Is Golden Minerals' (NYSEMKT:AUMN) 170% Share Price Increase Well Justified?

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The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For example, the Golden Minerals Company (NYSEMKT:AUMN) share price had more than doubled in just one year - up 170%. On top of that, the share price is up 12% in about a quarter. But this could be related to the strong market, which is up 8.9% in the last three months. It is also impressive that the stock is up 71% over three years, adding to the sense that it is a real winner.

See our latest analysis for Golden Minerals

Golden Minerals wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

Golden Minerals actually shrunk its revenue over the last year, with a reduction of 27%. We're a little surprised to see the share price pop 170% in the last year. It just goes to show the market doesn't always pay attention to the reported numbers. It's quite likely the revenue fall was already priced in, anyway.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Golden Minerals shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 170% over the last year. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 1.9% per year over five years. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Golden Minerals (2 are significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

But note: Golden Minerals may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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