Gene Frenette: Jaguars have upgrade in Pederson, next needs better players around Lawrence

Just by virtue of dumping Urban Meyer for a real NFL head coach in Doug Pederson, the Jaguars — barring disastrous health circumstances — should at least double their win total to six in 2022.

That’s how much having a real leader who knows what he’s doing, plus having the benefit of being in a mediocre AFC South division, gives this franchise a chance to get back toward respectability.

But let’s not be misguided about what it’s going to take for the Jaguars to ascend to the point where Pederson’s team can become a consistent playoff contender, maybe even become the Cincinnati Bengals in two years.

Jacksonville’s new coaching staff can’t make that happen without a massive influx of difference-making players over the next 70 days.

If you want to make Pederson, offensive coordinator Press Taylor, passing game coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and the remaining staff better coaches, then start by not wasting $60 million-plus in salary cap space. Make sure this year’s 12 draft picks are not invested in underperforming players, which has been the Jaguars’ biggest downfall the past decade and beyond.

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Just look at this team’s free agency and draft scoreboard since owner Shad Khan took over in the 2012 season. It’s mostly somewhere between "meh" and "atrocious," depending on the year in question.

Of the 69 free agents signed in the past decade — bear in mind over half of those are mid-level guys with modest salaries and expectations — only the likes of Calais Campbell, Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson and A.J. Bouye were probably worth the big money the front office shelled out for them.

It’s too early to know whether current Jaguars Shaquill Griffin ($44.5 million) or safety Rayshawn Jenkins ($35 million) can live up to their paydays, but certainly not so far.

Jaguars' suspect drafting costly

The draft side isn’t a whole lot better. Aside from the home runs former GM Dave Caldwell hit in 2016 with Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack and Yannick Ngakoue in the top three rounds — and two of them eventually talked their way into being traded — there were too many misses.

From 2012-15, the only players taken in the first three rounds who made it to second contracts were center Brandon Linder and guard A.J. Cann. The only first-round picks still on the roster are pass rusher Josh Allen (2019), Trevor Lawrence (2021), Travis Etienne (2021) and K'Lavon Chaisson (2020).

This maddening trend can’t go on or Pederson will likely suffer the same fate as Doug Marrone and Gus Bradley, both of whom were issued a pink slip within four years.

Pederson is under no illusion about the challenge he’s undertaking. He knows good coaching in the NFL can only take you so far.

It’s always about player procurement, as the Bengals’ massive turnaround from 2-14 in 2019 to a Super Bowl appearance this season demonstrated.

Yes, Zac Taylor and his staff did a great job. But the biggest reason for Cincinnati’s ascent was it acquired 30 of its top 44 players, including first-round picks quarterback Joe Burrow and receiver Ja’Marr Chase, in the past two years.

“Look, every year there’s turnover in the NFL, right?” Pederson said at a Friday press conference introducing offensive coordinator Press Taylor (Zac’s brother) and defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. “Every roster goes through, every team goes through the same process. But when I see. … you see flashes. You see the offense taking strides throughout the course of the year. You see the defense making those strides.

“But I see talent here. I said I think in my opening remarks a couple weeks ago that it’s not an overnight fix, and it’s going to be a fix that we’ve got to do it one player at a time, one coach at a time, and get it turned around.”

Translation: The Jaguars have been a below-average team with a talent shortage for more than a decade (except the outlier 2017 season) and it shows up in their inconsistent play. They have never been good enough to sustain success, and that goes for the roster Pederson has inherited, even with a promising quarterback like Lawrence in the building.

Next few weeks will define next few years

That’s why these next 10 weeks, and what transpires in the next 12 months after the draft, will largely determine the kind of product the Jaguars put on the field over the long haul.

Think back to what led to the Jaguars’ AFC South championship in 2017, a team that came within an eyelash of going to the Super Bowl. Why was that ball club so different than any other the entire decade?

Well, you had the ‘16 draft trifecta of Ramsey, Jack and Ngakoue in their second season, well before all the drama forced Ramsey and Ngakoue out the door.

The Jaguars also had impact free agent acquisitions in Gipson and Jackson, then Campbell and Bouye the following offseason, and it all coalesced into one of the NFL’s best defenses of the decade.

Had Blake Bortles lived up to his status as a No. 3 overall draft pick, and the quarterback position not become a liability, things might have turned out different for the Jaguars in 2018 and possibly ‘19.

Making this rebuild work

Now, yet again, they’re in a rebuild. But the roster challenge for Pederson, general manager Trent Baalke and whoever might become the team’s new Executive Vice-President (a hiring which may have to wait another week or so) is quite different.

The Jaguars have that franchise quarterback. Lawrence just needs a better offensive line and some proven weapons — something other AFC quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Burrow have in abundance — for him to fulfill all his potential. They also need to beef up the pass-rush so the defense can force more turnovers.

All this fixing starts March 16, the first day of free agency. With a Super Bowl-winning head coach in the house, there’s no reason the cap-healthy Jaguars can’t land two or three premium free agents.

Some of them will come off the board as teams franchise-tag their UFAs. Still, for starters, there’s plenty of top-flight receivers (Davante Adams, Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, former Jaguar Allen Robinson) and tight ends (Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, Dalton Schultz) on the market.

No doubt, what the Jaguars decide on their two biggest free-agents, receiver DJ Chark and left tackle Cam Robinson, will affect their free-agency and draft game plans. At this point, it’s hard to envision Chark staying and Robinson’s future in Jacksonville depends on whether Walker Little is viewed as a sure thing long-term at that position.

It’s not like Chark or Robinson leaving will put the Jaguars in some kind of terrible bind. Yes, they’re fine players, meaning sometimes average, sometimes better-than-average.

That’s the problem. The Jaguars’ best players can’t be just average or better-than-average. They need an influx of really good to eventually great players. You can win with average players in some spots, but there’s zero chance of sustaining success without difference-makers at key positions beyond quarterback.

The Jaguars have a proven head coach in Doug Pederson and a promising QB in Trevor Lawrence.

Unfortunately, that’s not enough. NFL teams cannot scheme their way to the top.

Go get some players who move the chains, find the end zone, sack the quarterback and force turnovers. Otherwise, the Jaguars are going to stay in the NFL abyss or rarely be above average.

Gfrenete@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540

Gene Frenette Sports columnist at Florida Times-Union, follow him on Twitter @genefrenette

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jaguars' hope for future ascent lies with better players around Trevor