Gene Frenette: Repeat after me — Kansas will cut down the NCAA nets again

By the time the first weekend of last year’s March Madness ended, only half of my Sweet 16 picks still remained.

Then came the next wave of tournament games when I gave new meaning to the term “Bracket Buster.” Only one of my Elite Eight selections — No. 10 seed and longshot Miami — kept me from an 0-fer.

For the first time in 15 years of picking an entertainment-purposes-only bracket for the Times-Union, I pitched a Final Four shutout. None of my teams got there, and two of them (Kentucky, Iowa) embarrassingly left college basketball’s biggest stage in the first round.

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One year later, I’ve decided that my NCAA crystal ball getting shattered in a million pieces warrants a roster shakeup. Not to the point of rejecting bluebloods — after all, 74 percent of Final Four teams since 1985 have been No. 1 or No. 2 seeds — but it’s time to send some big names to an early exit.

At the risk of acting like a Kardashian, I’m publicly breaking up with my most recent hoops significant other, Gonzaga.

Yup, I’ve had it with the ‘Zags. I don’t care how much Mark Few’s team has caught fire lately by winning nine straight games and blowing out St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference tournament.

Gonzaga, you’re dead to me. The ‘Zags broke my trust after picking them each of the past two years to win it all. First, they failed to finish a perfect season by losing in the 2021 finals to Baylor, then crashed last year against Arkansas in the Sweet 16.

I’m not falling this time for those gaudy Gonzaga offensive numbers — nation-leading 87.5 points per game and 52.9 percent field goal percentage, plus third-best scoring margin of 14.6 — or the cult following of senior power forward Drew Timme.

See ya, ‘Zags. You’re exiting the NCAAs in a close second-round matchup with TCU, which beats getting pummeled later on by the likes of UCLA or Kansas.

Big Blue one-and-done again? 

Another blueblood I’m casting aside this year is Kentucky, which took a blowtorch to everybody’s bracket last year by suffering a stunning upset loss to 15th-seeded St. Peter’s. That unforgivable defeat, followed by this year’s meh season and third-place SEC finish, has put coach John Calipari’s tenure on shaky ground.

Big Blue and Calipari just lost twice in a span of a week to Vanderbilt, so the Wildcats going one-and-done again would be no surprise. I got 11th-seeded Providence, whose top scorer and rebounder is Kentucky transfer Bryce Hopkins, kicking them to the curb immediately in the East region, then making it to the Sweet 16.

As tournament history dictates, the Friars will hardly be the only team generating chaos in the NCAA opening week. The past two years, four double-digit seeds have reached the Sweet 16 and at least one team seeded 10th or worse has gotten there the past 14 tournaments.

It’s almost impossible, and certainly no fun, to have a formidable bracket without taking some chances on Sweet 16 party crashers.

Besides Providence, I’ve got No. 12 seed Charleston Cougars, the Colonial Athletic champion with a 31-3 record, and 13th-seeded Kent State (28-6) getting to the second weekend.

It’s a big ask for the Golden Flashes to knock off fourth-seeded Indiana and likely fifth-seeded Miami. But they only lost by five at top-seeded Houston and by seven at Gonzaga, so hanging tough in those environments should embolden Kent State.

Oral Roberts, a No. 12 seed, also bears watching. It faces red-hot Duke, winners of nine straight, but playing in the ACC this year isn’t the usual rigorous challenge of seasons past. I’m not convinced the Blue Devils’ bandwagon should be filling up just yet.

ORU made it to the Sweet 16 two years ago as a No. 15 seed, taking down second-seeded Ohio State and Florida along the way. The Golden Eagles could be a surprise again.

It’s been a down year for hoops in the state of Florida, leaving Miami under proven coach Jim Larranaga and upstart FAU to carry the Sunshine State banner. The Hurricanes have the easier path to make some noise since No. 1 seed Purdue is blocking FAU’s path to a potential Sweet 16.

Miami should win at least one game, but it’s hard to see the ‘Canes repeating the Elite Eight run of a year ago. FAU would add to its banner season by knocking off Memphis, which is only a 2.5-point favorite.

Who’s Final Four-bound? 

It’s a good bet the Final Four picks will come off the top two seed lines this year, though fourth-seeded UConn is a tempting selection in the fully loaded West region. Kansas, UCLA and Gonzaga are the 1-2-3 seeds there, so that’ll be unquestionably the toughest road to navigate.

Given how stacked the Big 12 was this season, it’s not out of the question it could duplicate the Big East conference feat of putting three teams in the Final Four when Villanova, Georgetown and St. John’s all made it in 1985.

Kansas, which tends to be feast-or-famine in the tournament, lost a lot of firepower off its national championship team, but has reloaded nicely under Bill Self, thanks to the phenomenal production of senior forward Jalen Wilson (22.7 ppg, 9.5 rebounds).

I like the Jayhawks and Big 12 tournament champion Texas, which humbled Kansas in the finals when Self (medical procedure) was sidelined, to have a rematch in one national semifinal.

Texas could well have the difficult task in the Midwest region of getting past stingy Houston, which has made defense its calling card under coach Kelvin Sampson. The Cougars, who reached the Final Four two years ago and the Elite Eight last season, are holding opponents to 56.5 points per game, second-best in the country.

On the opposite side of the bracket, there’s not much separation between the top teams in the South and East regions. Alabama, Arizona and Baylor are legit Final Four threats in the South, as well as Purdue and Marquette in the East. 

Despite the distraction of star player Brandon Miller continuing to play under intense scrutiny — he brought a gun to an ex-teammate who was charged with capital murder, along with the alleged shooter — Alabama has performed remarkably well since the negative spotlight began shining on the program.

The Crimson Tide avenged its only loss to Texas A&M in runaway fashion in the SEC Championship game. There’s little reason to think ‘Bama can’t continue that run and reach its first Final Four.

Purdue, which began the season unranked, is a No. 1 seed and has one of the country’s most impactful frontcourt players in 7-foot-4 Zach Edey, the Big Ten Player of the Year. However, the Boilermakers have looked far more vulnerable in the past month, lost three of four games in one stretch and were pushed heavily by 10th-seeded Penn State in the Big Ten tournament final.

I’m going with second-seeded Marquette to come out of the East. Though they haven’t won an NCAA tournament game in 10 years, the Golden Eagles (28-6) have become a national force under second-year coach Shaka Smart, winning the Big East crown and avenging all three of their league losses.

So who cuts down the nets? A dozen teams probably have a legitimate shot, but it’s hard not to go with a team from the nation’s best conference which has a nation-leading 17 Quad 1 wins.

That would be defending champion Kansas, a team I predicted would lose to Iowa last year in the Sweet 16. That forecast was the equivalent of a brick, so think of this as a makeup call.

College basketball hasn’t had a repeat champion since Florida in 2006 and ‘07. My guess is Kansas and Self won’t miss a chance to be part of history.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540  

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Gene Frenette picks Kansas to win NCAA Tournament, repeat as national champs