Gulf disturbance will bring heavy rain to the Miami area. When to expect the worst

Howard Cohen
·5 min read
2

Bottom line from the National Weather Service in Miami: South Florida is facing two to four inches of heavy rain and flooding that could top six inches every afternoon this week through at least Saturday.

As a result, the srevice’s Weather Prediction Center put South Florida under a “Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall” alert effective Wednesday through Saturday.

WSVN meteorologist Vivian Gonzalez reported a funnel cloud over the waters of Fort Lauderdale beach at 10:30 a.m. Wednesday. The weather service issued a special marine warning for the nearshore waters until 11 a.m. for potential waterspout activity.

Flood watch

And Sammy Hadi, a meteorologist with the weather service, issued a flood watch Wednesday afternoon that will remain in effect until Friday evening because of expected rounds of rain.

Affected areas include:

▪ Coastal Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

▪ Far South Miami-Dade County.

▪ Inland Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

▪ Metro Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

▪ Glades and Hendry counties.

What is causing the rain in Miami and Fort Lauderdale?

Blame an upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico slowly approaching Florida near the end of the week that’s bringing all this mess from south of Lake Okeechobee to the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas, meteorologist Ana Torres-Vazquez said in the weather service’s Wednesday morning report.

Some of the thunderstorms could contain strong and gusty winds, along with frequent lightning strikes

Lissette Gonzalez, CBS News Miami meteorologist, says most of the stormy activity will start in the late afternoon hours, and linger through the evenings.

For instance, overall average rain chances for the Miami-Fort Lauderdale areas are 30% pre-afternoon, rising to 60% in the afternoon and 80% at night.

Thursday is looking like a 60% rain chance during the day and 80% in the afternoon and evening hours. Friday is a soggy 80% all day, and Saturday is a 60% and 40% mix.

Wettest times of the days

Sports fans don’t have to worry about storms soaking their drives to Miami Heat or Florida Panthers games. Both team start their series finals out of town.

But Miami-Dade and Broward public schools are still in session for another week. The times you may be picking up your students, or leaving work, are the worst, according to the weather service’s 48-hour hourly outlook concerning rain.

Here are details:

4 p.m. Wednesday: 54% rain and storm chance.

7 p.m. Wednesday: 78% storm chance. Then chances drop overnight to its lowest point — 19% to 17% between 1 a.m. and 4 a.m.

Then the rain starts to surge again steadily increasing Thursday.

10 a.m. Thursday: 63% rain.

1 p.m. Thursday: 78%.

4 p.m. through 7 p.m. Thursday: 82%.

10 p.m. Thursday through 1 a.m. Friday: 74%.

4 a.m.-7 a.m. Friday: 66%.

10 a.m. Friday: 83%.

The rain eases Sunday and Monday at 30%.

The Florida Keys won’t escape wet weather but the chances aren’t as acute as in Miami-Dade and Broward: 50% Wednesday, 60% Thursday, 40% Friday, 30% Saturday and 20% Sunday.

The Gulf trough

National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. Wednesday, May 31, 2023, tropics map shows a disturbance in the Gulf that has a low chance of development but will still bring rains to South Florida Wednesday through Saturday.
National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. Wednesday, May 31, 2023, tropics map shows a disturbance in the Gulf that has a low chance of development but will still bring rains to South Florida Wednesday through Saturday.

Here’s what National Hurricane Center specialist Philippe Papin said in the center’s 2 p.m. Wednesday report about the trough in the Gulf:

▪ An area of low pressure has formed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with disorganized showers and thunderstorms displaced to its northeast.

▪ Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Formation chances are low at 20% into Friday (a bump up from 10% at 8 a.m. Wednesday).

▪ After its meandering, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Formation chances over a week’s time remain still low at 20%.

▪ “Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend,” Papin said in his report.

▪ The storm system is the second reported so far in 2023, days ahead of the June 1 start of the 2023 Hurricane Season.

Hurricane Season 2023

NOAA calls for a near-normal hurricane season for 2023, with 12 to 17 named storms.
NOAA calls for a near-normal hurricane season for 2023, with 12 to 17 named storms.

Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its official prediction for the upcoming hurricane season and said it could be quieter than usual, with a 40% chances at a “near normal” season and a 30% chance of either a below-average or above-average season: 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine of which could develop into hurricanes and one to four that could strengthen into powerful Category 3 or stronger storms.

The agency predicts there’s a 40% chance of a near-normal season and a 30% chance of either a below-average or above-average season.