Gov. Doug Ducey may be the last of his kind in Arizona. How will that shape his legacy?

Doug Ducey almost always got what he wanted as governor.

Except an heir apparent.

There are virtually no Republicans in Arizona eager to carry on his milquetoast, steady-as-she-goes brand of conservatism. Even the few that share his values wore a populist mask during the primary election – and lost.

And as a result, Katie Hobbs will be sworn in on Jan. 5, the first Democrat to hold the office in 14 years.

That makes Ducey, a former CEO, an endangered breed, even if he swept into office in 2014 on the promise to bring a private-market sensibility to government. And if his strong reelection performance in 2018 held off what likely would have been a much stronger blue wave.

So, how will Ducey be remembered years from now? Here’s a look at the actions that could define his legacy:

Republican influence

The Arizona Republican Party is even weaker than when Ducey entered office, surrendering many of the major statewide offices to Democrats, including governor, secretary of state, attorney general and two U.S. Senate seats.

While Ducey’s approach to the party was benign neglect, compare that to Florida’s Ron DeSantis, whose takeover of his state was complete. Florida, once a swing state, is now unambiguously red. Arizona is a deepening shade of purple.

Legacy:How Ducey's time in office could affect generations

To his credit, Ducey never surrendered to Trump’s national populism. He certified 2020 election results, famously ignoring a call from the president – with “Hail to the Chief” as the ringtone – while he signed the documents.

But he never put up much of a fight against election conspiracies in his own state party. Consequently, Trump – not Ducey – had become the leader of Arizona Republicans.

School choice

Ducey has received national praise for offering universal vouchers to private schools and homeschools, arguing that such a reform was needed to truly level the playing field for low-income kids in sub-par schools.

Time will tell if that’s the case.

More than 30,000 students are now receiving state money, the majority of which were already paying for private school or homeschool themselves.

Just a few months after the governor signed the legislation, vouchers now tally more than $300 million – roughly 10 times what budget officials had initially projected.

At minimum, Ducey’s signature policy deal needs a lot more accountability to ensure that parents are spending this money correctly and that the expenditures are improving education in Arizona, particularly for the low-income students they promised to help.

The Legislature must clean up that mess.

Jobs

Ducey, to his credit, recognized early in his term that Arizona was primed to make inroads in advanced manufacturing. It was a keystone of his administration to put our best economic foot forward.

Whether it’s a function of state policy and executive cajoling – or just good timing – there are a lot more high-paying jobs than when Ducey took office. Arizona is a growing presence in the semiconductor, battery and electric vehicle manufacturing industries.

Yet while many of these investments are groundbreaking, a few are infamously so.

The governor and Legislature enthusiastically welcomed Theranos in 2015, changing the law so consumers could get its blood tests without a doctor’s order. Thousands of Arizonans used the unproven technology before Theranos proved to be a false promise, and its founder Elizabeth Holmes a grifter.

Ducey and lawmakers also forbid cities and towns from enacting laws against short-term rental companies like Airbnb – and have been dealing with the fallout ever since, from problems with noise, trash and unruly guests to lost housing stock.

Gambling

Ducey and his staff spent years buttering up tribes so they would not fight a deal to allow others – namely, sports teams – to run sports books and fantasy betting enterprises.

It worked.

With tribes on board, Democrats didn’t balk an expanded gambling compact. Republicans were told it would provide lots of new revenue for the state, and the legislation allowing the deal was rammed through in one of those expedited, “trust me on the details” deals.

But while bets have been off the charts, revenue has been disappointing. Arizona has only received a pittance of the estimated tax revenue.

The deal also allowed free bets temporarily – a potentially dangerous move if it gets people hooked on waging big amounts without immediate, bank-account emptying consequences. The revenue won’t come anywhere close to handling the problems of gambling addiction when free bets end.

Arizona taxpayers could have gotten a lot more from this deal, and that’s on Ducey.

Administration

Ducey’s mantra has been to run government like a business and cut through red tape.

His first act as governor was to call for a moratorium on new rules and regulations. He led the charge to relax some licensing requirements for hairdressers and others, to national recognition.

Yet for all the ballyhoo, the Ducey administration has created two regulations for each one that it erased.

And the governor, despite his CEO bona fides, made several regrettable staffing choices, particularly in his first term. A number of key department leaders were embattled, investigated or fired.

Budget and taxes

Ducey inherited a state bleeding red ink after the Great Recession. He pledged to cut income taxes every year until they are as close to zero as possible, an idea that Republican lawmakers eagerly embraced and culminated in a plan to enact a flat 2.5% income tax system, which begins next year.

The low-tax mantra is so popular (among politicians, at least) that even Democratic Gov.-elect Katie Hobbs pledged not to raise taxes during the election. But that also leaves questions about the state’s financial future when the economy takes a downturn, as is predicted later this year.

Arizona already was heavily reliant on volatile sales taxes before it slashed income taxes, a key second leg of the revenue stool. It’s an open question whether Arizona will have enough revenue to sustain critical services once the largesse of pandemic relief dollars runs out.

Education funding

Ducey deserves more credit than he gets for restoring education spending cut during the Great Recession. He brokered compromises to settle a longstanding lawsuit (Proposition 123) and quell teacher walkouts (his 20 by 2020 plan).

But Ducey also is poised to leave office on a sour note, having reneged on a budget promise earlier this year to call a special session to lift the state’s Aggregate Expenditure Limit.

If the limit isn’t lifted by spring, schools would be forced to make giant budget cuts – ones that could lead to teacher layoffs and closed schools if districts aren’t allowed to spend the money lawmakers appropriated to them.

COVID-19

No governor handled the pandemic well.

They either overreacted or underreacted to rapidly changing circumstances, with lives and livelihoods caught in each pendulum swing.

Ducey’s administration was slow to mandate testing and secure protective equipment early on at long-term care facilities, for example, then earned national praise for its mass vaccination sites.

Ducey shut down businesses, particularly targeting high-risk businesses like gyms and theaters, then reopened them with little guidance on how to operate safely.

He later used his executive power – which some said went too far – to keep schools and local governments from adopting their own restrictions.

Arizona schools reopened earlier than many nationwide, with clear academic benefits for students. And economic recovery was relatively quick.

But the state also suffered one of the nation’s highest death rates.

Supreme Court expansion

Ducey pushed through a bill in 2016, with the help of a Republican Legislature, to increase the size of the Arizona Supreme Court from five to seven justices.

The chief justice at the time, the lone Democrat on the court, wrote in an op-ed for The Arizona Republic that neither Arizona’s population nor the court’s caseload justified the need for more justices.

But he said he agreed to the proposal because it also meant critical court funding and salary increases for Arizona judges. (In the end, lawmakers gave less funding and raises than what had been pledged.)

Ducey has appointed five of the seven state Supreme Court justices. The two others were appointed by Republican Gov. Jan Brewer. Few rulings garner more than one or two dissents, assuring a conservative, occasionally libertarian influence for years to come.

Border

Ducey’s Border Strike Force was much ballyhooed (by Ducey) but mostly took credit for drug finds during traffic stops.

Putting shipping containers on the border was a costly political stunt.

But the governor also recognized the damage that Senate Bill 1070, the state’s short-lived immigration law, did.

He also has been a big advocate for trade with Mexico, establishing much closer ties with Mexico City and leaders in Sonora, Mexico.

Water

The governor did not negotiate the Drought Contingency Plan, but he came through with cash and diplomacy to finalize the state version of that plan, arguably his greatest water policy triumph.

Though the deal was a Band-Aid for the imperiled Colorado River, it remains a model for how disparate water interests can work together and find solutions that no one loves, but everyone can live with.

He also pushed hard to secure $1 billion for much-needed water augmentation and conservation projects.

But the effort got an early black eye when Ducey’s allies pushed to expedite a deal to buy water from a proposed desalination plant in Mexico in a matter of days.

What is Ducey's legacy?

Our former colleague, Bob Robb, once called Ducey the “inbox governor.”

That may be his legacy.

Even when he touted legacy-making concepts – like school choice or lower taxes – it was often in broad strokes: Get creative, lawmakers. Bring me a plan.

Yet Ducey knew how to clear the inbox, how to address the issue at hand.

He kept the state from falling apart during a time of great political and social turmoil.

As legacies go, that’s not a bad one to have.

This is an opinion of The Arizona Republic's editorial board.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Gov. Doug Ducey may be the last of his kind in Arizona