How good (or bad) will this Kentucky basketball team be? We asked the national experts.

Is there a more intriguing team in college basketball going into the 2023-24 season than the Kentucky Wildcats?

It’d be a challenge to find one.

UK is never lacking for attention this time of year, and that baked-in outside interest — along with the path John Calipari has chosen to go with his roster, in a potential turning-point season, no less — will ensure that plenty of eyes will be on the Cats over the next few months.

While pretty much all of the sport has decided to go old — experienced transfers and fifth-year players are all the rage these days — Calipari is headed in another direction. UK’s coach has loaded up on freshmen — eight of them, in fact — and those young players will almost certainly dictate how this season will go for the Wildcats, who haven’t been to a Final Four since 2015 and last advanced past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament in 2019.

Calipari still has five seasons beyond this one on that mega-contract he signed back in 2019, but much of UK’s fanbase has been restless for a while, and the Hall of Fame coach could use a banner season to calm the tensions.

So, what’s the outlook for this Kentucky team?

The Herald-Leader asked more than 20 college basketball experts from around the country for their predictions on Kentucky’s 2023-24 campaign. Trying to project what happens in the postseason before any games are played — and long before the NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed — doesn’t make much sense. So we asked these experts to predict how UK would do in the months leading up to March Madness, and where the Cats might be positioned going into it.

We also gave a range of choices. Here’s how the question was posed, along with the options:

How do you think the regular season will go for Kentucky?

• 1 seed: Star freshmen excel right off the bat, and UK marches through the season.

• 2-3 seed: Kentucky goes into March as one of the top 10 teams in the country.

• 4-6 seed: Some struggles along the way, but UK is a realistic, high-upside Final Four contender.

• 7 seed or worse: Kentucky makes the NCAA Tournament, but it’s another uneven season.

• No NCAA Tournament: UK’s struggles last throughout the season. No March Madness.

Some of our experts replied that it was too early to even make a projection on this team. They wanted to see these Wildcats play a little first. That’s understandable. But there were a dozen responses that actually included predictions, and — for all the uncertainty around this Kentucky team — the consensus was crystal clear.

Kentucky’s best-case scenario?

It doesn’t sound like anyone is expecting this to be one of those John Calipari teams. The freshmen aren’t quite as hyped as John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins, sensations of the 35-3 squad in Calipari’s first season. There’s not as much star power — young and old — as the 38-1 “platoon” team of 2014-15. And there don’t seem to be any generational talents near the level of Anthony Davis, who led Kentucky to the national title in 2012.

So, no one picked the “1 seed” option. And no one picked the “2-3 seed” option as it was worded, either. We told the experts we polled to insert their own projection, if none of our options exactly matched their thoughts on this UK team.

And Mike DeCourcy, the longtime national college basketball writer at The Sporting News — and a close chronicler of Calipari’s career — did just that.

“I have Kentucky projected to be a No. 3 seed at this point, although that could slip by a few seed lines if the big guys don’t heal reasonably soon,” DeCourcy said. “I’m higher on the Wildcats than those who’ve become convinced being freshman-dominant is not a successful formula, but they need at least one of their big guys available to protect the rim. I believe Tre Mitchell can handle the middle periodically, or when matchups make it necessary or advantageous, but they’re going to need more size on a regular basis to be a top-10 team in the 2024 season.”

That 3 seed projection from DeCourcy was the loftiest of anyone who responded. And even that came with the caveat that the Cats would need at least one of their currently sidelined bigs — Aaron Bradshaw, Zvonimir Ivisic or Ugonna Onyenso — to return to the court and contribute.

There’s no specific timetable for any of those players to be ready to go, with Bradshaw ahead of Onyenso in the recovery process — both had offseason foot injuries — and Ivisic still waiting on the NCAA eligibility process.

It’s possible that none will be ready to have a sizable impact over the first few weeks of the season, which begins Monday against New Mexico State.

What are your expectations for this Kentucky basketball season? Vote in our poll.

More UK basketball predictions

Nearly everyone who responded to our question came up with the same answer.

The national expectation is that Kentucky will have its struggles but ultimately end up in that 4-6 seed range with some considerable upside going into the postseason.

CBS Sports national writer Gary Parrish has the Cats at No. 16 in his preseason rankings — same as UK’s placement in the initial AP Top 25 poll — and he’s intrigued by the team’s potential.

“I’d say a 4-to-6 seed sounds about right — and I’d lean closer to 4 than 6,” Parrish said. “Obviously, Kentucky will once again be heavily reliant on first-year teenagers while a lot of the rest of the country tried to get older and did. If this season doesn’t go well, that’ll likely be why. But there’s still just so much talent on that roster. Maybe two lottery picks. Maybe four first-round picks. That’s why I’d never say never with Kentucky. The ceiling is super-high.

“But to be great, Kentucky will have to show that a really young team can still compete at the top of the sport in this era when rosters built around older players tend to succeed more often. Can the Wildcats do it? I don’t know. But I’m eager to see how it all plays out.”

Matt Norlander of CBS Sports recently ranked the top 101 college basketball teams going into the season, and he had Kentucky at No. 21 on that list. His answer for this exercise — another vote for the 4-6 seed range — aligned with that ranking.

“John Calipari will undeniably have to rely on a freshman-backed cast to a level that few other coaches will,” Norlander said. “In 2023-24, that makes for a compelling story nationally in college hoops. UK fans are familiar with Calipari’s inconsistent record against ranked competition in recent years; he’ll need to have one of the stronger coaching campaigns of his career to reverse that trend. I think Kentucky pulls off some impressive wins, but with the competition in the SEC and a non-conference schedule that will offer up a decent dose of tough foes, I would be surprised if Kentucky worked its way to the 1 or 2 (seed) line come Selection Sunday.

“A realistic season would be third or fourth in the SEC, with the freshmen coming together in time to make a deep tournament run on the table.”

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello voted UK at No. 15 in the first AP poll. He also picked the 4-6 seed range from among our options.

“I think Kentucky will have some growing pains early in the season, not just because the majority of the roster is freshmen, but also because literally all of their bigs have uncertain availability,” Borzello said. “Tre Mitchell can fill in just fine, but it’s not the same as having Mitchell playing alongside one of Bradshaw, Onyenso or potentially Ivisic. But once the whole team is healthy and available — and if D.J. Wagner is able to be the next-level scorer and playmaker Calipari needs — there are few teams that can match Kentucky from a pure talent perspective.”

Field of 68 podcast founder Rob Dauster shared similar thoughts.

“I think 4-to-6 seed with upside is probably the most likely outcome,” he said. “With that much youth, there are going to be bumps in the road, especially if the two bigs are out until SEC play. But the talent is there. I think that a season arc similar to what Duke had last season is what we’ll see. Struggled early, turned it on in February, everyone had them as the sneaky Final Four pick on Selection Sunday.”

That five-star-freshman-heavy Duke team lost early-season games to Kansas and Purdue, then dropped four of their first five ACC road trips before ultimately winning their final nine games heading into the NCAA Tournament, where the Blue Devils were a buzzy 5 seed before losing to Tennessee in the second round.

CBS Sports insider Jon Rothstein said the wording of the “4-6 seed” option — classifying UK as a realistic Final Four contender — was “right on point.”

Concern for Kentucky recruits?

There aren’t many college basketball insiders that have seen Kentucky’s young players as much as 247Sports national analyst Travis Branham, who also picked the “4-6 seed” option.

“Kentucky has lots of talent across the board but obviously a lot of youth and pieces that will require ironing out some wrinkles,” Branham said. “One reason I think Kentucky is more in the 4-to-6 range at the end of the season is partly due to youth but largely due to no true point guard. And the combo guards they have that will run point in D.J. Wagner and Rob Dillingham are both very young, and we could see some turnover and decision-making woes throughout the season.”

While most of the respondents focused on the questionable availability of UK’s bigs as the main positional concern, Branham noted the skepticism surrounding the young guards, a narrative that has been prevalent in the recruiting world as these guys have grown up.

247Sports classifies Wagner — the Cats’ presumptive starting point guard — as a “combo guard,” and the 18-year-old’s decision-making with the ball, especially in halfcourt situations, has been questioned in the past. Wagner had just one assist in 27 minutes during Kentucky’s exhibition opener Friday night, and it’s logical to think there will be bumps in the road as he finds his way.

Still, Branham listed Wagner at No. 12 on his initial NBA Draft “Big Board” that was posted last week. Justin Edwards is No. 2 on that list, and Bradshaw is 15th.

“One thing I think John Calipari has in his favor is his history of his teams getting better throughout the season,” Branham said. “And with the talent and competitiveness on this roster, I think they will likely have some valleys this season but could go into the SEC Tournament and March red hot, like we have seen before.”

Calipari’s 2010-11 and 2013-14 teams had considerable struggles throughout the regular season before advancing to the Final Four as 4 and 8 seeds, respectively.

UK predictions from SEC country

The projections were more of the same from those who keep a closer eye on the Cats.

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reporter Bob Holt, the longtime Razorbacks beat writer and SEC basketball aficionado, also picked the “4-6 seed” option.

“With eight freshmen, no matter how talented they are, there’s bound to be some growing pains, especially with a lot of SEC teams having older rosters with returnees and the transfer portal,” said Holt, who voted UK at No. 12 in the preseason AP poll. “So I think the Cats will have some great wins and maybe a couple of head-scratching losses.

“But if there’s any coach who will get the most out of a great freshman class and get them to play together given time, it’s John Calipari. My thought is when the NCAA Tournament rolls around, Kentucky will be one of those teams no one wants to see in their side of the bracket.”

ESPN announcer Tom Hart, who calls many of the Wildcats’ games on the SEC Network and has been around the team this preseason, also went with the “4-6 seed” option.

“But only because of a slow start and a hyper-competitive SEC,” Hart said. “The bigs need time to get healthy (and Big Z acclimated), and the freshmen need time to grow. This team will get better every month.”

Chris Dortch, the editor and publisher of Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook — and a former Tennessee beat writer — also picked the “4-6 seed” option, with UK as a realistic Final Four contender by season’s end.

Lower on the list

Luke DeCock, columnist for The News & Observer — right in the middle of ACC basketball country in Raleigh, N.C. — noted that he voted Kentucky at No. 21 on his AP preseason ballot, calling that a solid 6 seed.

CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm said he projects UK as a “borderline Top 25 team” by the end of the season. The No. 25 team on the NCAA Tournament line would be a 7 seed, he noted. “So I guess I’ll go with that.”

Somewhat surprisingly, there wasn’t a whole lot of variance in these responses. No one had the Wildcats better than a 3 seed. No one had them worse than a 7 seed. And while it’s clear that no one wants to go all in on these five-star freshmen setting the court on fire from the get-go, nobody is outright dismissing their potential for a deep postseason run either.

“Man, they’re young,” Palm said. “Lots of talent though.”

That about sums it up. The ceiling is high — possibly high enough to raise a banner in Rupp Arena — but there are likely to be some stumbles and backward steps along the way.

Whatever happens, the college basketball world will be watching.

Next game

Kentucky State at No. 16 Kentucky

What: The second of UK’s two preseason exhibition games against in-state opponents

When: 7 p.m. Thursday

TV: SEC Network Plus (online only)

Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1

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