Gene Frenette: No predicting what up-down Jaguars might do at any moment

One of the go-to phrases coaches and players love to throw out there about the NFL is it’s a “week-to-week" league, an accurate reminder on the vagaries of pro football.

The Jaguars take that unpredictability to a whole new level. They’re more a half-to-half, quarter-to-quarter team, the NFL version of a chameleon that can change its look at a moment’s notice.

Outside of how quarterback Trevor Lawrence has raised his game and kept ascending the past month, Doug Pederson’s team has so far been defined by the consistency of its inconsistency.

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Just when anyone believes they’ve got the black and teal pegged, the Jaguars pull one 180 after another.

It’s been a season-long pattern, which began in Week 1 when they fell behind 14-3 at halftime to the Washington Commanders, scored 19 straight points to seize a 22-14 lead early in the fourth quarter, then promptly surrendered two Carson Wentz deep-ball touchdown passes to lose 28-22.

On both sides of the ball, they are near impossible to define. The Jaguars are a gambler’s nightmare, going 5-8 this season against the spread as only four NFL teams have a worse ATS record.

It’s all a function of the Jaguars’ erratic season-long pattern. Sometimes, they’re Jekyll. Sometimes, Hyde.

Take the polar opposite showings against the Indianapolis Colts. They blow out Indy 24-0 at home, forcing three Matt Ryan interceptions and sacking him five times. Four weeks later, Ryan is obliterating the Jaguars’ defense for 389 passing yards, three touchdowns and never getting sacked in a 34-27 Colts victory.

What transpired the past three weeks is vintage Jaguars. After overcoming a 19-10 deficit and rallying to beat the Baltimore Ravens 28-27 on a scintillating last-minute TD throw to Marvin Jones, followed by a two-point conversion pass to Zay Jones, the Jaguars and their fan base were riding high.

Naturally, they kicked that momentum to the curb the next week with a resounding thud, falling 40-14 against the Detroit Lions and seemingly killing their fading postseason hopes.

From ugly to pretty

The roller-coaster Jaguars again did the unthinkable Sunday in Nashville. They went up to the Tennessee Titans’ Nissan Stadium, their personal house of horrors, and arose from playoff extinction with another where-did-that-come-from performance.

This might have been the most stunning flipped script in Jaguars history, putting on their best show of 2022 just seven days after their ugliest one.

Scoring 29 straight points to beat the Titans 36-22 not only saved the season, it was their biggest regular-season victory since Dec. 19, 2004. That’s when Fred Taylor ran for 165 yards in the bitter cold (minus-3 wind chill) to lead a 28-25 win over the Green Bay Packers, preserving the team’s playoff hopes on its first visit to Lambeau Field.

Be honest, who thought when the Titans led 14-7 after the first quarter and Derrick Henry had bulldozed the defense for 96 rushing yards that Jacksonville would win the game?

It’s usually a death sentence for the Jaguars when Henry gets rolling early. You might as well pack up the equipment, warm up the buses for the drive to the airport, and head on home.

But the ‘22 Jaguars are not built to stay the same for very long. They zig-zag back and forth, throwing momentum away one minute and seizing it the next.

Fall behind 17-0 to the Las Vegas Raiders, then storm back for a 27-20 victory.

A fourth-and-one conversion in the New York Giants’ red zone from adding to a 17-13 lead in the fourth quarter, to getting stuffed for no gain and eventually losing 23-17.

When asked about his team’s ever-fluctuating performance levels, Pederson implied it’s the nature of a young team that is still evolving.

“I think it’s just where we are, to stay in the present, understanding that there’s going to be ebb and flow of a game,” Pederson said. “You never want to get too high or too low. Kind of stay right in the middle and make the adjustments as games go.

“Yes, we do say it’s a week-to-week league, and each game plan is a bit different, but sometimes, too, you get in the flow of the game, and you kind of stick with what works. If it doesn’t work, you need to change in a hurry and do something else and go in a different direction.”

Jaguars keep fans guessing 

No doubt, the evidence reveals the Jaguars can turn on a dime in both directions.

Frustration to exhilaration and vice versa, this team is a box of chocolates. Fans never know which one they’re going to get.

Will it be the Evan Engram that had a career-high 11 receptions for 162 yards and two TDs against Tennessee? Or the tight end who caught 10 passes for 56 yards combined in the previous four games?

On and on goes the irregularity.

Good Jaguars. Bad Jaguars.

Indifferent offense. Explosive offense.

Terrible defense. Takeaway defense.

The good news about this roller-coaster ride is Trevor has seemingly minimized his fumble-prone ways. He’s learned to not force balls into red-zone traffic, which proved costly in inexcusable losses to the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos.

It’s the recent ascension of No. 16 that gives the Jaguars a legitimate shot at erasing their two-game deficit in the AFC South.

Suddenly, stealing the division from the hated Titans is no longer a far-fetched idea. All it might require is going 2-1 in the next three games, starting with Sunday’s home matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, and maybe the January 8 regular-season finale at TIAA Bank Field against Tennessee will be an AFC South-deciding showdown.

But first, there is one important Jaguars’ matter Pederson must address: making sure Jekyll doesn’t turn back into Hyde.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Unpredictable Jacksonville Jaguars swing from bad to good in 2022