Groundhog Day Results: See them here
[Historic snowfall](https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/photos-heavy-snow-hits-western-canada-bc-alberta). [Record-smashing cold](https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/life-threatening-cold-freezes-over-the-prairies-colder-than-arctic). Winter has been in high gear for the first month of 2024 across much of Canada, and that has many Canadians asking an age-old question: Will spring be here soon?
That depends on who you ask. Looks like the Canadian prognosticators are split on the matter, while Punxsutawney Phil in the U.S. cast a vote in favour of early spring.
Snapshot: 2024 results
The holiday is a popular tradition celebrated in North America on February 2. According to folklore, if the groundhog sees its shadow, it will be scared and return to its burrow. That translates to a forecast of six more weeks of winter on the way. Under cloudy skies, the groundhog stays out to visit, suggesting we'll see an early spring.
Not unlike their human counterparts, the marmot meteorologists don't always agree on the forecast. Below is a collection of predictions from many of the continent's prominent weather prognosticators.
2024 GROUNDHOG DAY RESULTS
Lucy The Lobster: Barrington Passage, N.S. - Six more weeks of winter
Who says groundhogs are the only ones that can predict the weather?
Lucy is a local celebrity, drawing a crowd this groundhog day. Unfortunately, for spring lovers, Lucy had bad news. She saw her shadow, and predicted six more weeks of winter.
BREAKING: Lucy sees shadow! Six more weeks of Winter! #GroundhogDay @weathernetwork @MurphTWN pic.twitter.com/XIln6NVxB7
BREAKING: Lucy sees shadow! Six more weeks of Winter! Nathan Coleman on Twitter: "BREAKING: Lucy sees shadow! Six more weeks of Winter! #GroundhogDay @weathernetwork @MurphTWN pic.twitter.com/XIln6NVxB7 / Twitter" Nathan Coleman on Twitter: "BREAKING: Lucy sees shadow! Six more weeks of Winter! #GroundhogDay @weathernetwork @MurphTWN pic.twitter.com/XIln6NVxB7 / Twitter" Nathan Coleman on Twitter: "BREAKING: Lucy sees shadow! Six more weeks of Winter! #GroundhogDay @weathernetwork @MurphTWN pic.twitter.com/XIln6NVxB7 / Twitter" Nathan Coleman on Twitter: "BREAKING: Lucy sees shadow! Six more weeks of Winter! #GroundhogDay @weathernetwork @MurphTWN pic.twitter.com/XIln6NVxB7 / Twitter"
— Nathan Coleman (@NateTWN) Nathan Coleman on Twitter: "BREAKING: Lucy sees shadow! Six more weeks of Winter! #GroundhogDay @weathernetwork @MurphTWN pic.twitter.com/XIln6NVxB7 / Twitter"
Shubenacadie Sam: Nova Scotia - Early spring
Shubenacadie Sam was scheduled to be the first prognosticator to reveal her predictions, but she was fashionably late, making an appearance a few minutes after Lucy.
Sam says early spring.
It's been a snow cloud kind of morning here at the Wildlife Park. It's been a confirmed shadow-LESS prediction by Shubenacadie Sam! An early spring has been predicted.🌷☀️ #ShubenacadieSam #EarlySpring #GroundhodDay2024 pic.twitter.com/3f88tmcqL4
It's been a snow cloud kind of morning here at the Wildlife Park. It's been a confirmed shadow-LESS prediction by Shubenacadie Sam! An early spring has been predicted.🌷☀️ Shubenacadie Sam on Twitter: "It's been a snow cloud kind of morning here at the Wildlife Park. It's been a confirmed shadow-LESS prediction by Shubenacadie Sam! An early spring has been predicted.🌷☀️ #ShubenacadieSam #EarlySpring #GroundhodDay2024 pic.twitter.com/3f88tmcqL4 / Twitter" Shubenacadie Sam on Twitter: "It's been a snow cloud kind of morning here at the Wildlife Park. It's been a confirmed shadow-LESS prediction by Shubenacadie Sam! An early spring has been predicted.🌷☀️ #ShubenacadieSam #EarlySpring #GroundhodDay2024 pic.twitter.com/3f88tmcqL4 / Twitter" Shubenacadie Sam on Twitter: "It's been a snow cloud kind of morning here at the Wildlife Park. It's been a confirmed shadow-LESS prediction by Shubenacadie Sam! An early spring has been predicted.🌷☀️ #ShubenacadieSam #EarlySpring #GroundhodDay2024 pic.twitter.com/3f88tmcqL4 / Twitter" Shubenacadie Sam on Twitter: "It's been a snow cloud kind of morning here at the Wildlife Park. It's been a confirmed shadow-LESS prediction by Shubenacadie Sam! An early spring has been predicted.🌷☀️ #ShubenacadieSam #EarlySpring #GroundhodDay2024 pic.twitter.com/3f88tmcqL4 / Twitter"
— Shubenacadie Sam (@ShubenacadieSam) Shubenacadie Sam on Twitter: "It's been a snow cloud kind of morning here at the Wildlife Park. It's been a confirmed shadow-LESS prediction by Shubenacadie Sam! An early spring has been predicted.🌷☀️ #ShubenacadieSam #EarlySpring #GroundhodDay2024 pic.twitter.com/3f88tmcqL4 / Twitter"
Fred La Marmotte: Quebec - Early spring
After the sudden and tragic loss of Fred La Marmotte last year, event organizer, Roberto Blondin, announced that the tradition would continue this year with Fred’s successor: Fred Junior.
The results were made in front of Permaculture school in Val d'Espoir, and Fred had good news for winter-weary folks: spring is just around the corner!
Wiarton Willie: Ontario - Early spring
(April Walker/The Weather Network)
Willie made his prediction around 8:07 am (EST), calling for an early spring to a crowd of cheers.
The scene in Wiarton on Groundhog Day. (April Walker/The Weather Network)
Folks who didn't attend the festivities can continue the fun Saturday at the free Family Festival Events at Bluewater Park from 10 am to 4 pm. Events this year include a gaming trailer, rock climbing wall, axe throwing, photo booth, human foosball, a trackless train and so much more!
Join us on Feb 2nd for PM with fireworks at 7am & Willie's official prediction at 8:07am. @Country93's Shawn & Julia will emcee! Free skating at Wiarton Arena after! On Feb 3rd, head to Bluewater Park in Wiarton from 10am to 4pm for the Festival of Events! https://t.co/dUkasvRzsx pic.twitter.com/WOEzdqvt4H
Join us on Feb 2nd for PM with fireworks at 7am & Willie's official prediction at 8:07am. Wiarton Willie on Twitter: "Join us on Feb 2nd for PM with fireworks at 7am & Willie's official prediction at 8:07am. @Country93's Shawn & Julia will emcee! Free skating at Wiarton Arena after! On Feb 3rd, head to Bluewater Park in Wiarton from 10am to 4pm for the Festival of Events! https://t.co/dUkasvRzsx pic.twitter.com/WOEzdqvt4H / Twitter"'s Shawn & Julia will emcee! Free skating at Wiarton Arena after! On Feb 3rd, head to Bluewater Park in Wiarton from 10am to 4pm for the Festival of Events! Wiarton Willie on Twitter: "Join us on Feb 2nd for PM with fireworks at 7am & Willie's official prediction at 8:07am. @Country93's Shawn & Julia will emcee! Free skating at Wiarton Arena after! On Feb 3rd, head to Bluewater Park in Wiarton from 10am to 4pm for the Festival of Events! https://t.co/dUkasvRzsx pic.twitter.com/WOEzdqvt4H / Twitter" Wiarton Willie on Twitter: "Join us on Feb 2nd for PM with fireworks at 7am & Willie's official prediction at 8:07am. @Country93's Shawn & Julia will emcee! Free skating at Wiarton Arena after! On Feb 3rd, head to Bluewater Park in Wiarton from 10am to 4pm for the Festival of Events! https://t.co/dUkasvRzsx pic.twitter.com/WOEzdqvt4H / Twitter"
Manitoba Merv - Six more weeks of winter
Manitoba Merv has been leading local Groundhog Day celebrations for over 30 years.
He started as an actor in children's puppet shows at Oak Hammock Marsh Interpretive Centre but has since moved on to a Groundhog Day mascot.
Merv made his bold predictions around 8 am (CST), and it's not looking good for spring enthusiasts. Merv saw his shadow, locking down six more weeks of cold on the Prairies.
Six more weeks of winter Manitoba! Good news is that's average for us. @weathernetwork @weatherchannel pic.twitter.com/MtCoyYkaRW
Six more weeks of winter Manitoba! Good news is that’s average for us. Oak Hammock Marsh on Twitter: "Six more weeks of winter Manitoba! Good news is that's average for us. @weathernetwork @weatherchannel pic.twitter.com/MtCoyYkaRW / Twitter" Oak Hammock Marsh on Twitter: "Six more weeks of winter Manitoba! Good news is that's average for us. @weathernetwork @weatherchannel pic.twitter.com/MtCoyYkaRW / Twitter" Oak Hammock Marsh on Twitter: "Six more weeks of winter Manitoba! Good news is that's average for us. @weathernetwork @weatherchannel pic.twitter.com/MtCoyYkaRW / Twitter"
— Oak Hammock Marsh (@OakHammockMarsh) Oak Hammock Marsh on Twitter: "Six more weeks of winter Manitoba! Good news is that's average for us. @weathernetwork @weatherchannel pic.twitter.com/MtCoyYkaRW / Twitter"
Balzac Billy: Alberta - Six more weeks of winter
In Alberta, we have Balzac Billy, a hog in disguise.
Today, Billy greeted people in person at the Blue Grass Nursery and Garden Centre, predicting six more weeks of winter.
Our neighbour to the south: Punxsutawney Phil
Mr. Phil is calling an early spring!
I bring you GOOD NEWS folks!! I have not seen my shadow!! I PREDICT AN EARLY SPRING!!! #GroundhogDay2024
I bring you GOOD NEWS folks!! I have not seen my shadow!! I PREDICT AN EARLY SPRING!!! Punxsutawney Phil on Twitter: "I bring you GOOD NEWS folks!! I have not seen my shadow!! I PREDICT AN EARLY SPRING!!! #GroundhogDay2024 / Twitter"
— Punxsutawney Phil (@PunxsatawnyPhil) Punxsutawney Phil on Twitter: "I bring you GOOD NEWS folks!! I have not seen my shadow!! I PREDICT AN EARLY SPRING!!! #GroundhogDay2024 / Twitter"
A recap of Groundhog Day predictions, 2020-2023
Groundhog success rate (Source: Groundhog-day.com and Matthew Grinter, a meteorologist at The Weather Network. Graphic: Canva Pro/April Walker, Video Specialist at The Weather Network)
Take a look at how Groundhogs have voted in the past, and you'll find Willie has a sunnier outlook than others.
"Statistically, Willie would likely always have a better chance of predicting an early spring due to Wiarton's placement in the snowbelts, a.k.a. the land of lake-effect snow and cloud," explains Weather Network meteorologist Kelly Sonnenburg. "Willie is a glass half-full type of rodent."
Click here for a refresher on last year's predictions.
