Grammys 2024: Taylor Swift’s ‘Midnights’ is the very, very, very early front-runner for Album of the Year

Daniel Montgomery
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The 2023 Grammys just took place on February 5, but the eligibility period for 2024 is already almost half over, so we launched our predictions for Album of the Year. There’s still a long way to go, but at this early stage things are looking good for Taylor Swift, whose “Midnights” is the early front-runner for the award, according to the combined predictions of hundreds of users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center so far. If it does win, it would set yet another record for the singer-songwriter.

“Midnights” has been a massive commercial success for Swift. It debuted with 1.5 million equivalent album units based on the combination of its traditional sales, individual track sales, and online streams. It made Swift the first artist ever to occupy all of the top 10 slots on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart. And it will be promoted by an “Eras Tour” that was in such high demand that it could actually affect American anti-trust law. It was also a critical success, scoring 85 out of 100 on MetaCritic.

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If she wins Album of the Year, it would be her fourth victory in the category, following triumphs for “Fearless,” “1989,” and “Folklore.” That would be historic as she is currently tied with Frank Sinatra, Stevie Wonder, and Paul Simon for the all-time record at three wins apiece. No artist in history has ever won Album of the Year four times. The only individuals who have won the award that many times are engineers Tom Coyne, Şerban Ghenea, and John Hanes.

But Swift already has tough competition in the form of SZA, whose album “SOS” has been making history of its own, spending nine weeks at number-one on the Billboard 200 as of this writing. That’s an incredibly rare feat for a woman and for an R&B artist, and though the Recording Academy has historically been unkind to women in R&B and hip-hop (just ask Beyonce), this kind of commercial and critical dominance (it has a score of 90 on MetaCritic) might be difficult to ignore.

But a lot will surely happen in the remaining seven months of eligibility (the deadline is September 30). New albums will be announced and released, new chart milestones will be achieved, and perhaps new front-runners will emerge to overtake our early top two. The Grammys are notoriously fickle. This time last year we didn’t anticipate Harry Styles would be the Album of the Year winner, so who could yet take this year’s race by storm?

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Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify record executives and music stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where thousands of showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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