Possible tropical system brewing over Gulf of Mexico

An area of disturbed weather over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico bears watching for development into this weekend.

"Since Nestor failed to form near the Cabo Verde Islands, the system in the Gulf of Mexico now has a shot at gathering that name instead," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a broad and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that extends from southern Mexico to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

"The system is over warm water and within an environment of low wind shear over the Bay of Campeche," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. Water temperatures in the Gulf range anywhere from the low-80s near the U.S. coast to the mid-80s closer to the Mexican and Guatemalan coasts.

"Regardless of development, we expect this system to produce a blossoming area of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf and along the western and central Gulf Coast later this week into this weekend," Sosnowski said.

It is not until later Friday that any moisture from this system would stream onshore over the central Gulf coast, and not until the weekend that drenching rain would push across the Southeast states.

"Enough rain may fall on the Southeast to further ease drought conditions in the wake of locally heavy rain from Tuesday," Sosnowski said.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows that moderate to severe drought covers much of the Southeast.

"There is also the potential for too much rain to fall in localized areas to trigger flash and urban flooding," Sosnowski added.

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said Wednesday that officials were monitoring the potential for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf.

Edwards cautioned on Twitter that hurricane season was still underway and people should have a plan to get prepared.

If the system were to intensify more quickly than AccuWeather meteorologists currently expect, then the threat of potentially damaging winds and storm surge would increase along the coast.

The burgeoning tropical system is seen in the bottom left of the above image. (Photo/NOAA/GOES East)

At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists believe this system will move ashore somewhere between Louisiana and Florida.

"In terms of the long-range outlook for the Atlantic Basin, there may be signifiant inhibiting factors for tropical development during the latter part of October into early November," Kottlowski said.

"It is possible that tropical activity effectively shuts down after potential Gulf of Mexico system," he added.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through the end of November.

As of Wednesday, Oct. 15, there have been 15 tropical depressions, 13 tropical storms, five hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.

AccuWeather's prediction for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, issued in April, was for 12-14 tropical storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes.

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