The GOP divide threatening Republicans in suburban New Hampshire

New Hampshire’s GOP base has long been defined by the Yankee Republican — fiscally conservative and socially liberal. But the Trump era has created new divisions within the New Hampshire GOP base, especially in moderate Rockingham County, a middle-class suburban county located 50 miles from Boston.

The biggest towns in the county, Salem and Derry, account for much of the Republican base, while the more coastal areas to the east have a Democratic tilt.

The tension is emblematic of a nationwide challenge for the GOP, and the county will offer a clue as to whether Republicans who voted Democratic in 2020 will stay that course, or if they’ll move back to the GOP now that Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot.

Since 2008, Rockingham, a former Republican stronghold, has flipped repeatedly in presidential elections. In 2020, the county went for President Joe Biden by 2 percentage points.

But with Biden’s approval rating in New Hampshire dipping into the high 30s, Republicans are eyeing the state's three up-for-grabs congressional seats — two House and one Senate — all held by Democrats. The 1st District, which includes most of Rockingham and is represented by Chris Pappas, is most likely to flip. In 2010 and 2014, the past two midterms under a Democratic president, Republicans won the seat.

The state’s June 10 filing deadline has come and gone, and Republicans have not put forth a candidate for the House or Senate with the name recognition that could help their path to congressional gains.

When Gov. Chris Sununu announced he would not challenge incumbent Maggie Hassan for her U.S. Senate seat, things got complicated.

Sununu is not a MAGA Republican, and has publicly joked that Trump is “fucking crazy.” Now, former special forces Gen. Don Bolduc — a staunch Trump supporter who claims the 2020 election was stolen — appears to be the Republican frontrunner in the race. If Bolduc wins the primary, his MAGA rhetoric may prove off-putting to Rockingham’s more moderate GOP base.

A host of Republican candidates have emerged to challenge Pappas. Two were formally employed by the Trump administration — former Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt and former Trump State Department official Matt Mowers. Leavitt also has claimed Trump won the election, though she's recognized Biden is the president.

Despite possible GOP divisions, Democrats will still be hard-pressed to retain their two House seats in the state — especially in moderate Rockingham. The county is the second largest in New Hampshire, and Republicans need to win it if they hope to offset possible losses in slightly more Democratic Hillsborough County.

But, if voters decide to air their grievances with Biden at the polls, Republicans could take both counties. Rockingham benefits from tourism, especially in the summer months, and high inflation and gas prices could cost the county — making the economy even more of a hot-button issue at the polls in November.

— Sophie Gardner