In Grand Forks region, summer of 2022 was warmer and drier than average

Oct. 22—GRAND FORKS — Summer temperatures in the immediate Grand Forks region were warmer than average, according to data compiled by the National Weather Service. Additionally, the total precipitation for the months of June, July and August — 8.17 inches — was nearly two inches below the normal level of 10.1 inches.

Brad Hopkins, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Grand Forks office, said the month of June was particularly hot and dry.

"Our high temperature of the month — 100 degrees — was reached on the 19th, and is only 3 degrees lower than the record set last June, and 23 degrees above the normal high of 77," said Hopkins. "From that day onward, the rest of June experienced above-average heat and below-average precipitation."

While the month of June had the highest recorded temperature, and the most days exceeding 90 degrees with four, July was the warmest month overall. July's mean temperature of 71 degrees was 3 degrees above normal. August cooled to a mean temperature of 69.1 degrees, with only two days exceeding 90.

In terms of precipitation, only the month of July exceeded normal levels, with 4.59 inches of rain — 1.07 inches above normal. June and August precipitation levels were more than an inch below normal, at 2.16 and 1.42 inches, respectively.

Mean temperatures and normal levels of precipitation are derived from 30-year climate averages computed by the National Weather Service, according to Hopkins.

Despite the warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average levels of precipitation this summer, John Wheeler, chief meteorologist for WDAY, said current weather patterns are not far outside historical norms. Areas separated by just a few hundred miles can experience radically different weather each season, he said.

"Weather has a great deal of randomness to it," said Wheeler. "We experienced a drier-than-average summer in Grand Forks and Fargo, but as you travel north toward the Canadian border, things start to change. Southern Manitoba had a very wet summer. Lake Winnipeg had water levels unseen since the 1950s."

When observing weather patterns, Wheeler said it is more beneficial to consult larger scale ranges, often dating back decades, rather than comparing data year by year.

"Historically, we had been experiencing wetter conditions starting in the 1990s, with peak levels of precipitation occurring about 10 years ago," said Wheeler. "We've had drier summers on average since. Similar trends happened between the 1900s until the Dust Bowl period, and also from the 1960s to the 1980s."

Wheeler also said summer weather is harder to predict in North Dakota than more tropical areas.

"The weather is less consistent in the Plains, as opposed to somewhere like the South, where it's typically hot and humid all summer," said Wheeler. "It can be very hot here during the day, but drop down into the 40s at night."

Moving ahead, Wheeler said the region will experience its third consecutive "La Nina." This refers to a cooling of ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which in turn affects weather patterns in North America.

According to Wheeler, La Nina winters increase the probability of colder-than-average temperatures. However, as a meteorologist, he cautions against jumping to conclusions.

"I can't say with impunity what will happen this winter," said Wheeler. "La Nina statistically favors below-average temperatures, but there are many other variables that can impact weather patterns."