Global conflict over Taiwan ‘may be triggered at any time’, warns Chinese state media

Chinese state media has warned that “war is real” and it “may be triggered at any time” as China’s relationship with Taiwan worsened and military tension escalated to its worst in more than 40 years.

The editorial in state-backed Global Times newspaper came as China scaled up its military intimidation of the island nation.

On Monday, a record 56 Chinese warplanes intruded Taiwan’s airspace, prompting Taipei’s defence ministry to scramble its air defence system and issue warnings. The show of force marked the fourth straight day of intrusions by the People Liberation Army’s aircraft, with about 148 Chinese planes encroaching the island’s airspace.

Taiwan has described these as “irresponsible provocative actions,” while the US, Japan and Australia urged China to end its military threats.

The editorial objected to the US and Japan’s support to Taiwan and termed it “strategic collusion” that is becoming more “audacious.”

It also warned Taiwan and its supporters not to “continue to play with fire” as “the Chinese mainland’s preparation to use force against Taiwan secessionist forces is much stronger than ever before”.

“The strategic collusion between the US and Japan and the DPP [Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan] authorities is becoming more audacious, and the situation across the Taiwan Straits has almost lost any room for manoeuver teetering on the edge of a face-off, creating a sense of urgency that the war may be triggered at any time,” the editorial said.

Taiwan said on Monday that China breached its airspace by flowing 56 jets, including nuclear-capable bombers, in a single day. Before that, the People’s Liberation Army sent 38 warplanes into the area on China’s National Day on Friday and 39 aircrafts on Saturday, followed by 16 on Sunday.

Hours before the huge incursions, it had been reported that the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth entered the disputed South China Sea, which China claims to be its territorial waters. This indicated that the British flagship’s joint exercise with the US carriers, USS Carl Vinson and USS Ronald Reagan, and Japan’s helicopter destroyer JS Ise is perhaps another precipitator of China’s “bullying” of Taiwan, according to experts.

The joint exercise with warships from six different countries continued over the weekend amid heightened tensions between Taiwan and China.

In a scathing rebuke, the editorial said that China would not allow the island to act as an “outpost of the US’ strategic containment against China” and it will not be allowed to secede from China under any circumstances.

Another harshly-worded editorial in the Global Times said Taiwan’s “fate is bound to be a catastrophe when they attempt to separate Taiwan from the China”. It also warned that Taiwan was moving towards its “tomb” by colluding with external forces. This editorial was in response to an article by Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen in Foreign Affairs magazine, where she warned of “catastrophic consequences” for peace in Asia if Taipei falls to Beijing.

On Wednesday, Taiwan’s defence minister said that China has the ability to mount a “full scale” invasion of Taiwan by 2025. Chiu Kuo-cheng said the situation between China and Taiwan was “the most serious” in more than 40 years, and added that there was a risk of a “misfire” across the sensitive Taiwan Strait.

He said a parliamentary committee is reviewing a special military spending of T$240bn (£6.3bn) for weapons made in Taiwan such as missiles and warships.

Though the US and Australia do not have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, they issued statements lending support to Taiwan against China’s latest show of force.

Australia said it was “concerned by China’s increased air incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone over the past week” and warned against “the threat or use of force.”

The US described the incursions as provocative and destabilising. “Our commitment to Taiwan is rock-solid and contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region,” it said.

But China criticised the US’ statement for “inflating” Taiwanese separatist forces and asked Washington to stop supporting such actions.

Following China’s statement, Joe Biden on Tuesday said that he spoke with Chinese president Xi Jinping on phone about Taiwan. “I’ve spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree ... we’ll abide by the Taiwan agreement,” he said. “We made it clear that I don’t think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement.”

Mr Biden was said to be referring to Washington’s long-standing “one-China policy”, under which it officially recognises Beijing rather than Taipei, and the Taiwan Relations Act.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan will hold talks with China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Switzerland later on Wednesday amid heightened tensions between the world’s two largest economies over a range of issues, including Taiwan. It would be Mr Sullivan’s first face-to-face meeting with Mr Yang since the two got into verbal exchanges in Alaska in March.

A group of French senators, including a former defence minister, is to visit Taiwan this week, despite pressure from China. The delegation will be led by Alain Richard, head of the French Senate’s Taiwan Friendship Group, Taiwan’s foreign ministry spokesperson Joanne Ou.

(With additional reporting from agencies)

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