Grounds for optimism? Indiana college-going rate stabilizes

Dec. 7—Jacey Wheeler knew college would be challenging, but that's one of the reasons she decided to pursue her education at Indiana State University, where she is majoring in criminal justice.

"If it was easy, everyone would do it," said the freshman from Indianapolis. "I said I'm going to give myself the opportunity and the chance to do it. I'm going to try — and I'm doing pretty good," she said. "I'm glad I took that leap of faith."

Her goal is to make positive change for people and the world. "I can't do that without going to school longer," she said.

She is pursuing college at a time when many Indiana high school graduates aren't. Between 2015 and 2020, the college-going rate dropped 12 percentage points in Indiana, from 65% to 53%.

Wheeler believes one of the big reasons high school graduates don't pursue college is the cost. She is using scholarships, grants and loans to help pay for her post-secondary education.

She believes it's worth the investment.

Grounds for optimism cited

In June 2022, Indiana Commissioner for Higher Education Chris Lowery sounded the alarm about the decline in the state's college-going rate, which had dropped to just 53% of high school graduates attending college in 2020.

But recently, Lowery cited grounds for optimism and described initiatives that should help improve college-going rates.

In an interview, Lowery said he is "cautiously optimistic" because the college-going rate in the most recent data "has actually flattened out," he said. "We sort of hit a floor at 53%."

That is data from 2021. The Commission has also looked at fall 2023 enrollments, which are up a little more than 2%, or about 5,000 additional students attending the state's public colleges and universities.

That's the first notable increase in 13 years. (A minor increase of 144 students occurred between 2021 and 2022).

One factor could be a "post pandemic effect," in which those who initially had been hesitant to attend college after the pandemic have now decided to enroll, Lowery said.

He also believes some initiatives are starting to have an effect. Those include:

—Expanding dual credit opportunities, with the Legislature providing increased financial support.

—Indiana College Core is offered at 222 high schools this fall, up from 84 two years ago. The College Core is a block of 30 credit hours of general education, college level coursework students can earn while in high school.

It can be transferred between all Indiana public colleges and universities and some private ones.

—A 35% increase to the Frank O'Bannon grant, which is Indiana's primary need-based financial aid program.

With those measures, "I think we're starting to help students see we have ways to help them make college more affordable and accessible," Lowery said.

In addition, over the last decade, state institutions have worked to hold the line on tuition/fee increases, he said. Indiana also is first in the Midwest and fifth in the nation in providing need-based financial aid.

This past session, the Legislature has enacted measures that should help pave the way for more students to attend college.

—All students who qualify will be automatically enrolled in the 21st Century Scholars program.

"I also think we're also going to see students being more successful as we shift our resources to their success rather than signing them up" for the program, Lowery said.

—Indiana students, with some exceptions, are now required to fill out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, known as the FAFSA. Proponents say it will give students a better picture of the money available to them for college.

—The Commission also has a new pre-admissions strategy, in which it reaches out to high seniors, and based on GPA and SAT scores, "We are able to tell them what Hoosier public/private universities and colleges they would be pre-admitted to," Lowery said.

As of September, about 57,000 students have received a letter matching them with colleges and universities.

Of the approximate 57,000 seniors, the average student would be admitted to 24 different public or private institutions in Indiana, and every student would be admitted to at least three — Vincennes, Ivy Tech and Martin University.

Students are not promised direct admission to colleges and universities. They would have to apply to the institution and complete any additional requirements.

"I would say I'm optimistic and hopeful that we're seeing the beginnings of the reversal of what was a very unfortunate trend," Lowery said last month.

Not everyone shares optimism

Michael Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University, suggests it "is premature to label the ICHE data as good news."

He remains concerned about the state's flat college-going rate for first-time, resident students.

While overall public college enrollment has increased in fall 2023, nearly half of the increase is due to students who are not Indiana residents, state data shows.

"That's fine for our colleges and universities, but for the state's economy it is a disaster," Hicks said.

In fall 2018, total public college enrollment was 260,521 and of that, resident enrollment was 190,971.

In fall 2023, total enrollment was 244,639, and of that, resident enrollment was 166,808.

Nationally, according to Hicks, the 'go to college' rates appear to be recovering. It dropped from the low 70's to 65% from 2015-2021.

During that same time frame, Indiana's college-going rate declined from 65% to 53%. The fact that it has stabilized is good news, Hicks agreed.

But Hicks looks at the data in terms of Indiana's overall economy, and from that standpoint, he is not as optimistic.

Over the past 30 years, all the net employment growth nationwide has gone to people who've at least attended college and 81% of it to those with at least a bachelor's degree, he said. "So, our already low 'go to college' rate threatened the state's long term prosperity back in 2015 when enrollment peaked."

He doesn't see signs of much improvement going forward.

The only state policy that will have meaningful affect on enrollments is the expansion of the 21st Century Scholar program, he said. "That doesn't mean the other policies aren't useful, it is just that they just aren't ambitious enough to move the needle."

In the past 15 years, Indiana has slipped in educational attainment from 38th to 42nd, Hicks said, and the decline is accelerating.

"For Indiana to fully participate in the 21st century economy, our college going rate is going to have to rise above the national average for two or more generations. Nothing in the current suite of policies will get us there," Hicks says.

Indiana likely to maintain status quo, but not increase enrollments

Maurice Shirley, an Indiana University assistant professor of higher education and student affairs, believes that compared to the rest of the nation, Indiana "still has reason to be optimistic" when it comes to college-going rates and enrollment.

But he believes it will be more of maintaining some type of status quo rather than growing enrollment. "We shouldn't be too optimistic about increasing enrollments," he said, particularly given the upcoming enrollment cliff.

The "enrollment cliff" refers to the dramatic drop in the college-age population beginning in 2025.

He believes that automatic enrollment of qualifying students in the 21st Century Scholars program "is really going to be that key that helps Indiana maintain its enrollment levels as compared to the rest of the nation."

In addition to the enrollment cliff, the cost of college is another barrier, Shirley said.

"Everyone is worried about the cost," he said. With competing opportunities after graduation, including entrepreneurship, students are questioning if they really want to go heavily into debt.

"College may not be the only pathway or the primary pathway that students and families are pursuing," Shirley said.

Sue Loughlin can be reached at 812-231-4235 or at sue.loughlin@tribstar.com Follow Sue on Twitter @TribStarSue