The Guardians are good enough to be buyers. The Reds will sell anything | Michael Arace

The Major League Baseball trade deadline is 6 p.m. Tuesday, which is to say a glorious weekend of swirling rumors and rampant speculation is upon us. What are the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds to do?

Let us start with Cleveland.

The Guardians are in the thick of the Central Division and wild card races. It would behoove them to act. Heading into the weekend, they were 1.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins in the division and 2.5 games out of a wild-card spot (behind Toronto, Seattle and Tampa Bay).

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For what it’s worth: Baseball Reference gives the Guardians a 41.2% chance of making the playoffs. History says they’ve been proactive in attempts to better their odds.

The Guardians have been active at recent deadlines. They were chasing a championship in 2016 when they landed the big lefthander, Andrew Miller. They added slugger Jay Bruce in 2017, purported slugger Josh Donaldson in 2018 and mountain-of-a-man Franmil Reyes in 2020.

Generally, the Guardians have been pitching-rich, especially starting pitching, and starved for a power hitter. One could argue that they’ve been looking for a big bat since the days of Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome. We’re talking two decades.

Their outfields have lacked thump, which does not suit the modern game. Everyone has three Dave Kingmans in the outfield.

This year, the starting outfielders – Steven Kwan, Nolan Jones and Myles Straw – have combined for ... wait for it … four home runs in 97 games. Oscar Mercado is leading Guardians outfielders with four homers, three more than the number of times he has been released.

Let us say that this is not an outfield that SABRmatricians cotton to. Or, baseball fans.

And then there’s the catching position. Luke Maile and Austin Hedges havecombined for 52 hits in 315 at-bats. They make outs in five out of six at-bats. You don’t have to be a SABRmatrician, or even a fan, to know that is not sterling.

What do you do if you’re Cleveland general manager Mike Chernoff? Do you continue the Sisyphean pursuit of a power-hitting outfielder? The big name out there is Washington’s Juan Soto, an estimable 23-year old slugger with two and a half years left on his current contract.

Keep in mind: Soto has already turned down a 15-year, $440-million contract from the Nationals. You’d have to mortgage the farm to get him, with no guarantee he’d agree to a long-term deal in Cleveland.

The Guardians’ track record of signing stars to long-term contracts is not unlike that of the Blue Jackets. Jose Ramirez is the exception that proves the rule. But things can change, right? Johnny Gaudreau, eh?

The prize catcher on the market is Willson Contreras, who is among the best in the business. He has 10 more home runs than the entire Guardians outfield. Naturally, the Chicago Cubs are seeking a hefty return. Do you want to pay that price to make it to the playoffs, where the mighty New York Yankees and the cheatin’ Houston Astros will be lurking?

The Oakland A’s are ready to trade everyone and they have a capable catcher, Sean Murphy, who’s from Centerville and went to Wright State. The Boston Red Sox, who were 4.5 games out of a wild card spot heading into the weekend, may or may not be shopping Christian Vazquez.

The big picture is important here. This is a season where the Yankees and the Astros in the AL, and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL, are winning two out of every three games they play. If you’re Chernoff, is this a deadline where you sell the farm for an outfielder or a catcher? Or, is the smarter play to make a lesser deal or even stand pat?

The Guardians don’t need much, or many not anything, in a relatively pedestrian AL Central. It’s not like the Twins or the White Sox are about to run away with the division. The Guardians are right there. They hit for average, they field well and they have a strong bullpen. Although their starting pitching has tilted toward disappointing, they don’t need arms.

Per usual, they just need a bat.

They have the wherewithal to get one. Their minor-league system is strong. They have marketable prospects, to say the least. One example is Columbus Clippers infielder Tyler Freeman, who, after recovering from a torn labrum, hit .319 with 17 RBIs in June. The big club is set in the middle infield.

Now, for the annual assessment of the Reds at the trade deadline:

They’re not buyers.

Judging by the swirling rumors and rampant speculation, every Reds player who is not named Hunter Greene or Jonathan India is on the trading block. As Reds president Phil Castellini has said, he’s trying to do the best he can with the resources he has. More with less, in other words. Because that always works.

marace@dispatch.com

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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: MLB trade deadline: Cleveland will be buyers, Reds will be sellers