Gov. Lamont needs big turnout in Connecticut cities to win in November in rematch with GOP’s Stefanowski

After winning by only three percentage points in 2018, Gov. Ned Lamont is focusing strongly on Democratic voters in the cities to provide the critical support in November needed to win reelection.

Lamont has been making multiple stops recently in Bridgeport and New Haven, among others, as he spreads the word in a rematch against Republican Bob Stefanowski of Madison. Stefanowski needs a solid turnout among Republicans in the suburbs, while Lamont needs a big showing in Democratic strongholds.

“If not for the turnout in the cities for Lamont four years ago, Stefanowski would have won,” said Scott McLean, a longtime political science professor at Quinnipiac University in Hamden. “Lamont knows he needs the Connecticut cities to vote for him strongly.”

As a New Haven resident and student of politics, McLean says Lamont has provided millions in increased funding to the cities for educational operating budgets, public school construction, cleaning up contaminated brownfields and converting aging buildings into apartments.

“He has delivered. He’s come here to New Haven multiple times, just in the last three weeks,” McLean said of Lamont. “He can say he’s made a down payment on his promises to them four years ago, and he’s going to deliver next time for the cities of Connecticut.”

But Stefanowski charges that Lamont has a familiar pattern of making promises to city voters during campaigns and then disappearing.

“What you hear from the people is they see Ned around election time and then they don’t see him for four years,” Stefanowski said in an interview. “Now, all of a sudden in an election year, he’s popping up again. ... For the governor to go around and say he’s helped the cities when they’re probably in the worst position they’ve been in in decades is somewhere between ironic and sad.”

Better off?

While the statewide unemployment rate is 4.1%, the unemployment rates in Hartford, Bridgeport, New London and Waterbury are all at least two percentage points higher, he said. Crime, too, continues to be a problem, he said.

“Crime in Hartford — homicides are up,” Stefanowski said. “It’s certainly not safer. Then you have the minor crimes like catalytic converters and stolen cars. ... Crime hasn’t gone down. Unemployment hasn’t gone down. Taxes haven’t gone down.”

Stefanowski estimated that he and his wife, Amy, have been to Bridgeport “probably 50 times since the last election” nearly four years ago.

“Walk down Main Street in Bridgeport,” Stefanowski said. “You ask them if food is less expensive. The answer is no. You ask them if it is safer than four years ago. They say no. You ask them if inflation is better. They will tell you no. You ask them whether their health care services are better. They will tell you no. You ask them whether their education is better. They will tell you no. The cities are absolutely worse off than they were four years ago. ... Now that he’s up for reelection, he’s doing a tour of the cities and saying everything is great.”

Life can be difficult in the cities, he said.

“I hadn’t heard this term before. They call them food deserts,” Stefanowski said. “Many people have to walk, and there’s no food opportunities. So they have to walk miles, and then when they get there, a gallon of milk is $5.”

Asked about Stefanowski’s criticisms, Lamont circled back to a campaign promise his opponent made in 2018 to eliminate the state income tax, which provides for about half the money in the state’s general fund and generates even more money in robust years when Wall Street is doing well.

“If you would have eliminated the income tax, how do you think our cities would be doing?’’ Lamont asked. “How do you think our municipalities would be doing? How do you think our schools would be doing?”

After heading to Bridgeport earlier in the week, Lamont made two stops on Thursday in New Haven, one of his go-to spots in past campaigns. With a well-oiled machine under local Democratic chairman Vinnie Mauro, New Haven is known for turning out the votes in huge numbers on Election Day. New Haven provided the crucial votes to help make the difference for Democrat Dannel P. Malloy in 2010 and 2014, as well as Lamont in 2018.

Before leaving for New Haven, Lamont said, “I think our cities are enjoying the very beginning of a long-overdue renaissance. Look at the amount of housing that’s going in. Look at New London, where we have more housing being built or in the planning stages today than we’ve had in the last 10 or 20 years combined. People are rediscovering our cities. I think the outdoor dining was incredible. Look at the development that’s going on in New Haven now. ... They were all going to go to Cambridge, Massachusetts, but no, just the opposite. They’re coming into New Haven.”

Waterbury

Rep. Geraldo Reyes, a Waterbury Democrat who serves as the chairman of the Black and Puerto Rican Caucus, said that Lamont has delivered for the cities.

“I believe Gov. Lamont has definitely earned another opportunity,” Reyes said in an interview. “I believe he’s done more than enough to earn a second term. This is just me. I believe he will win this race even easier than he did the first. That’s me talking — based on what he’s done and his performance as governor — and I watch him very closely. I believe that Gov. Lamont will win again and will win by more than three points that he won by in the first term.”

At various events inside and outside the Capitol, Lamont can often be seen talking to Reyes privately — usually after press conferences have ended.

“People believe that Waterbury is solid blue, but it really isn’t,” Reyes said. “Waterbury is one of those rare, big municipalities in Connecticut that isn’t solid blue — unlike New Haven and Bridgeport and Hartford. They are solid blue. That’s not the case in Waterbury, which has many, many pockets of very conservative areas. So it plays a little bit different.”

Waterbury is a key city that Stefanowski says he will win this time — after losing four years ago by less than 3,200 votes. The city has been the home of former Gov. John G. Rowland and multiple Republicans through the years — setting up Stefanowski’s strategy for this fall.

“He’s put a stake in the ground in Waterbury,” Reyes said of Stefanowski. “He already opened up a headquarters months ago. Obviously, he did the same thing in New Britain. His strategy is not only targeting the large municipalities, but he’s also going after the mid-size towns like New Britain with 55,000, 60,000 people. He’s hoping that [five-term Republican Mayor] Erin Stewart can deliver that town for him.”

Reyes rejects the idea that Lamont has not done enough for the cities. Instead, he said that Lamont has worked closely with Waterbury Mayor Neil O’Leary on a wide variety of projects. Some improvements include ongoing highway construction at the infamous “Mixmaster” at the intersection of Routes 8 and 84 and seven new weekday trains on the Waterbury branch of the Metro-North Commuter Railroad.

“My district — the 75th District — has seen phenomenal investment in people, in bricks and mortar, economics, training, education,” Reyes said. “I can’t say I agree with Mr. Stefanowski that he hasn’t done a lot for the municipalities because that’s not what I’m seeing in Waterbury.”

Like Reyes, McLean disagrees with Stefanowski.

“There’s no way you can say he has not helped the cities,” McLean said of Lamont.

“Stefanowski is a suburb guy. That’s his base. But Republicans have been trending away from suburbs in terms of voter registration. I think the Republicans are still stronger in the suburbs and smaller cities and smaller towns. But it’s going to be even harder for Stefanowski to win in this election because of all the things that have happened since the last time — the demographic change, the tax cut from Lamont, COVID. I don’t think any of that has added up to a net advantage for Stefanowski in the suburbs.

“He’s not talking about spending more for the cities — at least not that I’ve heard — and certainly not at the level that Lamont is talking about.”

New Haven and Bridgeport

In the latest State Bond Commission meeting Friday, more than $10 million was set aside for New Haven, the hometown of Senate President Pro Tem Martin Looney, one of the most powerful legislators in the state.

“Once again, the state of Connecticut has come through with some essential funding for major investments in our communities, this time for much-needed affordable housing and senior housing improvements in New Haven, a reborn youth center for children who may still be struggling through the ramifications of the COVID pandemic, and a significant investment in the Institute Library, which really fills a special, cultural niche in the social fabric of New Haven,” Looney said.

“I’m also very pleased with the planned improvements to the phone system at the New Haven correctional facility, which is 20 years old and doesn’t even allow for voicemail. Regular contact with friends and family members is an integral part of rehabilitation, and that’s what these upgrades will provide. All of these state investments will improve the quality of life for thousands of New Haven residents, and I want to thank Gov. Lamont and the State Bond Commission for their commitment to our citizens.”

In an effort to help small businesses, Lamont met recently with more than 20 minority business owners from the Southern Black Chamber of Commerce in Bridgeport to highlight a $150 million loan program in underserved, low-income neighborhoods.

The new program provides low-interest loans as small as $5,000 and ranging as high as $500,000. The money is set aside at a 4.5% interest rate, specifically for small businesses and nonprofits with fewer than 100 full-time employees that sometimes have problems getting bank loans.

2006 race

Ever since running for the U.S. Senate in 2006, Lamont has relied heavily on votes from the cities and from Black voters. When he was running against then-U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman in the August 2006 primary, Lamont campaigned with well-known African Americans who traveled to Connecticut to help him.

Those included Rev. Jesse Jackson and Rev. Al Sharpton, who appeared together at a church in Bridgeport, among other stops. Jackson told The Courant at the time that he was supporting Lamont partly because, as a wealthy Greenwich resident, Lamont did not need to volunteer at a high school in hardscrabble Bridgeport at a time when he was not running for office.

Lamont was also accompanied at times by actor Danny Glover, known for high-profile films with Mel Gibson and others, as well as U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters of California, who traveled to the state on three straight weekends in warm temperatures for visits to churches in Waterbury and Bridgeport.

The outlook ahead

As a first-time candidate, Stefanowski came out of nowhere in 2018 and almost defeated the heavily funded Democrat for governor — losing by about 44,000 votes. Stefanowski came within three percentage points of beating Lamont, who has spent more than $40 million of his own money in three statewide races and is expected to spend as much as $15 million this year.

While Democrats disagree, Stefanowski says this year will be different in the cities.

“We came close to winning Waterbury last time. We’re going to win it this time,” Stefanowski said recently. “I won the 5th District last time. ... We’ve made a ton of terrific friends here.”

The multimillionaire candidates are largely self-funding their campaigns as Stefanowski has set aside $10 million and Lamont is expected to repeat the $15 million that he spent in 2018 to win the race.

Stefanowski is trying to break a 15-year losing streak by Republicans in major races in Connecticut. In 2006, then-Gov. M. Jodi Rell and then-U.S. Rep. Chris Shays of Bridgeport both won reelection. But Shays lost in the Democratic wave that swept in Barack Obama as president in 2008, and no Connecticut Republican has won a seat for Congress, governor or other statewide office since then.

“I think Stefanowski will say the race is tight right now, but I’m not seeing it,” McLean said. “Lamont has the advantage if the election was today, but the election isn’t today.”

Christopher Keating can be reached at ckeating@courant.com.