Gene Frenette: Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence entering NFL golden age for young, promising QBs
In Tony Dungy’s first year as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defensive coordinator in 1984, there were plenty of sleepless nights contemplating the lineup of AFC quarterbacks he’d be facing over the next five seasons.
Every other week, it seemed the Steelers — then struggling to find a long-term successor to Terry Bradshaw — were facing either a future Hall of Fame quarterback or a Pro Bowl-caliber player who made life miserable for defenses.
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Dungy had to formulate game plans to contain the likes of young gunslingers Dan Marino, John Elway, Warren Moon, Jim Kelly, Boomer Esiason and Bernie Kosar.
“It’s the only other time I can recall a comparison to now,” said Dungy. “Almost every week in the AFC, you were playing someone that was dynamite.”
Nearly 40 years later, the Jaguars better buckle up and get used to facing a stout AFC lineup of quarterbacks for the next decade that could rival the blockbuster group from two generations ago.
Any hope the Jaguars have of becoming a consistent playoff force in the future will require holding their own against seven elite or promising AFC quarterbacks — all 27 years old or under — that figure to be leading playoff contenders or have teams consistently in the NFL postseason.
It starts with the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, both league MVPs the Jaguars face Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium and in their next game after a bye week on Nov. 27, respectively.
After that 1-2 punch, there’s a potent group headlined by the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen, the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow, the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert, the Cleveland Browns’ Deshaun Watson and now the Miami Dolphins’ vastly improved Tua Tagovailoa.
Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid, one of the best quarterback developers in the league, marvels at the depth of young QBs currently inhabiting the AFC that has already collected 11 Pro Bowl berths.
Looking at the NFC side, the Philadelphia Eagles' 24-year-old Jalen Hurts is leading the NFL's lone unbeaten team, while Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is a two-time Pro Bowler.
“You know, it’s wild, but again, isn’t that great?” said Reid. “That’s a positive thing. The NFL is continuing to grow and they can’t grow without good quarterbacks. That’s just how it goes, so I think it’s a tremendous thing for everybody.
“It’s a unique time, I would say. We probably all need to enjoy it.”
Trevor next in line?
The AFC’s deep lineup of quarterbacks begs the obvious question as it pertains to the Jaguars: will 2021 No. 1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence ascend to the point where he is considered on par or ahead of any of them?
Just 26 games into his career, Lawrence isn’t anywhere near that group in any of the significant measuring sticks for a quarterback. Whether it’s completion percentage, touchdown/interception ratio, QB rating or won-loss record, the youngest starter in the NFL (Lawrence turned 23 in October) lags behind that AFC top tier.
But considering this is his first year in coach Doug Pederson’s system, he needs a little more time to catch up to his peers who entered the league in more stable situations.
Lawrence has made strides and posted better numbers in his second season, especially his TD/interception ratio (11/6) and completion percentage (64.3), but still lacks the consistency many top AFC quarterbacks acquired early in their careers.
“When that quarterback develops, you stay in the [playoff] hunt and get talked about as a playoff contender for a long time,” said Dungy. “The Colts were contending every year with Peyton [Manning], the Patriots with [Tom] Brady. Unless something happens in Kansas City and Buffalo, those teams are going to be a contender every year.
“That’s what you hope Trevor develops into, and I think he will. Remember what people were saying about Josh Allen and Tua 25 games into their careers? There was uncertainty there. People expected Trevor to be Peyton Manning, dysfunctional the first year and then light things up the second year, thinking now he’s not going to have any more hiccups.
“Well, you’re seeing hiccups, but I think he’ll start to get rid of the head-scratcher [games] and grow and grow. The other quarterbacks had a chance to grow in the same system. I’m going to give Trevor a grace year. I think he’s going to develop with Doug [Pederson]. He’ll take things out [of the playbook] Trevor doesn’t like and that will help him grow.”
One advantage for the Jaguars, at least for now, is all of the best AFC quarterbacks are outside their division. Two are in the AFC West (Mahomes, Herbert), three in the AFC North (Jackson, Burrow, Watson) and two in the AFC East (Allen, Tagovailoa), so the Jaguars will likely face no more than three or four of those elite young QBs in a given year, though others considered too inexperienced or pedestrian now could rise into that top tier.
For the 3-6 Jaguars, getting Lawrence to fulfill his vast potential can’t get here soon enough. If he can keep making strides the last eight weeks, it’s conceivable he could be the top AFC South quarterback by the end of the season.
“It’s important in the AFC to have that guy and develop him because you’re going to be facing a top quarterback in the playoffs and that’s an uphill battle,” Dungy said. “You’re seeing that with Tennessee. They’re going to win a lot of regular season games, but you get to the playoffs, you can’t succeed with mediocre quarterback play.
“The Jaguars will get strong quarterback play and have a very good defense in time. If you asked me who’s going to win the most games in the AFC South over the next five years, I’d bet on the Jags.”
Great QBs busting out all over
Pederson has as much a keen eye for what makes a great quarterback as anybody. During his 13-year NFL career, he served as a backup to Brett Favre with the Green Bay Packers and as a third-team Miami Dolphins QB when Marino was the starter.
He was also a contemporary of future Hall of Famers Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly and Steve Young. In watching the evolution of the position over 14 seasons as an NFL coach, he’s not surprised to see an AFC overloaded with strong quarterback play.
“I would say over the years, the position has changed probably a little more toward the Steve Young-type of quarterback where these guys are a little more athletic, can move around a lot better,” Pederson said. “The offenses are different. The RPO [run-pass option] has changed our game, but the talent of quarterbacks is still high, especially in the AFC, and there’s some great young quarterbacks that are up and coming.”
The NFL is reaping the benefits of year-round training for quarterbacks at both the high school and college levels. With many working on developing their skillsets at a younger age, particularly with 7-on-7 camps, more of them enter college and the NFL ready to compete and successfully process complicated playbooks.
One of those QBs is now under Pederson’s tutelage. Though many in the NFL are divided about whether Lawrence will ascend into the elite category, Reid is not among the skeptics.
He spoke of Trevor this week like there’s little doubt of him being a future star. It leaves many to wonder if Reid was engaging in gamesmanship or is sold on Lawrence being the generational QB many touted him to be.
“I think the league is in great hands with quarterbacks that they have in place right now, which is a beautiful thing,” said Reid. “It’s great for all these different cities that have bought into having an NFL franchise. You got to have a good quarterback, and you guys are lucky there in Jacksonville that you have one.”
Jaguars need to have patience
Still, Dungy cautions people about any rush to judgement on young quarterbacks. Just as Jaguars’ fans are anxious about Lawrence accelerating his progress, Dungy reminds people that it’s more likely he will start to hit his stride next year and beyond.
“I have to give the coaches credit, they’re taking what these guys have and fitting it to their style, like Miami [Dolphins] with Tua,” said Dungy. “They thought for a little while they might have to move on, but Tua has come around. Lamar [Jackson], they didn’t know what he was going to be at first and they’ve tailored things to him.
“Remember the talk about Josh Allen early on, how he’s inaccurate, this and that? Now these guys are blossoming. I think it’s a combination of [coaches] fitting their system to these guys and unbelievable [quarterback] talent.”
If Lawrence is the right guy for the Jaguars, the payoff will hopefully be No. 16 formulating quarterback rivalries with Mahomes, Jackson, Herbert, Allen, Burrow, Tagovailoa or others for a decade or more.
The Brady-Manning showdowns were the closest thing the NFL ever had to the NBA’s Bird-Magic rivalry. Those QBs met 17 times, with Brady prevailing 11-6.
But other memorable QB rivalries like Kelly and Marino (21 meetings, 14-7 record for Kelly), Aikman and Young (7 meetings, 4-3 record for Aikman), Johnny Unitas and Bart Starr (16 meetings, tied 8-8) left their mark on NFL history because the greatness in each of them was undeniable.
Now the Chiefs’ Mahomes is leading possibly the greatest generation of NFL quarterbacks, all aiming to leave their own lasting legacies. The Jaguars are banking on Trevor Lawrence becoming one of them.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540
Gene Frenette Sports columnist at Florida Times-Union, follow him on Twitter @genefrenette
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jaguars hope Lawrence can reach ranks of Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Burrow
