Global coronavirus death toll is double official estimates, analysis suggests
Across the globe roughly 6.9 million people have died from Covid-19, according to a new analysis which suggests the death toll is twice as high as official reports.
The report, published by scientists at the University of Washington’s renowned Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), found that fatalities are vastly undercounted worldwide due to patchy testing and overwhelmed health systems.
In India, for instance, the official death count is 234,083, but the IHME analysis puts this figure at 654,395.
The country is in the depths of a devastating coronavirus crisis, with makeshift pyres set up on wastelands and crematoriums usually used for dogs being repurposed to cope with the flood of coronavirus fatalities.
As the India’s escalating epidemic shows few signs of slowing, the IHME forecasts estimate that 1.4 million people will have died in the vast nation by September – when the global death toll will near 9.4 million. Currently, just over 3.3 million fatalities have been recorded globally.
“Given what’s unfolding in India right now, given our expectation of continued deaths, Covid is going to rival Spanish flu at the global level in terms of the count, likely, before we see the end of this epidemic,” the IHME’s director, Prof Christopher Murray, told reporters in a briefing.
“Understanding the true number of Covid-19 deaths not only helps us appreciate the magnitude of this global crisis, but also provides valuable information to policymakers developing response and recovery plans,” he added.
Almost every country globally has undercounted fatalities, but the IHME analysis found the countries with the largest epidemics to date saw the most unreported deaths between March 2020 and May 2021.
In the United States, the report estimates deaths have reached 905,289 – compared to the official toll of 580,063 – while IHME put Brazil’s fatality count at 595,903, far higher than the 408,680 fatalities documented.
But other nations that have witnessed far smaller epidemics also saw a large increase in the death rate when accounting for unreported deaths, the report suggested.
Egypt’s estimated death toll is more than 13 times higher than the official toll - 170,041 compared to 13,714 - while the team put Russia’s tally at 593,610. According to government records, 110,735 people have died from the coronavirus in the country.
And in Kazakhstan fatalities are 14 times higher than officially reported - 81,696, rather than 5,620.
It is not yet clear what accounts for the difference between official Covid deaths and excess mortality during the pandemic in some of these countries, but the team hope their report will trigger a reassessment of coronavirus records worldwide.
“Many countries have devoted exceptional effort to measuring the pandemic’s toll, but our analysis shows how difficult it is to accurately track a new and rapidly spreading infectious disease,” Prof Murray said.
“We hope that today’s report will encourage governments to identify and address gaps in their Covid-19 mortality reporting, so that they can more accurately direct pandemic resources.”
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