Is Groupe Guillin (EPA:ALGIL) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Groupe Guillin S.A. (EPA:ALGIL) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Groupe Guillin
What Is Groupe Guillin's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2018, Groupe Guillin had €123.5m of debt, up from €63.9m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of €61.2m, its net debt is less, at about €62.3m.
A Look At Groupe Guillin's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Groupe Guillin had liabilities of €165.1m due within a year, and liabilities of €122.6m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of €61.2m and €140.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total €85.6m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit isn't so bad because Groupe Guillin is worth €341.2m, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Groupe Guillin's net debt is only 0.77 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 132 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Groupe Guillin if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 22% cut to EBIT over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Groupe Guillin's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Groupe Guillin's free cash flow amounted to 43% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Neither Groupe Guillin's ability to grow its EBIT nor its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. We think that Groupe Guillin's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. Given Groupe Guillin has a strong balance sheet is profitable and pays a dividend, it would be good to know how fast its dividends are growing, if at all. You can find out instantly by clicking this link.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.
