Glenn Youngkin won while keeping away from Donald Trump. Will other Republicans do the same?

WASHINGTON – Given his come-from-behind victory in a Democratic-leaning state, Virginia Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin is being touted as a new model for Republican candidates in the Donald Trump post-presidential era.

Or at least for some Republicans in some states.

Political experts said they expect many GOP candidates in closely contested states to follow Youngkin's footsteps in 2022 by embracing Trump's base and talking up his right-leaning populist issues while keeping a noticeable distance from the volatile former president himself.

Republicans who want the party to break free of Trump's grip said Youngkin's victory over Democrat Terry McAuliffe was a sign the GOP can find a more united footing.

"Do I feel more optimistic about 2022? Hell, yeah," GOP consultant Jean Card, a speechwriter in President George W. Bush's administration, told USA TODAY.

"Because of the Youngkin model, I know now that my party can run a race, and win without making out with Donald Trump. Hallelujah!"

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But that strategy is one that will likely be used in closely divided purple states or confined to more Democratic-leaning congressional districts. In some cases, Republicans will be only too happy to run as Trump acolytes.

Full-on Donald Trump

Trump and his supporters, meanwhile, are taking credit for Youngkin's win as a sign that the "Make America Great Again" crowd is a lasting cornerstone of the GOP and are emphasizing that other Republicans should be full-on Trump in the 2022 elections.

That strategy, some Republicans said, risks more party disunity and would undercut their chances of winning control of Congress and big state governor's offices.

Strongly Republican states and congressional districts "are going to have fringe candidates who dominate the primaries," said conservative political analyst Rick Tyler. "And that is going to continue to complicate messaging for the Republicans until and unless the party imposes discipline top to bottom."

At the very least, Tyler said, Youngkin's victory in Virginia proves that "a Trump-less GOP is how you win in a blue state."

What Glenn Youngkin did right

Youngkin, a former chief executive of the private equity firm the Carlyle Group running in his first political race, leaned into parents' anger over classroom curricula during the final weeks of the campaign.

The 54-year-old businessman and his team zeroed in on September debate comments by McAuliffe, who said, "I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach."

Throughout the campaign, Youngkin did not criticize Trump but embraced Trumpian themes like tax cuts and opposition to COVID-19 mask and vaccination mandates and critical race theory. He never appeared with Trump in person.

Critical race theory is a framework that factors historical racial discrimination into discussions of race, beyond the decisions of any particular individual. The theory is not part of the K-12 curriculum in Virginia public schools.

But Card said Youngkin "nailed it" with conservative-leaning voters in the suburbs. She said Youngkin's warmer personality also helped draw white women in those areas back to the GOP.

Exit polling by NBC News, for instance, showed white women in Virginia without a college degree swung heavily to Youngkin by roughly 20 percentage points more compared with Trump the year before.

White women with a college education, however, favored McAuliffe over Youngkin 62% to 38%, similar to their voting pattern in 2020 when they supported Biden over Trump 58% to 41% in 2020.

"Youngkin really threaded that needle of showing that it's OK to embrace Trump's policies and it's OK to accept Trump's endorsements, but it's also OK to not embrace him," Card said.

Katie Paris, founder of Red, Wine and Blue, a liberal-leaning grassroots group led by suburban women, said Democrats underestimated how Virginia's pursuit of other equity policies in education galvanized conservative suburban parents.

"Saying that critical race theory is a boogeyman and brushing it off or largely ignoring it does not take the steering wheel back," she said. "It left the narrative in Youngkin's hands. We have to play offense for our values, and I think Democrats miscalculated this one."

Trump did phone in to at least two Republican rallies in Virginia, though Youngkin himself did not attend either event.

While keeping his distance from Youngkin, Trump repeatedly trumpeted his support for Youngkin in interviews and written statements – and quickly took credit for his victory.

Mocking the Democratic candidate for constantly comparing Youngkin to him, Trump said that "all McAuliffe did was talk Trump, Trump, Trump and he lost! What does that tell you, Fake News? I guess people running for office as Democrats won’t be doing that too much longer."

Donald Trump in 2022

One way or another, Trump will be involved in future elections.

The former president already has endorsed a slew of like-minded allies who are challenging establishment Republican officeholders in GOP primaries next year.

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Trump's target list includes some of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach him over the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, certain to be a major issue throughout the 2022 campaign.

If Trump-endorsed candidates – such as U.S. Senate contender Ted Budd in North Carolina – win their primaries, they will not be shunning Trump a la Youngkin during fall campaigns against Democrats.

If Trump targets, such as Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, survive primaries, they may well be tempted to follow Youngkin's lead.

Along the way, Trump and his aides have all but issued warnings to GOP candidates: Support me publicly, or else.

In the wake of the Virginia election, the Trump team also publicized a statement from conservative Virginia talk show host John Fredericks: "If there were no Trump in this election, there would be no Glenn Youngkin."

'Not conspiracy theories and lies'

Some Republicans begged to differ.

They said too close an association with Trump will hurt Republicans in competitive states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., who is being challenged by a Trump supporter in a Republican primary in Wyoming, congratulated Youngkin by citing the non-Trump aspects of his campaign.

"Winning back suburban moms and independent voters, he demonstrated Republican values and competence, not conspiracy theories and lies, win elections," Cheney tweeted.

It might not be that easy for some Republicans to shun Trump the way Youngkin did, analysts said. For one thing, the wealthy businessman financed his own campaign; he could afford to ignore Trump.

'Voters spoke loudly and clearly in Virginia'

Other Republicans will be only too happy to embrace Trump.

During a congressional hearing Wednesday, House Republicans who support Trump cited the Virginia election as proof of intense voter opposition to vaccine mandates and "woke" school board policies

House Republican Conference Chair Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., sought to tiefederal law enforcement officials to a controversial Oct. 4 memorandum by Attorney General Merrick Garland asking federal authorities to investigate potential increases in threats of violence “against school administrators, board members, teachers, and staff” due to such frustrations.

“The American people are deeply concerned about the politicization of domestic terrorism,” Stefanik said, later adding: "And obviously, voters spoke loudly and clearly in Virginia last night” to reject such investigations.

Despite the loss in Virginia, Democrats are expected to continue to make Trump an issue in next year's elections – or at least the Trump agenda.

Paris, the liberal suburban organizer, said Virginia will be the GOP blueprint in 2022, but Democrats and progressive activists continue to call them out for their continued ties to Trump.

"I mean, it's one thing to say, 'Oh, he's just like Trump,' but you have to show that he is as well," Paris said. "And if you are skirting the issues that reveal their extremist extremism, it's impossible to do that."

"Trump or not, Republicans are going to have to answer for their unified opposition to tax cuts for middle-class families while protecting their billions in tax giveaways to the wealthiest and corporations," said Ammar Moussa, spokesperson for the Democratic National Committee.

Some Republicans said GOP candidates would be wise to follow Youngkin's issues-oriented approach without the Trump-like histrionics.

"Make America boring again," said Republican strategist Scott Jennings. "Run on an actual issue platform. It seems to work!"

Contributing: Josh Meyer

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Virginia governor's race: Youngkin won while keeping away from Trump