By Alister Doyle OSLO (Reuters) - Before a summit on climate change in Paris next week, many governments are citing scientific studies indicating that their plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions until 2030 will come within 0.7 degrees Celsius of an agreed 2C (3.6 Fahrenheit) target for limiting global warming this century. Yet the studies they choose to quote are only the most optimistic of a range of projections, and presume that governments will go on to make even deeper emission cuts after 2030, which is far from certain. With no action, a U.N. scientific panel estimates that the global average surface temperature in 2100 will be around 4.8C (8.6F) above pre-industrial times, dramatically increasing the frequency of extreme weather events and raising the sea level. To avoid the worst of these effects, a ceiling of 2C has been agreed, and about 170 governments have submitted national plans before the Nov. 30-Dec. 11 summit to curb emissions from 2020-30. Keen to show their policies will work, many cite two estimates that the pledges so far could limit the rise to 2.7C (4.9F). U.S. Climate Envoy Todd Stern mentioned 2.7C in testimony to a Senate sub-committee last month, saying national policies marked "a powerful move in the right direction". Christiana Figueres, the head of the U.N. Climate Secretariat, summed up the national plans in a report last month by saying they "have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100". Yet Bill Hare, one of the scientists behind Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a group of four European institutes that first estimated 2.7C, said promises for action until 2030 "mark progress, but current policies are far from enough". He said the CAT estimate required all countries to continue deeper curbs on emissions right up to 2100 - far stricter than the assumptions by most other research institutes. The International Energy Agency also estimates an increase of 2.7C. But projections by at least 10 research groups range up to a rise of 3.7C (6.7F). Thomas Spencer, of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations in France, noted that there were huge uncertainties in all projections beyond 2030: "It's like trying to predict the winner of a marathon after only the first 10 km." Bjorn Lomborg, head of the Copenhagen Consensus Center who won fame with his 2001 book "The Skeptical Environmentalist", reckons current national plans will only make a fraction of a degree of difference to warming this century. "It's like saying Greece is on track to solve its debt crisis after paying a first instalment of a loan," he said. This year is on track to be the warmest on record, already about 1.0C (1.8F) above pre-industrial times. Andrew Jones of U.S.-based experts Climate Interactive, which estimated with MIT Sloan that the existing pledges put the globe on track for 3.5C (6.3C) of warming by 2100, said 94 percent of the difference with CAT hinged on less optimistic projections about what happens after 2030. Climate Interactive reckons, for instance, that overall greenhouse gas emissions from China, the world's biggest emitter, will rise after 2030, while CAT says they will fall. (This story has been refiled to remove erroneous conversion of 2C in paragraph 4.) (Reporting By Alister Doyle; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting
Reese Witherspoon Revealed "Legally Blonde" Wasn't Allowed To Film At Stanford University After Learning The School Made An Exception For Another Project
"This is major!"View Entire Post ›
- The Daily Beast
DANIEL SLIM/AFP via Getty ImagesTwo foreign female tourists were caught in a crossfire between rival crime groups and shot to death last Thursday in the high-end resort town of Tulum, Mexico. Three other people were also wounded when the firefight broke out in the popular restaurant, La Malquerida, not far from the beach. Of the two women who were killed, one was from Germany and the other India.“They were just in the wrong place at the wrong time, and got caught in an exchange of gunfire betwee
- Lexington Herald-Leader
Linda Blackford: Schools are so confusing these days. Books about the civil rights movement, no. Lap dances with administrators, yes!
- Yahoo Life
Tara Reid responds to body shamers who accuse her of being 'so thin': 'Please don't be one of those people'
Tara Reid and her friend Taryn Manning shut down body shamers who accused Reid of being too thin.
As her first granddaughter, Princess Charlotte is set to inherit one of Princess Diana's most famous, iconic and coveted heirlooms.
- ProFootball Talk on NBC Sports
Although Raiders coach Jon Gruden technically resigned, the resignation undoubtedly came under threat of termination, if he didn’t choose to leave voluntarily. Unresolved when he abruptly walked away was the balance of his reported 10-year, $100 million contract. Via Vic Tafur of TheAthletic.com, owner Mark Davis said Wednesday that a settlement has been reached. Gruden [more]
Bill Hemmer and Dana Perino dropped a real whopper this week.
- Yahoo Sports
The Lakers had a 26-point lead against the 0-4 Thunder. They lost.
Donald Trump's "letter to the editor" was crammed full of nonsense, but the newspaper published it anyway,
- Miami Herald
The man had one-off roles on the shows.
The GOP lawmaker gets a blunt reminder of his own past.
Jada Pinkett Smith is getting real about her sex life with husband Will Smith. It’s a topic a lot of couples might relate to about keeping things spicy in the bedroom after many years together — and the expectations we place on a partner when it comes to our wants and desires. Jada had Gwyneth […]
The newly-announced SKIMS x Fendi ready-to-wear collection launches on Nov. 9
- Yahoo Sports Canada
Joel Quenneville shouldn't have been anywhere near the Panthers' bench on Wednesday.
- Madame Noire
Especially as they voyage back home, we wish the Arby family the best.
- NBC Sports BayArea
James Harden, Chris Paul and Patrick Beverley provided further proof as to why the NBA's officiating changes were necessary.
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of New York tried to goad the former president in an MSNBC interview.
- Nets Wire
James Harden: "A foul is a foul no matter what league it is.”
The late-night host offered a way to immortalize the Fox News star... if it catches on.
NASCAR fined crew chief Adam Stevens $20,000 and suspended him from Sunday’s Cup Series race at Martinsville Speedway (2 p.m. ET, NBC) when the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota was found with two lug nuts not safe and secure after the playoff race at Kansas Speedway. Stevens was one of two crew chiefs suspended […]