Gene Frenette: Jaguars' winnable games in 2022, Leftwich diplomacy, Dunand's big MLB moment

Even with a schedule that includes their team facing the loaded-for-bear AFC West, the Jaguars’ fan base has good reason to feel upbeat about the 2022 season.

It goes beyond quarterback Trevor Lawrence getting a fresh start with what looks like a more competent organization under the leadership of Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson.

Better yet, the Jaguars have also put enough talent around No. 16 to do something they’ve accomplished only three times in franchise history: win at least four more games than the previous season.

A minimum record of 7-10 isn’t exactly the definition of a high bar. But considering the Jaguars have an NFL-worst record of 44-120 the past decade, it feels both realistic and doable for a roster that finally has some respectable depth without a ton of holes across the board, albeit a true No. 1 receiver would be nice.

Gene's previous three columns:

Just the beginning: Welcome to NIL reality, where colleges knew chaos was part of deal

Taking care of Mom: Mom's calm after Hurricane Sandy kept NFL dream alive for Jaguars' Foley Fatukasi

Shared responsibility: Khan deserves as much blame as Meyer, SEC dominance, NFL draft nuggets

Keep in mind that while the Jaguars get to reboot with some 20 new players on the roster in Week 1, there’s still others carrying scar tissue from a 17-game road losing streak (13 against AFC South opponents) into the season.

Determining the most winnable games was based mostly on the opponent’s strength and matchups, but also timing of the schedule, presuming the Jaguars will improve as the season goes along.

So now that the NFL has released its 2022 schedule, here are my seven most winnable Jaguars’ games:

Houston at Jaguars, 1 p.m., Sunday Oct. 9: The caveat here, of course, is this also looked like the most winnable game last year when the Texans didn’t have Deshaun Watson, then also in 2019 when they were riding all that momentum heading into London, and the year before that until Blake Bortles’ two fumbles in a 20-7 loss signaled the beginning of the end for his Jacksonville tenure.

Eight consecutive losses to the Texans and dropping 14 of the last 16 just doesn’t seem possible. It’s an annoying ball-and-chain this franchise has been carrying around for too long. If the Jaguars and Lawrence want to be taken seriously, they simply can’t get beat again by quarterback Davis Mills, especially at home. However, coming off back-to-back road trips to Los Angeles and Philadelphia won’t make this any easier.

Indianapolis at Jaguars, 1 p.m., Sunday Sept. 18: Once Peyton Manning high-tailed it for Denver late in his career, the Jaguars have at least had pockets of success against the team that once dominated them. Despite six losing seasons the last seven years, the Jaguars are 8-6 against the Colts and haven’t been swept by Indy since 2014. Now with Indy acquiring quarterback Matt Ryan (4-0 vs. Jaguars) to replace Carson Wentz, this game does get tougher.

No doubt, the Colts will have the motivational factor of avenging last year’s season-ending loss that cost them a playoff berth. However, I think what should be a much-improved Jaguars’ defense, they find a way to keep running back Jonathan Taylor in check to salvage a series split. Being the home opener should energize the Jaguars’ fan base. It's also their one opportunity to take advantage of the September heat.

Jaguars at Detroit, 1 p.m., Sunday Dec. 4: This one has a lot of intrigue because it’s the first game featuring No. 1 overall draft pick Travon Walker, going against the rookie pass-rusher the Jaguars didn’t select in Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson, the No. 2 selection.

Don’t think of this as a gimme putt just because the Lions went 3-13-1 last year. Detroit might have been the NFL’s unluckiest team, losing five games by a field goal or less. But they did allow more points (27.5 ppg) than anybody except the Jets.

New York Giants at Jaguars, 1 p.m., Sunday October 23: The G-Men don’t have a lot of momentum going for them, having only made one playoff appearance in the last decade and now on their fourth head coach (Brian Daboll) since 2017. With quarterback Daniel Jones in his third season as the full-time starter — he missed the last five games last year with a neck injury — the Giants in 2021 featured an offense every bit as bad as the Jaguars.

This is an ideal home matchup against an opponent that lost seven games by at least 14 points, including four with Jones under center. It’d be a bad look for the Giants to get their first win at TIAA Bank Field.

Jaguars at New York Jets, 8:15 p.m., Thursday Dec. 22: There was no excuse for the Jaguars not winning this road game last year. Despite having first-and-goal at the Jets’ 5 with 32 seconds left against one of the NFL’s worst defenses, they never found the end zone and lost 26-21, thanks to some play-calling confusion and lack of time awareness. Lawrence also missed another TD opportunity on first-and-goal from the 4. It’s hard to imagine him not cashing in on those chances this season.

The Jets are in a similar rebuild as the Jaguars and, on paper, had one of the best drafts with first-round picks in CB Ahmad Gardner, receiver Garrett Wilson and Florida State pass-rusher Jermaine Johnson. I just don’t see Lawrence losing another head-to-head matchup with QB Zach Wilson.

Jaguars at Washington, 1 p.m., Sunday Sept. 11: When Pederson coached in Philly, his Eagles won three of their last four games at FedEx Field. Now the Commanders are trying to rebound from five consecutive losing seasons with Wentz as their likely starting quarterback.

It doesn’t matter that the Jaguars have never won a game at Washington (0-3), but one concern is it’s the season opener with a retooled Jaguars’ roster. Still, it’s a decent matchup against an organization that has had more than its share of dysfunction with owner Dan Snyder in charge. The Jaguars might as well get that 16-game losing streak to NFC teams over early.

Jaguars at Houston, 1 p.m., Sunday Jan. 1, 2022: No matter how suspect the Texans look on paper, this is an uneasy call. There’s a reason during the Jaguars’ eight-game losing streak to Houston that the average victory margin is 12.7 points, and it’s not just the Texans having Watson at quarterback for most of those matchups.

For whatever reason, the Jaguars tend to underperform against Houston, having lost their last seven games at NRG Stadium played in December or later. This one is also dicey.

Here are my next best bets for a Jaguars victory: Baltimore at home, Nov. 27, which comes after a bye week; Tennessee at home, January 7/8, which could have minimal stakes in Week 18; at Philadelphia, Oct. 2, which is a Pederson homecoming against his former employer.

Smart play by Leftwich

When Byron Leftwich was given the first opportunity to speak publicly this week about not being named the Jaguars’ head coach, which some erroneously reported he was getting, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator was careful not to say anything that might sabotage a future promotion.

Leftwich, the former Jags quarterback, played it neutral and controversy-free, saying to the Tampa Bay Times: “I really don’t have no thoughts about the process. I was the coordinator here, and I’m still the coordinator here, so that’s really how I view it. I know there was a lot said, a lot put out there. Obviously, that didn’t work out.”

The bottom line is Leftwich was a viable candidate, many of whom thought might get the job. He lost out to a Super Bowl-winning coach in Pederson who had a better resume. Not much to complain about there.

Welcome to big leagues, Joe

Being stuck in the nine hole for his Miami Marlins big-league debut was no problem last week for Jumbo Shrimp infielder Joe Dunand. He belted a 1-1 change-up from San Diego Padres left-hander Sean Manaea into the left field seats at Petco Park in his first MLB at-bat. He went 2-for-4 in the Marlins’ 8-0 victory.

Dunand, nephew of Alex Rodriguez, needed 49 at-bats before hitting his first home run with the Jumbo Shrimp back in 2018. This year, the 26-year-old Dunand hit his first homer of the season for the Shrimp in his 37th at-bat. Two days after Dunand's big MLB moment, he was optioned back to Jacksonville.

Passing on Triple Crown?

What a compelling story that 80-1 long shot Rich Strike came from far behind to catch co-favorites Epicenter and Zandon to win the Kentucky Derby, despite only getting into the race the day before when another horse was a scratch. However, that euphoria diminished a tad when Rich Strike owner Rick Dawson decided not to run his horse in next week’s Preakness, feeling it needed more recovery time to run in the Belmont Stakes on June 11.

That deserves a big neigh from Rich Strike as the horse now misses the only opportunity to win this year’s Triple Crown. It’s a good thing Dawson didn’t own Secretariat.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540

Gene Frenette Sports columnist at Florida Times-Union, follow him on Twitter @genefrenette

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jacksonville Jaguars' most winnable games, plus schedule nuggets, Joe Dunand