Gordon and Hageman ahead by wide margins in UW poll

Aug. 12—CHEYENNE — Nationally, locally and throughout the state, the Republican race to represent Wyoming in the U.S. House of Representatives is sucking up much of the attention in the run-up to Tuesday's primary.

This holds true for what is perhaps the second independent poll conducted about this particular race. The new poll also shows Gov. Mark Gordon as being significantly ahead of any other candidate, in his re-election campaign.

And the results show divides among Wyomingites, when it comes to faith in elections results. The positive news, the current, outgoing secretary of state indicated, is the results show residents think elections within the state are secure.

Consistent with a previous poll, one just released by the University of Wyoming found a wide gap between the two frontrunners to be the state's sole U.S. representative. In the UW survey, likely Republican primary voters said they would pick Harriet Hageman over incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney, among other candidates. There is a 30-percentage point difference between the two women.

Hageman, who is backed by ex-President Donald Trump, would get 57.4% of the vote. Cheney would get 27.8%. Cheney is also vice chair of the congressional panel investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the U.S. Capitol that involved supporters of Trump, some of whom claim he won the 2020 presidential election and should have gotten a second term.

The other candidates in this state's only 2022 race involving Congress are well behind both Hageman and Cheney. Sen. Anthony Bouchard, R-Cheyenne, comes in at third place, with 1.7% of likely GOP primary voters saying they plan to back him. Denton Knapp is at 0.8%, and Robyn Belinskey gets 0.2% in the survey.

The poll was done by the Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center via phone interviews between July 25 and Aug. 6. Respondents were from "among a random sample of cell phone and landline telephone numbers believed to be in Wyoming." The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points among all those surveyed and is 4.1 points for those saying they plan to vote in the GOP primary.

Congressional race

Belinskey says she is speaking for others, too, in saying this race isn't just about the two leaders in the polls.

"The general public could care less about how these guys are acting," Belinskey, speaking by phone from campaigning in Powell, said of Cheney and Hageman. "They're pretty much over these two."

The candidate also questioned whether the poll really was independent.

"They're very liberal over there," Belinskey said of UW in Laramie. "It leads me to believe that they will pump it up to whoever the feel like because the only people who are getting attention now are Cheney and Hageman."

Among others vying for the House seat, Cheney's campaign also responded to a request for comment for this story. A campaign spokesperson pointed the Wyoming Tribune Eagle to an online video of her released Thursday morning.

In the video, Cheney addresses her comments to "citizens across our great state and all across our country. America cannot remain free if we abandon the truth. The lie that 2020 presidential election was stolen is insidious."

Governor's race

Though the congressional race is getting much of the attention, at least when it comes to media coverage and to experts' commentary, UW also asked those it surveyed about the gubernatorial race.

Gordon was found to be some 40 percentage points ahead of his closest rival in his race.

Almost 54% of those UW asked said they plan to vote for Gordon. Another 14% would back Brent Bien. And 3.5% would go for Rex Rammell, with just under 1% saying they would check off James Scott Quick on their ballot.

One-quarter of those who are likely to vote in the GOP primary said they didn't know who they might support. Among all those surveyed, 81.2% said they would likely vote in that party's primary, while 7.6% said they would vote in the Democratic Party primary. Almost 10% said they didn't know which party's primary in which they would take part.

Among candidates for governor, Rammell was the only one to quickly reply to the WTE's inquiries seeking reaction to the polling. His comment:

"If over 50% of the people end up voting for Mark Gordon, it will prove that at least half of Wyoming hasn't eaten enough dirt. Time will fix that problem as there is a lot of suffering headed Wyoming's way."

Faith in elections

When it comes to faith in election results, a few divides were seen in the new data. Those in Wyoming who were queried by UW were roughly split in their views of whether Joe Biden was legitimately elected president in 2020, and also on the question of if there was "widespread voter fraud" in that election.

However, the vast majority of those asked have some confidence their votes next week will be properly tabulated. On that last question, 59.3% deemed themselves as being very confident "the votes in Wyoming's primary election will be accurately counted this year." Another 32.1% were somewhat confident, with 7.3% lacking some or all confidence. Just under 1% answered that they didn't know or weren't sure.

By contrast, people in the state were divided when asked about the last election. They were asked by the university if they "think there is solid evidence that there was widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election, or no solid evidence?

Some 43% answered there was solid evidence, and the same percentage replied there was no such evidence. Among only those who say they are likely voters in the Republican primary, by almost 11 percentage points, they were more likely to think there was evidence of fraud than not.

Among reasons for the much greater confidence level respondents had in the upcoming election than in the past one is that they seem to be associating the last one with national results and this year's with voting within Wyoming. This is according to Ed Buchanan, who plans to step down as secretary of state sometime after the primary.

"I think people view things that happen outside Wyoming with more skepticism," akin to how people may hold Congress in low esteem while respecting their own federal representatives, Buchanan said. He is slated to become a judge, and he was appointed by Gordon, after he decided not to seek re-election.

Speaking by phone Thursday evening, Buchanan noted some 94% of likely GOP primary voters think the election will be accurately counted: "That's a darn high number." It's three percentage points higher than for voters of all political stripes.

"Overall, Wyoming voters overwhelming trust Wyoming elections. You can't really beat that," the official said. "I think people are more comfortable and have a greater knowledge of what's going on in their back yard."

Voter ed

Buchanan also ascribed such trust to voter education efforts, including by him and his office, to show residents voting machines, answer their questions and clear up any misinformation.

Buchanan estimated he had held some 15 such events statewide since the 2020 election.

"I think that education campaign was effective," he said. "My experience was people would come in with questions," what he described as "a healthy curiosity with how their elections work." By the end of the meeting, those queries would be answered, he said.

Another question UW put to those it contacted: "Regardless of whom you supported in the 2020 election, do you think Joe Biden's election as president was legitimate, or was he not legitimately elected?"

Among respondents statewide, 45.4% answered it was legitimate, with 39.4% saying it wasn't legit. The percentages are roughly flipped among the subset of respondents who are likely voters in the GOP primary election.

Regarding concerns about the 2020 election, Cheney stated in her YouTube video comments, "like many candidates across this country, my opponents in Wyoming have said that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen. No one who understands our nation's laws, no one with an honest, honorable, genuine commitment to our Constitution would say that."

This report has been updated with comments from the current, outgoing secretary of state.

Jonathan Make is the Wyoming Tribune Eagle's assistant managing editor and editor of the Wyoming Business Report. He can be reached at jmake@wyomingnews.com. Follow him on Twitter @makejdm.