Guaidó, U.S. have aligned diplomatic strategy as opposition enters talks with Maduro

Venezuelan opposition leaders emerged from talks in Washington last week with a coordinated strategy before entering negotiations with the Nicolás Maduro regime, a top White House official said, settling on a structure for what serious negotiations might look like.

Juan Gonzalez, special assistant to President Joe Biden and Director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council, told McClatchy that opposition leaders left in a united front with the Biden administration ahead of their first round of negotiations, organized by Norway.

At the outset, the preliminary strategy appears to be about designing a structure for the talks that could trigger concessions from each side. Biden administration officials say that a diplomatic architecture has to be in place before they begin to talk about U.S. sanctions relief for Venezuela.

“They’ve laid out what is a time-bound process, in phases, that lead to clear and concrete steps that are irreversible and that lead to a greater democratic opening of the country,” Gonzalez said. “And based on that, [the opposition] signaled their openness to the lifting of sanctions.”

“That’s what our policy is,” Gonzalez said. “U.S. policy is going to respond to concrete steps that show the seriousness of that direction.”

Gonzalez and Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman took part in a series of meetings with opposition figures last week.

During the Obama administration, Sherman led U.S. negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program – a highly structured series of negotiations that lasted over two years, featuring several distinct phases and deadlines.

But talks between Maduro and former National Assembly President Juan Guaidó, the U.S.-backed leader of the opposition, face a unique set of challenges.

The clock is ticking for Guaidó, whose term as interim president comes to a close at the end of the year.

The talks with Maduro are a highly unpopular proposal in Venezuela, as the regime has traditionally used diplomacy to gain time and dispel growing opposition.

And the Guaidó team has little leverage at its disposal entering the talks with a regime that has slowly but steadily solidified its grip on power in Caracas.

U.S. sanctions against Venezuela’s state-run oil company, PDVSA, as well as individual sanctions against high-ranking members of the regime, are the few weapons left in the arsenal of the weakened opposition.

Opposition leaders held meetings this week with key legislators, as well as the State Department, Treasury and White House officials, hoping to clarify what leverage the administration would offer them entering the talks.

“I would say that the leverage that the Guaidó team has, and the broader opposition front, is the United States, and the fact that the United States but also the international community is standing with those Venezuelans that want a democratic future,” Gonzalez said.

While Gonzalez emphasized that sanctions relief would only follow concrete actions from Maduro, he suggested that additional pressure on the Maduro government might serve as leverage for the opposition as talks progress.

“We are very much focused on expanding the international consensus in favor of free and fair elections,” Gonzalez said. “That change in approach by the administration has gone from a small list of key countries that have been siding with the U.S. on Venezuela to a much broader group, including the entire European Union, supporting clear expectations for what needs to be the way forward in Venezuela.”