a 14-0 lead, that they still had a chance to beat his former employer under those giveaway circumstances.

Most Jaguars teams wouldn’t have hung in there. Historically, in 35 Jaguars games where they turned the ball over a minimum four times, their record is 1-34 (beat Cleveland 24-20 in 2010 with six turnovers) and the average margin of defeat is 15.3 points.

“All you got to do is turn on the film and see for yourself,” said Jaguars pass-rusher Arden Key. “We don’t have to do too much talking. You can tell this is not the same Jaguars of the last two, four, six, eight years.”

“Whatever picture of previous Jags teams people have, I feel like they should get rid of that because this is a different team,” said rookie linebacker Devin Lloyd. “I wasn’t on the past teams, but hearing from what guys have said, this team has a different mindset.”

Pederson said Monday that he saw no reason to “browbeat them over the head” about the turnover-plagued loss to the Eagles. That’s because Lawrence and his teammates don’t need a refresher course on the importance of ball security.

They know as long as they avoid an inordinate amount of similar mishaps the rest of October, they can take command of the division.

“I think the positive is seeing how well we can play and how good we can be when we don’t make mistakes and we don’t shoot ourselves in the foot,” Lawrence said. “We really believe in who we are and the talent we have. … You have to have talent to be a good team in this league, and everybody does, but it’s really the way we work, the way we prepare, our process. We trust that and it’s been paying off for us.”

The payoff that matters, which could be decided in a Week 18 showdown at TIAA Bank Field against the Titans, is winning the AFC South.

Suddenly, with a stout defense and a quarterback showing signs of coming into his own, that’s not a far-fetched idea. The division is there for the taking and the Jaguars finally look good enough to take it.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540  

Gene Frenette Sports columnist at Florida Times-Union, follow him on Twitter @genefrenette

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: No joke, ascending Jaguars should now be considered AFC South favorite