Final Golden Globes Predictions: Best Actress (Comedy or Musical) – Maria Bakalova Eyes a Debut Win

Clayton Davis
·6 min read

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

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2021 GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)

UPDATED: Feb. 24, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: The Golden Globes nominations were announced on Feb. 3, with Netflix’s “Mank” from David Fincher leading with six nods. As the ceremony approaches on Feb. 28, the categories have been analyzed to determine what they mean for the awards season. Several nominees have already made history, but with final voting taking place and due back to Ernst & Young’s accounting firm by Feb. 23, many films and performances could be record-breakers or trendsetters if they are selected as winners. Read all the records that could be set with each set of nominees for the Globes on Variety. With just under 30 days until the Oscar nominations, set to be announced on March 15, the race continues to take shape, possibly presenting more twists and turns over the next few weeks.

If Bakalova wins, she would be the third person to win this category for a debut performance following Barbra Streisand in “Funny Girl” (1968) and Julie Andrews in “Mary Poppins” (1964), and the youngest. Also, if she wins this award and goes on to be nominated (or win) the Oscar for best supporting actress, which the studio is campaigning for her, she would be the second actress to achieve the switch from lead at the Globes to supporting at the Oscars. The first was Maggie Smith for “California Suite” (1978).

PRECURSORS LEADER:
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. Maria Bakalova
    "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" (Amazon Studios)

    GLOBES HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Tutar Sagdiyev

    DIRECTOR: Jason Woliner
    SYNOPSIS: A satire on Trump’s America that follows a Kazakh journalist who’s sent to America to deliver a gift from his government to Vice President Mike Pence. Along the way, his worldview is turned upside down and steadfast beliefs are challenged by his teenage daughter.
    STARRING: Sacha Baron Cohen, Maria Bakalova

  2. Michelle Pfeiffer
    "French Exit" (Sony Pictures Classics)

    GLOBES HISTORY: 7 nominations, 1 win (1989's "The Fabulous Baker Boys")
    ROLE: Frances Price

    DIRECTOR: Azazel Jacobs
    SYNOPSIS: An aging Manhattan socialite living on what's barely left of her inheritance moves to a small apartment in Paris with her son and cat.
    STARRING: Michelle Pfeiffer, Lucas Hedges, Tracy Letts, Valerie Mahaffey, Susan Coyne, Imogen Poots, Danielle Macdonald, Daniel di Tomasso

  3. Anya Taylor-Joy
    "Emma." (Focus Features)

    GLOBES HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Emma Woodhouse

    DIRECTOR: Autumn de Wilde
    SYNOPSIS: In 1800s England, a well meaning but selfish young woman meddles in the love lives of her friends.
    STARRING: Anya Taylor-Joy, Angus Imrie, Letty Thomas, Gemma Whelan, Bill Nighy

  4. Rosamund Pike
    "I Care A Lot" (Netflix)

    GLOBES HISTORY: 1 nomination
    ROLE: Marla Grayson

    DIRECTOR: J Blakeson
    SYNOPSIS: A crooked legal guardian who drains the savings of her elderly wards meets her match when a woman she tries to swindle turns out to be more than she first appears.
    STARRING: Rosamund Pike, Peter Dinklage, Eiza Gonzalez

  5. Kate Hudson
    "Music" (HayWay Films)

    GLOBES HISTORY: 1 nomination, 1 win (2001's "Almost Famous")
    ROLE: Zu

    DIRECTOR: Sia
    SYNOPSIS: Zu is newly sober when she receives news that she is to become the sole guardian of her half-sister named Music, a young girl on the autism spectrum. The film explores two of Sia's favorite themes: finding your voice and creating family.
    STARRING: Kate Hudson, Leslie Odom Jr, Maddie Zegler

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.

About the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.

  • The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.

About the SAG Awards

The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”

  • The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021

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