Guest Opinion: What to watch for when Biden visits the Middle East
President Biden is scheduled to travel to the Middle East July 13-16 with stops in Israel, Palestinian areas and Saudi Arabia. What are his objectives and how can we tell if he has achieved them?
Israel: While Biden has visited Israel often, the first time some 50 years ago as a young senator, this will be the first trip as president. His primary objective is to reassure Israelis of America’s unwavering commitment to their security, especially in terms of his pledge never to allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. The recent dissolution of Israel’s government means the country will hold its fifth election in four years on Nov. 1. This development complicates Biden’s visit somewhat. Yair Lapid, the center-left leader who, until the government’s demise, had been serving as Israel’s foreign minister, will welcome him as Israel’s interim prime minister. He and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom Biden also will meet consistent with protocol on such visits, will be the main candidates in the next election. In keeping with longstanding tradition, Biden will not express a preference, although it is no secret the administration is more comfortable with Lapid.
The president likely will try to find ways, indirectly, to bolster Lapid’s political fortunes. Thus, Biden is not expected to publicly surface U.S. and Israeli disagreements on Iran and the Palestinians. In addition, the president, reportedly, will announce additional support for Israel’s defense establishment and a joint U.S.-Israel strategic dialogue on technology. The president also has his eye on the midterms. A smooth visit that leaves Israelis feeling Biden indeed has their back would be helpful not only to Lapid, but to Democrats in November as well.
Palestinians: The president is scheduled to meet Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas in Bethlehem. He also plans to visit a hospital in East Jerusalem that serves Palestinians and can be expected to announce resumption of funding to a hospital network in that area of the city, which had been terminated by the Trump administration. This visit may come under attack by Israel’s political right-wing as a violation of Israel’s exclusive sovereignty in its capital city.
The Palestinians would have liked Biden to announce a major diplomatic initiative. But this won’t happen. Israel and the Palestinians are too far apart on final status issues for negotiations to go anywhere. Instead, the president can be expected to reaffirm U.S. commitment to the two-state outcome, an independent Palestine next to Israel. He will urge both sides to avoid actions that make achievement of that outcome more difficult and will encourage mutual confidence-building measures.
The administration has been looking for tangible things it can offer the Palestinians, beyond support for the hospital network, but opportunities for this are limited especially with the Israeli election looming. Another delicate issue Biden was expected to raise on his visit is the shooting of the prominent Palestinian American Al Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh. Palestinians accused Israeli troops of intentionally killing her. Under pressure by members of Congress, the Palestinian Authority handed over the bullet taken from Akleh’s body. After conducting a forensic analysis, American officials concluded that the bullet “likely” was fired from an Israeli weapon and “found no reason to believe that this was intentional but rather the result of tragic circumstances…” It is unlikely that this controversy will be resolved before Biden’s trip.
Saudi Arabia: The Saudi visit is the most consequential part of the president’s trip. Campaigning in 2019, President Biden promised that, if elected, he would make the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) a “pariah” because of his involvement in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Therefore, the first order of business will be to patch relations with MbS so that discussions of bilateral and regional concerns can be conducted in a positive atmosphere.
Administration spokespeople deny that getting the Saudis to increase oil production to offset the loss of Russian energy is the top-line agenda item for the president. Many experts are skeptical that such a move from the Saudis, on top of a recent decision already taken by OPEC Plus nations to increase output over the summer, would significantly lower prices at the pump and slow inflationary pressures in America. Clearly, though, Biden would welcome such a Saudi commitment.
Building on the Abraham Accords, Biden is expected to press the Saudis to publicly announce a modest normalization gesture toward Israel that could help both him and Lapid politically, perhaps allowing flights from Israel to go over Saudi air space. Absent progress on the Palestinian issue, however, the Saudis do not appear ready to join the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and other Arab countries in establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel.
Arguably the most important issue of all will be discussions in Saudi Arabia (and Israel) regarding threats to the region posed by Iran’s nuclear project and its malign regional activities. Leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council plus Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan (GCC+3) will be meeting with Biden to discuss opportunities to advance a regional security alliance. Even incremental progress toward such a U.S.-Israeli-Arab alliance would be seen as a significant achievement. Biden will have to overcome skepticism, though, that the U.S. is prepared to lead such an initiative.
Martin J. Raffel, a resident of Langhorne, spent his professional career engaged in pro-Israel advocacy at the Jewish Council for Public Affairs.
This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Guest Opinion: What to watch for when Biden visits the Middle East
