Guardians should stay out of Juan Soto sweepstakes | Jeff Schudel's Cleveland Beat

Jul. 23—The Guardians, 91 games into the season, are truly one of Major League Baseball's mystery teams.

The Guardians looked lost and clueless after being swept by the Tigers in Detroit earlier in July. They staggered home to Progressive Field with a 41-42 record when they lost two of three in Kansas City after the Detroit debacle.

Since that low point in the season, they split four games with the White Sox in Cleveland, winning the first two games then losing the last two. Next they got revenge on the Tigers by sweeping three games in Cleveland to ride a wave into the All-Star break.

Manager Terry Francona was concerned how his team would play coming out of the break. The Guardians answered with an emphatic 8-2 win in Chicago on July 22. Not only did they win their fourth straight game; they pounded starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, who had dominated the Indians/Guardians prior to then, with nine hits and six earned runs over three innings.

Again, it is worth noting the Guardians have the fortune to play in the mediocre A.L. Central Division. At 47-44 entering July 23, they are 2.5 games out of the last wild-card spot and just 1.5 games behind the first-place Twins in the Central Division. Every time they beat the White Sox (46-47), they widen their lead on the only threat to overtake them in the division.

The Aug. 2 deadline is now less than 10 days away. Should the Guardians get into a bidding war for Nationals slugging 23-year-old right fielder Juan Soto? I say no.

Soto recently turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract offer from the Nationals. That rejection instantly started trade rumors, and then he boosted his stock by winning the Home Run Derby on July 18 during the All-Star festivities at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.

Soto is having a very good season, but not a great one. He is hitting .250, has 20 home runs and 43 RBI. Notably, he leads the major leagues with 79 walks.

Undeniably, Soto would make the Guardians instantly better. He could bat fourth behind Jose Ramirez, but at what cost to what team president Chris Antonetti is trying to build?

Seven Guardians farmhands are listed among the top 100 prospects by MLB.com. Nolan Jones was listed as No. 100, but he was called up when Oscar Gonzalez suffered an injury.

Right-handed pitcher Daniel Espino (ranked 11th by MLB.com), outfielder George Valera (32nd) and RHP Gavin Williams (78th) are currently playing at Double-A Akron. Shortstop Gabriel Arias (80th) is at Triple-A Columbus. Arias has played briefly with the Guardians this season.

Infielder Brayan Rocchio (85th) is playing for the RubberDucks. Infielder Tyler Freeman (86th) and left-handed pitcher Logan Allen (99th) are playing with the Clippers.

The Nationals (31-63) have the worst record in the major leagues. They are seeking prospects or prospects plus young players currently on the big-league club and currently under team control.

Not all prospects prosper when they make it to The Show. Former Indians prospect Bradley Zimmer is the poster boy for failing.

Antonetti might have to give up three prospects plus starting pitcher Triston McKenzie to land Soto. That would be a very steep price.

Adding Soto would make the Guardians better than the Twins, but would one more very good player make them good enough to beat the Yankees or the Astros, or even the Blue Jays in the playoffs? Would he make them better than the Mets or Dodgers in the National League? Probably not.

Here is another factor: Soto is making $17.1 million this year. The team that acquires him via trade would owe the balance of his contract this season. The Guardians might be able to swallow that additional cost, but he is arbitration eligible in 2023 and 2024 before he hits free agency in 2025 — the same year Shane Bieber hits free agency, coincidentally.

At the rate he is playing, Soto might command $25 million in arbitration in 2023 and north of $30 million in 2024. That would be pricey for the money-conscious Guardians and likely prohibit them from adding more talent next season.

Bieber, Josh Naylor, Amed Rosario, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac and Cal Quantrill are all arbitration eligible in 2023.

The Guardians should stay out of the Soto sweepstakes.