Gene Frenette: For next decade, Trevor Lawrence must conquer elite AFC quarterbacks

Every spectator at TIAA Bank Field for the Jaguars’ AFC wild-card matchup Saturday night against the Los Angeles Chargers should appreciate the moment.

Not for the potential impact of what a victory might mean for the Jaguars, but the extraordinary entertainment value coming to half the AFC stadiums in the next decade or so.

How good will it be watching the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence trying to outduel the Chargers’ Justin Herbert on a playoff stage? The best part is it’s merely a small taste of the phenomenal AFC quarterback showdowns that No. 16 will have to navigate for the prime of his career and beyond.

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Just look at the AFC quarterback lineup of the top-5 playoff seeds. The Kansas City Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Buffalo Bills (Josh Allen), Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Burrow), Jaguars and Chargers unquestionably have the best at the position among healthy quarterbacks.

They might even be the top-5 in the entire NFL, depending where you might put Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) on that QB list.

Two other signal callers on playoff-bound teams, the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa — he wasn’t cleared in time out of concussion protocol to play against Buffalo on Sunday — and knee-impaired Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) were also in that elite category or trending there before medical issues forced them to the sideline.

For the Jaguars, who surged to five consecutive season-ending wins, they now have the unmistakable look of a dangerous playoff team because Lawrence has ascended into the conversation among the league’s most impactful quarterbacks.

“It’s incredible the type of talent these guys possess,” said Christian Kirk. “It’s great to have one of them on our team. It’s going to be fun to watch.”

Chargers, Jaguars have 'two freaks'

Thirty years after quarterbacking his final game with the New York Giants, former Super Bowl MVP and current CBS studio analyst Phil Simms watches more football than he ever did in his playing days.

He’s a regular at Friday night high school games, watches college football all day Saturday, then spends Sundays analyzing NFL games for his network.

Simms started to take notice a couple months ago how the position he watches most has evolved in one particular conference.

“We were looking at how the playoff picture was shaping up and thinking about the AFC, ‘Oh, my God, what a quarterback list,’ “ said Simms. “The quarterback situation in the AFC is probably as good as it’s ever been. It’s hard to look back at a time that could match what we see in the AFC right now.”

Ironically, there was a time during Simms’ last decade with the Giants when it was just as captivating.

For much of the 1980s and ‘90s, the AFC featured four future Hall of Fame quarterbacks — John Elway (Denver Broncos), Dan Marino (Miami Dolphins), Jim Kelly (Buffalo Bills) and Warren Moon (Houston Oilers) — along with 1988 league MVP Boomer Esiason of the Cincinnati Bengals.

If you add NFC legends in the San Francisco 49ers’ combo of Joe Montana and Steve Young, the Dallas Cowboys’ Troy Aikman and Green Bay Packers’ Brett Favre, it was quite the quarterback golden age before Peyton Manning and Tom Brady came along.

While Simms admired all his contemporaries, he looks at today’s young, promising QB crop with an equal sense of awe. He’s especially excited about watching the Chargers-Jaguars matchup.

“You got two freaks Saturday night playing in Jacksonville,” said Simms, referring to Herbert and Lawrence. “Height, mobility, arm, it’s everything. Plus, you can see players look up to them.

“I don’t think Trevor is in the Justin Herbert throwing category yet, but he’s not far behind. You can argue Herbert is the best thrower-passer in the league.”

Simms isn’t trying to ignore Mahomes, Allen or Burrow, considered by many to be the top three MVP candidates in 2022. He likes all of them for different reasons.

But he’s paying special attention to Herbert and Lawrence for this reason: the winner of their matchup will almost certainly have to get past two of the other three great QBs to have any shot of reaching the Super Bowl.

In particular, the rise of Lawrence the past two months has caught Simms’ eye, believing his confidence among many things has soared to a new level.

“Trevor just turned and ripped that touchdown pass [to Kirk] last week against the Tennessee Titans,” said Simms. “It wasn’t a hard throw, but he made it look so easy. He’s just really got it going now. Confidence, lots of practice, got an ex-quarterback [in head coach Doug Pederson] designing plays for him. That’s tremendously huge.

“I can see it in Trevor’s body language. I’ve watched all his games. Everything on the sideline and on the field, he’s a different guy. I don’t care how talented you are, coaching is everything for the quarterback. How plays are called, getting in the right system. They’re pretty set down in Jacksonville.”

Cracking the AFC elite 

Back when the Jaguars went 0-5 in October, nobody put Lawrence in anything close to an elite category.

With the former Clemson star and his team struggling to close out games, Lawrence’s potential far outweighed his performance. So much has changed since then.

He’s not at the Mahomes-Allen-Burrow level yet, but the gap is closing. His 2022 numbers — 387 of 584, 4,113 yards, 25 TDs, 8 interceptions, 95.2 rating — bear out that Trevor is pulling just about even with Herbert.

Lawrence has matched or exceeded the Chargers’ quarterback in all the meaningful stat categories except total yards and completion percentage, where the Jaguars’ QB is 66.3 percent to Herbert’s 68.2 percent.

Safety Rayshawn Jenkins, who played with the Chargers during Herbert's 2020 rookie season, preferred not to divulge which quarterback he would want for the next decade, but loves the matchup.

"[Herbert] can make every throw in the book," said Jenkins. "He's going to pose problems for pretty much anybody. Both him and Trevor are good players with a lot of potential. You can flip a coin to determine which one you could have on your team and the production would probably be about the same. Two really good players. I'm excited to see what they do this coming weekend.

The Jaguars’ organization believed all along it was only a matter of time before Lawrence validated himself worthy of his 2021 No. 1 draft slot. The consensus now is he’s most certainly in the NFL top-10 quarterback category, inching closer to top-5.

While Lawrence’s record as a starter is just 12-22, he’s already faced each of top AFC quarterbacks one time and won four of those six matchups, including a 38-10 win over Herbert in Week 3. His only setbacks were a 24-21 loss to Burrow in Cincinnati last year and a 27-17 defeat against Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium in mid-November.

"When you're in this position and you're playing guys like that, that means you're playing the best teams and that's where you want to be at this time of the year," Lawrence said. "So definitely have the motivation to go out there and play well, not necessarily against those guys. . . . I'm excited for the opportunity that our team has to go play these teams that are really good teams that have great quarterbacks, too."

Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy, an NBC analyst working the Jaguars-Chargers game with Al Michaels, says there’s no denying reality: the AFC quarterback stable is loaded and Lawrence might very well rule his division the way his former Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning once did.

From 2002-10, Manning won seven AFC South titles and took his team to a wild-card berth the other two seasons. He went 41-13 in division games.

“If you have that quarterback who can lift everybody up over a long season, you’re just going to be better,” said Dungy. “A lot of these young AFC quarterbacks have done that. The AFC is going to be tough to break into for a long time, trying to get to division championships and conference championships. If you don’t have that franchise guy, boy, you’re going to have to be perfect everywhere else.

“Right now, everybody in the [AFC South] is saying to themselves, ‘Who can I get in the draft so I can go to Jacksonville and compete and win?’ Tennessee, Indy and the [Houston] Texans, they don’t have that quarterback on their roster.”

Spawning AFC quarterback rivalries 

Few quarterback duels in the NFL’s Super Bowl era had more staying power than AFC showdowns involving Brady-Manning (Brady led 11-6) or Kelly-Marino (Kelly led 14-7).

With the seven AFC playoff teams all having No. 1 quarterbacks in the 23-27 age range — Lawrence and Herbert being the two youngest — there's no telling how many times QB pairings from the AFC West (Mahomes-Herbert), AFC North (Burrow-Jackson) and AFC East (Allen-Tagovailoa) might face each other.

In 2023, Lawrence is scheduled to square off against Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson and Allen, possibly a couple of them again in the postseason.

But first, it’s Part II of Lawrence-Herbert Saturday night at TIAA Bank Field. Trevor will be making his 35^th career start and Herbert his 50th.

“It’s exciting for the game, it’s exciting for fans, the league, the whole thing to have these young quarterbacks who are, year in, year out, vying for these postseason spots, and now Trevor gets his opportunity,” said Pederson. “We’re just fortunate and blessed to have Trevor as our guy and how much he’s improved over the course of the season leading this football team.

“Really looking forward to watching him now on this type of [playoff] stage. Last week [beating Tennessee to win the AFC South] was a step for him. Obviously, this is now another step in that direction.”

Pederson, an NFL backup quarterback for 10 seasons with four different teams, isn’t all that surprised so many young AFC quarterbacks are emerging quickly as stars. Between training resources, 7-on-7 camps, pass-happy college offenses and media exposure, QBs are becoming more advanced at their craft at an earlier age.

“These guys are as prepared as the older veteran guys were years ago,” said Pederson.

Jaguars’ receiver Zay Jones grew up with Manning, Brady and Ben Roethlisberger as household names, wondering if the next generation could match them. He no longer has any reservations.

“Who else do we gravitate towards?” said Jones. “I see that coming now with Patrick [Mahomes], Joe [Burrow], Josh [Allen], Justin [Herbert] and Trevor. Those names are going to be ingrained in the minds of fans for years to come.”

Mahomes’ Chiefs have already ended Allen’s season twice in the AFC playoffs the past two years. Burrow took the Bengals to their first Super Bowl since 1988 last season by eliminating the Chiefs in an epic 27-24 overtime victory at Arrowhead.

Now Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert make their postseason debuts against each other before an expected sellout crowd of about 70,000 at TIAA Bank Field.

Soak it all in. The next decade with this AFC quarterback generation should be a blast.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540 

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Trevor Lawrence must deal with elite AFC quarterbacks for next decade