GSU Economic Monitor: Regional growth slows, pointing toward stabilizing economy
The Savannah-area economy continued its post-COVID rebound in the first quarter of 2022, but growth slowed from last year's breakneck pace, according to the Economic Monitor, a quarterly report from Georgia Southern University Professor Michael Toma.
Toma analyzed dozens of data sets to determine that they point to a return to longer-range economic trends, signaling a stabilizing local economy after a volatile few years.
"Overall, momentum is good. It is slowing. Part of that slowing momentum is attributed to some wavering in both the logistics industry and the tourism industry," Toma said.
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Tax receipts for tourism-related services such as hotels, motels and rental cars trended down from 2021. In the logistics industry, container movement fell 8% from the final quarter of 2021 to Q1 2022, according to the report. Retail sales also slowed slightly, which could be an indicator of record-high inflation artificially increasing prices.
But, Toma said he suspects those industries experienced a "one-off" of slowdown in the first quarter, and will continue to grow at a steady pace throughout the year.
The Savannah-region's economy is excepted to grow 2% this year, another sign of a return to normalcy after the pandemic. Toma ventured that a recession, forecasted to begin next year, will be mild and not halt the growth momentum wrought by the area's influx of new residents and industrialization.
Thousands of new jobs were added to the market in early 2022, including tourism, service sector, construction and business and professional services. The tight labor market has spurred a much-needed increase in wages, with average pay increasing more than 5% — to an average hourly wage of $25.48 -— since the first quarter of 2021.
"We had really stagnant wages while the rest of the economy, nationwide, wage growth was 5% or 6% and we were stuck at zero or 1%," Toma explained. "So, I think we're kind of in this catch-up mode."
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The housing industry did not slow down, with construction of new single-family homes increasing 10% from the previous quarter. And while the average home valuation decreased to $259,000 from $263,000 over the two quarters, Toma said it's not a sign of the market slowing down.
"With rising mortgage rates, you are starting to see some people who will get priced out of the market," he said.
Zoe covers growth and how it impacts communities in the Savannah area. Find her at znicholson@gannett.com, @zoenicholson_ on Twitter, and @zoenicholsonreporter on Instagram.
This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: Coastal regional growth slows, but points to stabilizing economy
