Gene Frenette: Jaguars positioning themselves for explosive offense in '23

An argument can be made that no NFL team in recent months has seen the winds of momentum push them forward better than the Jaguars.

Sure, the Kansas City Chiefs beat them twice and won the Super Bowl, but Andy Reid’s team and greatness have been connected for a decade. KC has supplanted the New England Patriots as the new dynasty.

But in terms of up-and-coming franchises, not necessarily the next-best one, the Jaguars fit that description as well as anyone. Nowhere moreso than on offense, where the arrival of head coach Doug Pederson is serving as an ideal guidepost for the development of prized quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

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Given how things have transpired the past four months — the miracle recovery to wrest the AFC South title from the Tennessee Titans, the insane playoff comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers, retaining the services of tight end Evan Engram and now difference-making receiver Calvin Ridley officially being in the fold — it feels like the Jaguars are sitting on a time bomb.

Meaning, in a good way.

Their offense, easily the NFL’s lowest-scoring (18.13 points per game) unit from 2011-21, is on a completely different trajectory. It has the capacity to go off next season and beyond like no other time in franchise existence.

Think about this: the Jaguars scored 404 points last season, which was a 151-point jump from the previous year and the third-most in their 28 seasons. That’s almost a nine points per-game improvement in one year, much of it in the second half, so it’s not completely far-fetched that point total increases another 50-100 points in 2023.

Can the ceiling be 500-plus points? Sounds crazy for a franchise that never exceeded 417 in its history, but with Lawrence comfortably settled into the system of Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor, it cannot be ruled out.

“I see where you’re coming from,” said receiver/return specialist Jamal Agnew in a phone interview this week. “We finished the season strong and got a lot of momentum. We got a bunch of playmakers, and you add (Calvin) Ridley, one of the best route-runners in the league and us being the second year in the [Pederson] system, the sky’s the limit.

“But we’re not even worried about 500 points. We’re just worried about scoring more points than the other team.”

An exclusive 500 club 

Agnew’s mindset has become a Jaguars’ trademark under Pederson. Players focus on day-to-day improvement, and when the season begins, they’re expected to devote all their energy into winning that week without any concern for numbers or individual glory.

Still, it cannot be ignored how the Jaguars have the potential to become one of the NFL’s more explosive offenses, much of it tied to how much the light seemed to go on for Trevor after losing to the Denver Broncos in London.

Whether they can be 500-points good might seem a bit presumptuous, especially when you consider only 25 teams have reached that plateau since the advent of free agency in 1993 and only two (1984 Miami Dolphins, 1983 Washington Commanders) before then. Those teams have a 34-21 playoff record and reached 10 Super Bowls (winning four).

But with high-scoring offenses a virtual necessity now to reach the postseason, it’s not hyperbole to say Lawrence’s evolution as a quarterback — coupled with Ridley joining a cast of weapons like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Travis Etienne and Engram — is the franchise’s biggest development ever.

Ridley minced no words this week about what teaming up with Lawrence can do for his career and the team’s fortunes.

“He’s a great quarterback, young, smart, got an arm,” Ridley told Bucky Brooks of jaguars.com. “I know that my tools coming to play with him, I can just see us doing really, really big things. He has the arm strength to reach me, and I can get open on a lot of different guys.

“We have a lot of teammates that can help. I just think he’s a great talent, the arm strength, and me, my ability with that, I think it really can work out good.”

Maybe a lot better than good when you look at the potential of the Jaguars’ offense to keep ascending. Remember, the only potential significant loss is impending free agent right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who may be tempted to stay here with his family a 150-mile drive south in Cocoa.

Even if Taylor leaves for a monster contract, the Jaguars have Walker Little waiting in the wings, plus a likely addition for depth to pluck from the first two days of the NFL draft (picks 24, 56 or 88).

Scoring the ticket to playoffs 

One reason the Jaguars’ future is so promising is team numbers are trending in an ideal direction to continue reaching the postseason.

When points come in bigger bunches, even when a team’s defense is just average or slightly above, that’s a good formula to stay in playoff contention and make a Super Bowl run.

Each time the Jaguars have reached 400 points (2022, ‘17 and ‘07), they have made the postseason and won at least one playoff game.

In the last five years, 48 of 58 teams scoring 400-plus points have gone to the playoffs and compiled a respectable 54-44 record.

A much higher percentage of teams get to the postseason these days by being top-10 in scoring than top-10 in points allowed. The last three Super Bowl champions — Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — were 10th, 15th and tied for 10th in scoring defense. Last season, the Jaguars were 12th in that department.

Not that Pederson doesn’t want an elite defense, but it’s understandable why a potent offense is a higher priority. And with Lawrence starting to live up to his pre-draft hype, the Jaguars are likely going to be dangerous for years to come.

Nine of the top 10 scoring teams made the playoffs last season, including the Jaguars at 23.8 ppg. It’s reasonable to think that number is going to go up again. By what amount is speculative, but the pieces are in place for Jaguars’ fans to experience high-end entertainment.

“I think we can be an explosive offense,” Agnew said. “We know what our identity is, what our formula is. We really attack it week by week, regardless of who we’re playing. We don’t always have to attack the same way.

“We got a little taste of where we want to be ultimately last season, and that’s just making everybody more hungry. We can’t wait to get back into the building and go to work. We want to be contending with the best of the best. That’s the goal.”

With an offense positioned to be historically potent, the Jaguars have a Super Bowl window that could be open for quite a while.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540 

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: It's not far-fetched to think Trevor Lawrence-led offense hits 500 club