Georgia drives record midterm spending even higher
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This midterm cycle has been the most expensive ever, driven largely by megadonors. And experts say the Georgia Senate runoff is sure to push the record even higher.
“This was an astronomically expensive election,” said Joanna Zdanys, a senior counsel with the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program focusing on money in politics. “The figures were just eye-popping.”
Why it matters: Democrats have already secured a majority in the Senate, so it’s not exactly the same situation as two years ago when control of the chamber hinged on late contests in the Peach State. Still, both sides are signaling robust spending leading up to the Dec. 6 runoff.
“It tends to be the trend of late that very competitive elections tend to attract a lot of big spending,” Zdanys said. “Even with control not in question, there will be a lot of focus on the election.”
For Democrats, a win from Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) would give them some breathing room after they’ve spent the past two years unable to lose a single vote and still pass their agenda. Republicans are hoping an upset by Herschel Walker will provided some desperately needed relief after a disappointing midterm — while forcing Democrats to keep their caucus together.
Where things stand: Federal candidates and political committees are on track to spend roughly $9 billion total on the 2022 midterm election cycle — well ahead of the inflation-adjusted 2018 midterm record of $7.1 billion, according to OpenSecrets, a nonprofit that tracks campaign and lobbying spending.
“We’re seeing record-breaking totals spent on elections up and down the ballot,” Sheila Krumholz, OpenSecrets executive director said in a recent analysis.
And Georgia will play no small role in that total expanding further.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC linked to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), has pledged $14.2 million to boost Walker in the runoff, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has committed to $700,000, according to NBC News.
On the Democratic side, Senate Democrats’ fundraising arm is investing $7 million for field organizing efforts backing Warnock, while Georgia Honor, a group tied to the Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC, also is pouring millions into the runoff effort with an initial week ad run at $4 million, first reported by CNN.
“Senate Republicans are getting nasty, petty and viciously personal – everything we could ask for heading into the Georgia runoff. For our part, Senate Democrats are unified and focused on re-electing Rev. Warnock,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman David Bergstein said in a statement.
Amid the runoff, Senate Republicans are grappling with broader tensions within the conference, which spilled out into the open on Tuesday as NRSC chair Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) launched an unsuccessful challenge to McConnell for GOP leader.
Curt Anderson, a top adviser to Scott, called out the super PAC allied with Senate GOP leadership, questioning on Twitter if they had “given up” in Georgia.
Senate Leadership Fund CEO Steven Law shot back by knocking the NRSC’s spending, adding, “But don’t worry little buddy—we’re used to covering for you.”
Georgia déjà vu: Warnock won his seat in the Senate in a special election two years ago — and Republicans again find themselves in the uncomfortable position of trying to eke out a win in a state that had previously elected back-to-back Republicans.
Warnock received about 35,000 more votes than Walker in the election last week, but neither broke the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff. As of the most recent campaign finance disclosures, Warnock had raised more than $98 million for his campaign and spent $75 million. Walker’s raised $37 million and spent $32 million.
Welcome to NotedDC, we’re Elizabeth Crisp and Amee LaTour. In today’s issue: The final days of proxy voting in the House, and the other GOP leadership battle. Plus: Trump’s muted presidential launch.
Proxy voting on its deathbed
Proxy voting is all but dead in the House after an historic two-and-a-half-year run.
Republican leaders, who appear to be on track to take control of the chamber, have no plans to extend the novel absentee voting process that House Democrats adopted early in the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.
“We will immediately reopen the Capitol and end the Democrat proxy voting and remote work schemes that have inflicted untold damage to this institution,” House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) wrote in a recent letter to colleagues announcing his bid for Speaker.
The caucus voted overwhelmingly on Tuesday in favor of nominating McCarthy as their pick for Speaker. He still needs a majority vote in the full House when the new term starts before anything’s official.
A spokesman confirmed to NotedDC that McCarthy is sticking to his plans to abolish proxy voting, even as Republicans are heading toward a narrow majority that would allow few defectors from the party’s priorities and few absentees.
Background: McCarthy has remained firm in his position against the procedure, which allows a member who cannot be in attendance to designate another member to cast a vote for them.
McCarthy and other Republicans filed a lawsuit to stop proxy voting shortly after the Democratic majority approved the plan in May 2020. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) called it a “frivolous lawsuit” and a “sad stunt.”
The suit faced several legal hurdles before the Supreme Court earlier this year refused to take it up. Seventy percent of the original signers of the lawsuit eventually ditched the position as they used the proxy system themselves the past two years.
House GOP Whip Steve Scalise, a Louisiana Republican who caucus members unanimously this week agreed to move up to the majority leader role, also has listed ending the absentee process among his priorities — doubling down on the GOP’s steadfast position against it.
“We must immediately roll back the many harmful procedures Democrat leadership has put in place. This starts by eliminating the absentee, stay-at-home Congress,” he wrote in a letter to colleagues.
Numbers tell the story: According to an analysis from the nonprofit Brookings Institution, about 80 percent of all members had used the proxy option through December 2021.
Why Trump’s announcement wasn’t like his first two
In June 2015, Donald Trump unveiled his first bid ever for elected office at Trump Tower in New York, announcing he was running for president. Four years later, he launched his reelection campaign before a booming audience at a rally in Florida.
On Tuesday, things were far more muted.
The former president’s announcement that he’s running for president for a third time in 2024 was met with a collective “meh” by most except his most ardent supporters.
Two networks, CNN and Fox News, carried the announcement live, though eventually cut away amid the hour-long speech. MSNBC did not air it live.
The conservative magazine National Review posted an editorial immediately following Trump’s speech saying simply “No” to another Trump White House bid.
Perhaps the most brutal media blow came on the front page of the once Trump-friendly New York Post: “Florida man makes announcement. Page 26.”
Tuesday’s speech was hardly the spectacle of the gilded escalator ride that launched Trump’s 2016 run.
“The crowd at Mar-a-Lago is slow to clap, and the clapping is labored, as if they are not paying attention and it takes them a second to realize they ought to be clapping,” tweeted New York Magazine’s top Trump-watcher Olivia Nuzzi.
Trump leaned on familiar themes in his speech to a filled ballroom at his Florida estate: He accused President Biden of falling asleep on the world stage, called for building a wall on the southern border and repeated his mantra to “drain the swamp” — despite the four years that he held in office being marked by questionable ethics decisions among members of his administration.
Several observers noted that the location for the speech, Mar-a-Lago, is where Trump was accused of holding confidential documents from his time in office, prompting an investigation from federal authorities.
ABC’s Olivia Rubin shared video of what she said were people trying to leave the event, only to be blocked by security.
TAKEAWAYS FROM THE SPEECH
– Trump seemed to confuse Reconstruction (the post-Civil War effort to reintegrate the South) and the Civil War itself. “I call Reconstruction the Civil War—that’s what I call it,” he said while discussing the border wall.
– Eric Trump was the only one of the former president’s four adult children to attend the event. Ivanka Trump, the most recognizable and a top aide when Trump was in the White House, posted on Instagram that she has no plans to take part in politics going forward.
– Trump repeatedly invoked a “victim” mentality, especially when blasting investigations against him. “I’m a victim. I will tell you,” he said. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who is weighing a 2024 bid himself, took a shot at Trump on Twitter Wednesday without mentioning his former boss by name, saying the GOP needs a leader who doesn’t claim “victimhood.”
– The expected praise: Trump allies like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R), former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and others made the rounds praising the speech and the more subdued Trump.
“If President Trump continues this tone and delivers this message on a consistent basis, he will be hard to beat,” Graham declared after the speech. “His speech tonight, contrasting his policies and results against the Biden administration, charts a winning path for him in the primaries and general election.”
Not so much: Trump is quickly shedding some of his top supporters. Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, who was one of Trump’s remaining megadonors, said in a statement to Axios this week that he won’t get behind a 2024 run from the former president.
Several people who once backed Trump are increasingly eyeing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a more favorable alternative.
Vote offers glimpse into House GOP divisions
Tuesday’s House GOP leadership elections, particularly for Speaker and whip, give us a peek into the party’s divisions — which it can’t afford much of, given a narrower-than-expected majority next year.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) won the GOP conference vote for House speaker on Tuesday 188-31, soaring past former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.). Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) ran unopposed for majority leader while Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) was reelected to another term as conference chair.
While McCarthy easily won the GOP’s nod for Speaker, as our colleague Emily Brooks wrote, “in the eyes of Biggs and his supporters, the goal was merely to demonstrate that McCarthy lacks the support to seize the gavel when the full House meets to choose the Speaker early next year” when he’ll need 218 votes, “assuming a fully sworn-in House.”
Rep. Matt Gaetz (Fla.) said on Monday he won’t support McCarthy in January.
This thing isn’t in the bag.
WHERE THINGS GO FROM HERE
Matthew Green, politics professor at Catholic University, told NotedDC in an email that the Speaker election “suggests that the next Congress will be a difficult environment for the House Republican Party.”
“If that many party members are willing to back another nominee for Speaker, it means that McCarthy already has his work cut out for him in building majorities, not only to get elected Speaker but to get bills passed in what will be a very narrow margin between the two parties,” Green said.
The House was set to vote Wednesday on part of its rules package, the outcome of which could impact some Republicans’ willingness to back McCarthy in January. Freedom Caucus members have demanded several rules changes since summer.
WORTH NOTING
This all might be a bit of déjà vu for McCarthy. As NBC News summarized: “When [McCarthy] ran to succeed [John] Boehner as speaker in 2015, Freedom Caucus members tried to get him to jump through similar hoops to win their votes.” That year, “When he balked at their demands, Freedom Caucus members drafted GOP Rep. Dan Webster … giving conservatives an alternative to rally behind.” McCarthy withdrew and Republicans eventually put forward Paul Ryan as a consensus candidate.
Former Republican-turned-Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash (Mich.) would like to be considered for the role of Speaker (while it’s traditionally a sitting member of Congress, they don’t actually have to be). Amash tweeted Tuesday, “If neither party has the votes to elect a speaker of the House, I’d be happy to serve as a nonpartisan speaker who ensures the institution works as it’s supposed to—a place where all ideas are welcome and where outcomes are discovered through the process, not dictated from above.”
The majority whip election was much tighter than the Speaker race. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) ended up on top after two rounds of voting. In the first round, Jim Banks (R-Ind.) got 82 votes to Emmer’s 71 and Drew Ferguson’s (Ga.) 71. With Ferguson eliminated, Emmer ended with 115 to Banks’ 106. Emmer’s prospects were uncertain after Republicans gained fewer House seats than many anticipated this cycle (with the exact number still to be determined), given Emmer’s current position as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
McConnell swats back leadership challenge
Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) has served as Republican leader (both minority and majority) in the Senate since 2007. On Wednesday, he faced a challenge for the position for the first time. McConnell defeated Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.) 37-10, with one senator voting present.
Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and McConnell have butted heads throughout the year on several issues, including whether to put forth an agenda or frame the midterms more as a referendum on Democrats. They also publicly disagreed on some proposals in the agenda Scott ultimately released, including sunsetting all federal legislation after five years.
Scott referred to that conflict in announcing his leadership challenge: “I believe it’s time for the Senate Republican Conference to be far more bold and resolute that we have been in the past. We must start saying what we are for, not just what we are against.”
McConnell said Tuesday, “Every one of our candidates knew what they were for, expressed it quite clearly. … We underperformed among independents and moderates because their impression of many of the people in our party in leadership roles is that they’re involved in chaos, negativity, excessive attacks[.]”
See more on the results here.
Laura Blessing, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Government Affairs Institute, told Newsweek before Scott’s announced challenge, “The vote will be uneventful but what’s really interesting will be what’s behind the scenes.”
According to Newsweek, Blessing “not[ed] that how conservative organizations and movements position themselves in relation to Trump and McConnell should be watched moving forward.”
Trump said the night before the midterms in an interview with Fox News Digital, “I think Rick Scott is a likely candidate — he hates the guy [McConnell].” Trump said Scott was “tough” and would “have a lot of support.”
About McConnell, Trump said, “I think we’ll probably have to live with him for two years. … And if I run and I win, I will say don’t send me any legislation if he’s the leader, and he’ll be out in two minutes.”
The leadership vote was done by secret ballot. There was more support among the caucus for delaying the leadership elections than those against McConnell; CNN reported that a source familiar said 16 senators had voted to delay the leadership elections until after Georgia’s Senate runoff on Dec. 6 at a meeting.
The Hill’s Alexander Bolton provides details on the heated closed-door meeting where Scott announced his challenge to McConnell, including reactions from several GOP senators.
Memory Lane: Check out this C-SPAN video of McConnell introducing the new Senate leadership team on Nov. 15, 2006, after he was first selected minority leader.
BRIEFLY
President Biden met with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday at the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, where the two leaders recommitted their support for Ukraine.
During Donald Trump’s 2024 bid announcement Tuesday night, President Biden released a video on Twitter saying that “Trump failed America.” More on other Democrats’ responses here.
Journalists and media companies are fretting over how to maintain credibility, verify information put out on Twitter and connect with audiences on a platform that appears to be changing by the day under new owner Elon Musk.
Is movie-going back? Recent blockbusters “Wakanda Forever” and “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” have signaled a rebound after tickets plummeted and theaters closed at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
LOBBY WORLD
The Hill’s Karl Evers-Hillstrom has a weekly roundup of news from the lobbying world (and you can send NotedDC your professional updates too!).
Here are some highlights from this week:
The Sierra Club has tapped former NAACP president Ben Jealous to be its next executive director.
Zack Laven, a former top aide to Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), has joined Fulcrum Public Affairs as a vice president. Laven’s the firm’s first Republican hire.
Maggie Woodin, a former aide to outgoing Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.), has joined the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to manage federal affairs for the Great Lakes region.
Check out more moves here and send us your updates!
GEN Z EVENT
How has the COVID-19 pandemic shaped the outlook of Generation Z?
“The Gen Z Historian” Kahlil Greene, author and pollster John Della Volpe, White House Director of Digital Strategy Rob Flaherty, Zfluence founder Ava McDonald and more join The Hill to examine the experience of America’s youth, where their common ground lies, and their impact on the future.
Wednesday, Nov. 16 at 5 p.m. ET / LIVE IN D.C. AND STREAMING NATIONALLY
QUOTABLE
About 40 minutes into Trump’s 2024 announcement speech, White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates tweeted a link to a White House page touting energy efforts, writing, “Bored? A lot of people are. Read about [Biden]’s high energy record!”
NUMBER TO KNOW
17,243
Number of votes retiring Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) has cast since joining the upper chamber in 1975. The late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.), who died in 2010, is the only person with a higher record at 18,689, according to Senate records.
Leahy, 82, opted not to seek reelection. Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) officially won election to replace Leahy during the midterm election last week. Leahy will surely get a few more votes in the lame-duck session before his term ends, so his record will likely tick up some before the end of the year.
One more thing: Finally open
It’s here… The long-awaited Silver Line expansion on the DC Metro, which now runs to Dulles International Airport, opened to much fanfare this week, with VIP guests including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg on hand for the celebration.
“The Silver Line extension is going to make life more affordable, give people better access to jobs throughout the region, reduce the time that drivers sit in traffic on our roads, and provide a level of convenience getting to Dulles Airport that has been a long time coming,” Buttigieg said.
While you’re still more likely to see lawmakers trekking through Reagan National Airport as they commute to the District, the Silver Line milestone comes as Dulles celebrates its 60th anniversary this week.
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